Powell Holds Interest Rates Despite Trump Pressure

19th June 2025 • 10 mins read

This Week’s Recap

Jerome Powell Refuses to Change Interest Rates

On June 18, 2025, the Federal Reserve opted to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.25 percent to 4.50 percent. Chair Jerome Powell noted that although inflation has eased closer to the Fed’s two percent target, uncertainty driven by trade tariffs and geopolitical tensions warrants caution and weighs against immediate rate cuts. While projections still include the possibility of two quarter-point reductions later this year, a growing number of policymakers now see cuts as unnecessary given solid labor market conditions and lingering price pressures

CoinMarketCap Research Lead Alice Liu said she will be watching Powell’s comments on inflation closely because hints of fewer cuts could cause Bitcoin to test support at $91,500. Crypto trading firm XBTO noted that traders are focused squarely on the Federal Open Market Committee’s dot plot chart, since seeing fewer than two projected cuts would cement the higher-for-longer narrative and strengthen the dollar, while a more dovish outlook could unfreeze crypto bids . The median dot plot still signals a half-percentage-point of cuts by year-end, but the number of officials expecting no cuts rose to seven from four in March, and markets that had priced a June cut at nearly seventy percent in early May have scaled back those odds sharply. 

Source: https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/how-to-read-fed-dot-plot-explained/#what-is-the-fed-s-dot-plot 

President Trump reacted angrily to the hold, calling Chair Powell “a stupid person” who was “costing the country a fortune” and pressing for at least two percentage points of rate cuts to lower mortgage costs and stabilize home-buying and construction. Housing permits plunged 2.7 percent to a two-year low of 898,000 units in May and starts fell nearly 10 percent to a five-year trough as elevated rates squeezed affordability. Trump has threatened to remove Powell when his term ends and floated installing a more dovish successor such as former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh or economist Judy Shelton, moves analysts warn could tilt policy toward earlier, deeper cuts and reignite rallies in risk assets including cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin Market Analysis

Over the past seven days Bitcoin traded between roughly $103,600 and $108,8000, holding that corridor even as tensions between Israel and Iran intensified and Fed Chair Powell announced no rate cut. Midweek price briefly popped to about $108,000 before selling off into the $105,000 area, where buyers stepped in and consolidation set in. Throughout, Bitcoin remained comfortably above its 200-day moving average near $95,800, underscoring the long-term uptrend, and the $100,000 to $103,000 zone continued to act as a reliable floor after serving as resistance earlier this year.

Source: https://altfins.com/

Technically the 14-period RSI sits around 50, indicating balanced momentum and no overextended conditions. The MACD line crossed below its signal line several days ago and remains slightly negative, showing recent buying pressure has eased. Price has been carving out a rising wedge pattern since early May and this formation often precedes a deeper pullback if the lower trend line breaks. Trading volume has declined during the late-week sell-off, suggesting participation has waned and that a drop back toward $100,000 could attract fresh buyers.

Metaplanet surprised the market by issuing $210 million in zero-coupon bonds to buy 10,000 BTC at an average cost near $94,700 per coin, pushing its treasury past Coinbase’s holdings. At the same time Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has boosted its stash to roughly 592,100 BTC—worth over $63 billion—by tapping perpetual preferred shares for fresh funding. Both cases show how companies are using debt and equity instruments to scale Bitcoin exposure, but investors should keep an eye on bond maturities, dividend obligations and any widening gap between share prices and net asset value, since leverage and dilution risks rise if BTC’s price dips.

On the supply and liquidity side, U.S.-listed miners now supply about 31.6 percent of global hashpower, up from 21 percent a year ago, thanks to new capacity and competitive power contracts. Meanwhile spot Bitcoin ETFs are set to handle around 25 percent of all BTC spot-market volume by mid-2025, up from 10 percent in late 2024. That shift boosts order-book depth and narrows bid-ask spreads, but it also redirects demand toward regulated vehicles and away from unhosted wallets. A balanced approach—mixing direct Bitcoin holdings with ETF allocations—can help investors capture liquidity gains while managing custody and market-structure risks.

Institutions are clearly leading the charge in this $100 k to $110 k range. ETF netflows recently surged by roughly 128,000 BTC in a single 30-day span, the largest inflow since early 2024, and that shows regulated asset managers and traditional finance firms are aggressively adding to their Bitcoin stacks. These buyers include big fund families launching spot-Bitcoin ETFs and large custodial platforms that can store hundreds of millions in BTC. Their moves reflect growing confidence in Bitcoin as a reliable store of value and an inflation hedge, especially now that ETFs handle nearly a quarter of global spot-market volume.

Source: https://cryptoquant.com/

At the same time, whale deposits to Binance roughly doubled overnight, jumping from $2.3 billion to $4.6 billion in on-chain value, which tells us high-net-worth individuals, hedge funds and trading desks are stocking up at these prices. These big holders aren’t selling off. They’re moving coins onto exchanges to support major buy orders, likely to arbitrage between ETF premiums and spot markets or lock in liquidity for margin and derivatives trading. The combined ETF and whale moves paint a clear picture of deep-pocket investors getting ready for the next run, confident that demand will outpace supply in this price bracket.

Ethereum Market Analysis

Over the past seven days Ethereum traded between roughly $2,400 and $2,800, hitting stiff resistance at the $2,760 level before pulling back into the $2,500 area. That rejection coincided with broader crypto market pressure from Fed Chair Powell’s decision not to cut rates and escalating geopolitical tensions, both of which weighed on risk assets. Early in the week a surge of optimism around US regulators potentially approving spot-ETH ETFs with staking briefly lifted sentiment, but it wasn’t enough to break through that ceiling.

Source: https://altfins.com/ 

From a technical standpoint the short-term trend is down, the medium-term trend remains up and the long-term trend is neutral. The 14-period RSI sits near 50, indicating balanced momentum, while the MACD line crossed below its signal line several days ago and suggests fading upside pressure.

Ethereum has hit a new all-time high in staking, with over 35 million ETH locked. Lido leads the way with about 9 million ETH staked—roughly 26 percent of the total—while Binance and Coinbase each hold around 2.6 million ETH. Rocket Pool has drawn in hundreds of thousands of ETH by letting users run their own nodes without the full 32 ETH requirement, and Kraken’s U.S. staking service has also gained traction. Together, these platforms are strengthening network security and underscoring growing investor conviction in Ethereum’s long-term value.

Source: https://cryptoquant.com/

Yields range from about 3 percent APR on Lido’s stETH to just over 2 percent on Coinbase. Kraken pays up to 6.5 percent. Higher returns look appealing but carry added counterparty and code risks. Investors should balance yield against platform reputation, governance transparency and withdrawal flexibility when choosing where to stake their ETH.

Mark Your Calendars

Economic Data Releases:

  • June 26, 2025 (Thursday): GDP (Second Revision)
  • June 27, 2025 (Friday): PCE Index

Token Unlock

  • June 20, 2025: MRS (MRS) unlocks $219.60 M (<0.01 % of market cap)
  • June 22, 2025: MURA (MURA) unlocks $2.19 M (1.00 % of market cap)
  • June 24, 2025: IOTA (IOTA) unlocks $2.51 M (0.39 % of market cap)
  • June 25, 2025: VENOM (VENOM) unlocks $9.44 M (2.85 % of market cap)