Fed Holds Rates as Ethereum ETF Inflows Hit New Highs

Fed Holds Rates, GDP Beats Forecast as Ethereum Outpaces Sideways Bitcoin

31st July 2025 • 11 mins read

This Week’s Recap

Fed holds rates at 4.25–4.50% and shows no rush to cut: The Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep the benchmark rate steady at 4.25–4.50% in a split decision with two dissenters. Markets pared back odds of a September rate cut from around 65% to 46% after Chair Powell emphasised the need for more data before easing. The dollar and Treasury yields rose while equities saw mixed reactions as investors adjust to a prolonged restrictive policy stance.
Rebound in US economic growth in Q2 masks underlying weakness: U.S. GDP grew at an annualized 3.0 percent rate in Q2, exceeding economists’ forecast of 2.4 percent. Declining imports accounted for the bulk of the rebound while consumer and business demand rose at its slowest pace in over two years. The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged at 4.25–4.50 percent, citing mixed growth signals and persistent inflation risks.
Early investor sells 80,000 BTC in one of the largest-ever Bitcoin transactions: On July 28, Galaxy Digital confirmed it facilitated the sale of 80,000 BTC as part of an estate-planning strategy, one of the largest single-block transactions in history. The move highlights renewed OTC activity as large holders adjust portfolios. Analysts see it as neutral for price action given the orderly execution and existing liquidity.
$5.5 B lost in a day: How a Bitcoin loan turned into a $5.5 B black hole for Ricardo Salinas Pliego: Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego revealed a fake-loan scheme cost him $5.5 billion in Bitcoin after funds vanished overnight. The fraud involved sophisticated impersonation tactics and highlights counterparty risks in unregulated lending. Legal actions are now underway amid calls for stricter due-diligence in crypto credit markets.
Ether Treasuries Target Yield, but Risk Looms, Says Wall Street Broker Bernstein: Bernstein analysts forecast increased demand for ETH from corporate treasuries seeking yield amid a low-interest-rate environment. They caution that limited liquidity and DeFi counterparty exposure could amplify price swings. The report highlights the need for robust risk management as institutional allocations to Ether expand.
White House Report to Support Crypto Rules Just Don’t Expect Bitcoin Reserve Details: The President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets published a 160-page report outlining proposed regulatory and legislative changes for U.S. cryptocurrency markets. It calls for clearer guidance from the SEC and CFTC on registration, custody requirements, and regulatory sandboxes. The report designates the CFTC as the primary regulator for non-security digital assets while omitting specifics on any federal Bitcoin reserve.
White House’s Genius Act Brings First Federal Stablecoin Rules, Treats Issuers as Banks: The Genius Act establishes the first federal regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers, classifying them similarly to banks. It proposes capital, liquidity, and consumer-protection requirements designed to enhance market confidence. The legislation also includes provisions to modernize infrastructure for blockchain-based securities trading.
White House Unveils Pro-Crypto “Roadmap” but Omits Reserve-Buying Plans: On July 30, the administration released a detailed policy roadmap targeting the SEC, CFTC, IRS, and Treasury to streamline compliance and clarify guidelines across taxation, banking, and cybersecurity. The document emphasizes support for DeFi, staking, and retirement-account integrations. It makes no mention of any new federal Bitcoin purchase program, leaving the status of a strategic reserve unclear.
White House to Release Landmark Crypto Policy Report from Trump-Era Working Group: The White House is set to publish its first public crypto policy report from a working group established by President Trump, outlining comprehensive legislative and regulatory proposals. It emphasizes tokenization frameworks for traditional assets, guidance for stablecoin oversight, and clear roles for the SEC and CFTC. Industry participants have welcomed the initiative, though concerns about Trump’s ties to crypto lobbyists persist.
Rouble-Backed Crypto Transfers Exceed $40 B After July Spike: On July 29, rouble-pegged stablecoins and other crypto transfers through Russian platforms surpassed $40 billion for the month. The surge was driven by heightened demand amid sanctions and limited access to traditional banking rails. Observers note the trend underscores the growing role of digital assets in bypassing financial restrictions.
SEC Approves In-Kind Creations and Redemptions for Crypto ETPs: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission adopted new rules allowing authorized participants to use crypto assets directly when creating or redeeming shares of exchange-traded products. The change aims to reduce tracking error and improve liquidity for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs. Market makers expect tighter spreads and increased institutional participation as a result.
Pakistan Fast-Tracks Crypto into Traditional Banking and Forex Markets: Pakistan’s central bank has granted crypto exchanges access to banking and foreign-exchange facilities, enabling direct on- and off-ramps for retail and corporate users. The move is intended to bolster remittances and foster financial inclusion in underserved regions. Observers caution that robust compliance frameworks will be crucial to manage anti-money-laundering and counter-terror financing risks.
JPMorgan Chase and Coinbase Partner for Seamless Bank-to-Wallet Integration: JPMorgan Chase and Coinbase announced a partnership that lets Chase customers link their bank accounts directly to Coinbase wallets, enabling seamless transfers between traditional banking and crypto exchange platforms. Starting next year, customers will be able to convert Chase Ultimate Rewards points into cryptocurrency at a rate of 100 points per $1 of digital assets, and this fall they can purchase crypto with their Chase credit cards. The integration marks a significant step in bridging retail banking and cryptocurrency services under a unified user experience.
JPMorgan to Enable Crypto Purchases via Credit Cards in Coinbase Tie-Up: JPMorgan will allow customers to use Chase credit cards to purchase cryptocurrencies on Coinbase beginning this fall, reducing friction in fiat-to-crypto onramps. The tie-up also includes plans to enable direct exchange of credit card rewards for USDC stablecoins next year, expanding payment options for digital asset investments. The move underscores a broader trend of major banks integrating crypto offerings to meet growing consumer demand.
PayPal Rolls Out “Pay with Crypto” for Near-Instant, Low-Cost Global Settlements: PayPal launched its “Pay with Crypto” feature on July 28, allowing merchants to accept payments in over 100 cryptocurrencies with near-instant settlement. The service automatically converts crypto payments into PayPal’s PYUSD stablecoin or fiat, offering transaction fee savings of up to 90% compared to international credit card processing. By integrating with leading wallets like Coinbase and MetaMask, PayPal aims to lower barriers for cross-border commerce and expand digital payment options globally.
Crypto Inflows Surge to $60 B Year-to-Date, Outpacing Private Equity: JPMorgan: JPMorgan’s mid-year report shows cryptocurrency funds have attracted roughly $60 billion in net inflows through July 2025, surpassing the pace of global private‐equity investments. The rapid inflows are driven by growing institutional allocations to Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded products. Analysts warn that while strong demand underscores bullish sentiment, potential market corrections could appear if macroeconomic headwinds intensify.

Bitcoin Market Analysis

Over the past seven days Bitcoin’s price moved from a low of $115,184 to a high of $119,568. Its weakest daily close was $117,541 on July 26, while the strongest daily close occurred at $119,419 on July 28. As of July 31 the coin sits at $118,421, marking a modest 0.4 percent gain in the last 24 hours, with average daily volume holding near $71.2 billion and a 14-day ATR of $2,732 indicating moderate intraday volatility.

Source: TradingView

On the technical front momentum readings paint a mixed picture. The MACD line slipped below its signal line in late June, signaling a bearish tilt in near-term momentum even as the Ultimate Oscillator remains in bullish territory. The 14-day RSI rests comfortably between 30 and 70, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Across most timeframes, from the 10-day SMA through the 200-day SMA and key EMAs, moving averages slope upward, confirming that the broader trend remains strongly positive.

Looking ahead the next support sits at $112,000, followed by $100,000, and should provide a healthy floor on any pullback. On the upside the breakout above $112,000 opens room toward $121,000 as the first resistance zone, with a further hurdle at $130,000 if buying pressure persists. A sustained move above $121,000 on stronger volume would signal continued upside potential, while a fall below $100,000 would sharpen focus on lower supports.

Source: https://sosovalue.com/assets/etf/us-btc-spot

Despite price trading in a sideways range, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen robust inflows this week, with daily net contributions ranging from $47 million to $226 million and cumulative net inflows now exceeding $55 billion. Total net assets under management dipped slightly from $154 billion on July 24 to around $151 billion by July 30, reflecting some profit-taking by shorter-term holders even as institutions continue to add aggressively. Year-over-year AUM has surged from approximately $51 billion to $151 billion, underscoring sustained institutional accumulation despite muted spot price movement.

In parallel with strong ETF inflows, Charles Schwab’s Q3 2025 Trader Sentiment Survey shows that bullishness among active traders rebounded to 57 percent, the highest level since 2022, while recession fears eased sharply from 63 percent in Q2 to 31 percent in Q3. Despite growing optimism, 57 percent of respondents still believe the market is overvalued and only 24 percent express high conviction in their three-month outlook, while 85 percent expect volatility to remain steady or increase through year-end. Notably, 80 percent plan to buy the dip amid further volatility, highlighting traders’ readiness to engage opportunistically even as institutions continue aggressive accumulation.

Ethereum Market Analysis

Over the past seven days Ethereum traded in a $431 range, dipping to an intraday low of $3,509.40 on July 24 and peaking at $3,940.65 on July 28. Its weakest daily close was $3,625.33 on July 24, while the strongest daily close reached $3,870.00 on July 27. As of July 31 the asset sits at $3,860.08, up 1.14 percent over the prior 24 hours, with average daily volume near $33.3 billion and a 14-day ATR of $166.38 indicating moderate volatility.

Source: https://altfins.com/technical-analysis

On the technical front momentum readings are mixed; several RSI timeframes (9, 14 and 25) register overbought conditions, while the MACD line sits below its signal line, reflecting bearish crossover pressure. The Ultimate Oscillator remains bullish and the ADX indicates a strong trend, suggesting underlying strength despite overextension. Bollinger Bands span $2,961.51 to $4,164.88, with price comfortably within the bands, and unusual volume spikes point to heightened trader interest.

Looking ahead key support levels lie at $3,000 and $2,760, which should act as a floor on any corrective move, while immediate resistance zones are clustered around $3,940 and the psychological $4,000 mark. A sustained break above $3,940 on elevated volume would clear the path toward the 52-week high of $4,107, whereas a drop below $3,000 could expose lower supports. Given current overbought signals traders may see a near-term pause or mild pullback before the next leg higher.

Source: https://sosovalue.com/assets/etf/us-eth-spo

Meanwhile, Ethereum spot ETFs have now recorded 19 consecutive days of net inflows, adding $5.79 million on July 30 and bringing total assets under management to $21.428 billion, or approximately 4.71% of Ethereum’s market capitalization. BlackRock’s ETHA led the inflows with $20.29 million for the day, lifting its cumulative net inflows to $9.724 billion, while Grayscale’s ETHE added $7.77 million. Fidelity’s FETH bucked the trend with a net outflow of $22.27 million, underscoring differentiated institutional positioning within the ETF complex.

Ethereum’s recent bullish confirmations, including a clear break above $3,940 on elevated volume, have refocused investor attention on its broader DeFi ecosystem. Total DeFi TVL climbed to $153 billion, its highest level since May 2022, driven by ETH’s 60 percent rally and renewed institutional appetite for yield strategies such as restaking and looping between protocols. July also saw a record $11.2 billion flow into crypto investment products, with a substantial portion earmarked for Ethereum vehicles, underscoring growing institutional allocation to ETH. Meanwhile high-net-worth and institutional funds are amplifying ETH exposure via vehicles like the Ether Machine SPAC, funneling capital into staking and derivatives protocols and reinforcing Ethereum’s central role in DeFi yield generation .

This renewed DeFi revival centers on marquee protocols capitalizing on the surge in TVL and on-chain activity. Today Ethereum controls roughly $84.2 billion in total DeFi value locked, highlighting its dominance as the settlement layer for decentralized finance. Liquid staking leader Lido and decentralized lending giant Aave each manage over $32 billion in assets, reflecting robust demand for staking derivatives and credit markets . Automated market makers such as Uniswap have benefited as well, with Uniswap v4’s TVL surpassing $1 billion in just 21 days post-launch, which underscores the accelerating adoption of innovative liquidity solutions . With fresh liquidity entering these blue chip protocols, Ethereum’s DeFi landscape has strong potential to expand further.