Market behavior in August is most coherently explained by macro communication, with microstructure acting as a transmission channel rather than a primary cause. Bitcoin advanced to a verified all time high above $124,000 in the first half, then retraced and stabilized in the low $110,000s into the close, while ether set a new all time high near $4,950 on August 24 before easing with the complex. A large August 29 options expiry concentrated open interest and hedging flows, which muted late month ranges, although the direction and timing of the fade aligned more closely with the July inflation print and Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole message. For context only, not as a forecast, September has historically been a weak month for bitcoin, with stronger average outcomes in October and November, which framed risk management at the margin as August ended. 

The most important inputs into August price formation arrived from the inflation and policy calendar. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that July CPI rose 0.2% month over month and 2.7% year over year, with core up 0.3% month over month and 3.1% year over year, results released on August 12 that signaled slower disinflation in services and kept the debate focused on the timing and pace of any easing. The practical effect was a ceiling on momentum after mid month highs and a floor under risk from the absence of a hawkish surprise, which supported carry and kept funding orderly into month end. 

Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks on August 22 reinforced a cautious stance rather than a directional impulse. The speech placed decisions within a data dependent framework, balanced inflation persistence against labor market softening, and avoided a date certain for any cut, which typically compresses realized volatility as allocators await confirmation across CPI and PCE. That communication pattern was consistent with the calm, two sided tape observed into the final sessions. 

BITCOIN (BTC)

Bitcoin’s trajectory reflected the macro sequence and highlighted how regulated flow channels can translate policy tone into prices without disorderly liquidation. A new all time high above $124,000 was recorded on August 14, after which spot eased into the low $110,000s as the Jackson Hole window approached and attention turned to late month PCE, a path widely described as cooling rather than trend break. Stabilization near prior breakout zones indicated two sided interest even as enthusiasm to add new risk moderated. 

Listed options shaped the texture of the close. Coverage ahead of the August 29 settlement tallied more than $14.6B of combined bitcoin and ether notional expiring, with a tilt toward bitcoin downside protection, a setup that typically encourages pinning around crowded strikes as hedgers rebalance and that translates macro caution into narrower ranges. 

ETHEREUM (ETH)

Ether’s late month leadership combined discrete price milestones with evidence of institutional engagement through regulated wrappers and listed venues. On August 24, a new all time high near $4,950 was recorded, placing ether back in price discovery for the first time since the prior cycle. The marginal buyer and access path were identifiable, since regulated funds and exchange cleared futures dominated the flow that accompanied the move. 

Primary market prints captured a run of unusually large net inflow in U.S. spot ether ETFs during the final week, including approximately $443.9M on August 25, about $455M on August 26, and around $309.5M on August 27, which coincided with the new high and signaled persistent demand via regulated channels. The largest single-day inflow of the month was $1.02B on August 11, underscoring the scale of capital rotation into ether ETFs during the rally. Across the full month, ether ETFs recorded $3.87B in net inflows, while bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $751M, highlighting that ether led liquidity flows in August. 

The futures footprint corroborated that institutional presence. Open interest in ether futures on CME climbed above $10B near August 28, alongside growth in large open interest holders, a combination that typically appears when professional participation broadens. Options positioning appeared more balanced in ether than in bitcoin into the August 29 event, which is consistent with less pronounced pinning when concurrent spot demand persists. The moderation into the close therefore read as macro driven caution that capped follow through after the high, not as a loss of structural sponsorship.