Bitcoin and Ethereum Pull Back Ahead of Powell’s Speech

21st August 2025 • 10mins read

This Week’s Recap

  • Hawkish FOMC Minutes Knocks the Legs Out of Crypto Bounce: The Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes revealed a majority of participants saw inflation risks outweighing employment concerns, which halted the crypto bounce. The pullback highlights renewed macro caution ahead of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, reinforcing pressure on risk assets. Markets will now focus on that speech to gauge whether there is a shift toward easing sentiment.
  • Ether, Solana, BNB Outshine Bitcoin as Cryptos Rebound: Major altcoins including Ether, Solana, and BNB rebounded strongly, while Bitcoin’s recovery remained modest. This divergence points to altcoins gaining relative strength, potentially signaling an evolving “altseason.” Investors should track the ETH/BTC ratio as an indicator of broader capital rotation.
  • Bitcoin Drops Below $114 K, Ether Loses $4.2 K as Jackson Hole Speech Might Bring Hawkish Surprise: Bitcoin slid below $114 000 and Ether fell under $4 200 as investors grew cautious ahead of the Fed Chair’s speech at Jackson Hole. The weakness reflects renewed concern that Powell may adopt a hawkish tone, dampening hopes for a near-term rate cut. Market attention now centers on the speech to reassess the path of monetary policy.
  • Bitcoin, Ethereum Rise After Fed Minutes Shed Light on Rate-Cut Dissent: Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounded after minutes revealed two Federal Reserve governors dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point rate cut. The document showed growing internal debate over policy direction within the Fed. Markets interpreted this as a potential signal of easing ahead of Jackson Hole.
  • Crypto Market in ‘Fear,’ But Ethereum, Solana and Chainlink Stay Strong: Despite market sentiment falling into “fear,” Ethereum, Solana, and Chainlink outperformed Bitcoin. The resilience indicated selective rotation into major altcoins even under cautious conditions. Traders noted these assets as relative strength plays amid broader uncertainty.
  • ETH/BTC Ratio Hits 2025 High as Spot Ethereum ETFs Draw Major Inflows, Treasuries Surpass 2 % of Supply: The ETH/BTC ratio climbed to a 2025 high as Ethereum ETFs recorded strong inflows. Corporate and institutional treasuries now hold more than 2 % of the total supply. Analysts say this reflects shifting demand dynamics favoring Ethereum over Bitcoin.
  • SoFi to become first US bank to integrate Bitcoin Lightning, UMA: SoFi will integrate Bitcoin’s Lightning Network and Universal Money Address via a partnership with Lightspark to enable lower cost international remittances. The initiative targets the 740 billion dollars remittance market and brings faster transfers inside SoFi’s app. The firm indicated further availability details will follow as the rollout progresses.
  • Crypto funds post 3.75 billion dollars inflows, driven by Ether ETFs’ record volumes: Crypto investment products registered 3.75 billion dollars of net inflows over the past week, led by strong demand for spot Ether ETFs. Ether products dominated recent inflow streaks while Bitcoin funds contributed a smaller share. Observers are watching whether the momentum in Ether ETFs sustains as market conditions remain volatile.
  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs post 523 million dollars daily outflows, ETH ETFs shed 422 million dollars: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded 523 million dollars in net outflows in a single day, while spot Ether ETFs saw 422 million dollars exit. The moves were attributed to institutions repositioning ahead of key macro events. Flows remain sensitive to policy signals and broader risk sentiment.
  • Ronin rejoins Ethereum as rollup strategies diverge: Ronin will migrate from a standalone sidechain to an Ethereum layer-2 rollup, aligning transaction data with Ethereum’s settlement layer. The pivot reflects a broader shift of L1s toward Ethereum’s rollup ecosystem. Developers and users will watch how the transition impacts adoption and liquidity.
  • 2 B dollar Bitcoin RWA plan bets on scarcer retail access: A 2 billion dollar initiative is targeting Bitcoin-based real-world assets while restricting direct retail involvement. The structure aims to drive institutional participation and create scarcity effects. Critics caution it may erode Bitcoin’s open access principles.
  • Top Win becomes first Taiwan-listed company to establish a 10 M dollar Bitcoin treasury: Taiwanese manufacturer Top Win allocated 10 million dollars to Bitcoin reserves, marking a first for a listed firm in Taiwan. The move highlights Bitcoin’s growing role in corporate treasury management. Observers view it as part of a larger trend of Asian corporate adoption.
  • Rollup reality check: It’s the L1s that are defecting: Independent layer 1 chains such as Celo and Lisk are migrating to Ethereum as rollups rather than rollups abandoning Ethereum. The shift reflects the pull of Ethereum liquidity, security, and developer network effects. Analysts will track migration milestones and user activity to see whether the trend accelerates.
  • Ethereum ETFs to Overtake BTC ETFs by Supply Held in September: Ethereum ETF holdings now account for around 5.08 % of ETH supply, nearing Bitcoin ETFs’ 6.38 %. If current trends continue, ETH ETFs could surpass BTC ETFs as a percentage of supply by September. The tipping point may prompt renewed institutional focus on Bitcoin vs Ethereum allocations.
  • TeraWulf Stock Soars as Google Increases Bitcoin Miner Investment to 14%: Google increased its stake in TeraWulf to 14 %, backing the company’s data center expansion. The move accompanies multi year hosting deals that align TeraWulf with AI and high performance computing demand. Investors will watch execution on capacity build out and revenue realization.
  • Robinhood Lists SUI for U.S. Customers Amid Price Downtrend: Robinhood added SUI trading for U.S. users. The listing coincided with broader market weakness that kept SUI under pressure. Liquidity and access may improve distribution if sentiment stabilizes.
  • Tom Lee’s BitMine Buys Ethereum Dip, Adds 220 million dollars in ETH: BitMine purchased approximately 220 million dollars worth of ETH during the recent decline. The buy reflects continued accumulation despite volatility. Observers view the move as a conviction signal on Ethereum’s outlook.

Bitcoin Market Analysis

Bitcoin’s rally to a fresh record high near $124K quickly gave way to a sharp pullback as hotter-than-expected U.S. producer price data reignited inflation fears. Over the past seven days, the market traced a range between $124K and $112K, ending the week down about 7.6%. The price action reflects a classic pullback within a broader uptrend: while the short-term structure turned lower, the medium- and long-term trend remains intact, with higher highs and higher lows still defining the chart.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ 

Technically, Bitcoin is in consolidation mode. Momentum gauges such as RSI are neutral, while oscillators lean oversold, suggesting that downside pressure may be fading. MACD and momentum remain bearish in the near term, but moving averages from 50 to 200 days continue to slope higher, which underscores structural strength. Key levels are well defined: $112K as immediate support and $100K as the deeper backstop, with resistance clustered around $121.7K to $124K. Volatility, measured by ATR at about $2.9K, remains elevated but orderly, which is consistent with the idea of a trend that has paused rather than reversed.

In the lead-up to the Fed minutes and Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, Bitcoin traded with resilience, still supported by earlier ETF inflows and relative strength in altcoins. That resilience cracked once the minutes revealed a hawkish bias, with inflation concerns prioritized over employment, which drained momentum from the bounce. By the time Powell’s speech came into focus, BTC had already retreated to the $114K area, reflecting market caution and positioning ahead of potential policy surprises. This sequence ties directly to the week’s high-to-low move, with macro policy uncertainty acting as the catalyst for the pullback described in the opening analysis.

Source: https://sosovalue.com/

ETF flows provided another layer to the picture. After a strong run of inflows earlier in the month, spot Bitcoin ETFs flipped to heavy outflows, including $523M on Aug 19 and $312M on Aug 20, dragging total net assets from $153B to $147B. While this shift signaled tactical repositioning into macro risk events, broader crypto products continued to see strength, with $3.75B of net inflows led overwhelmingly by Ether ETFs. This divergence highlights how capital did not leave the digital asset space entirely but instead rotated, pushing the ETH/BTC ratio to a 2025 high and reinforcing Ethereum’s rising institutional share.

Against this backdrop, the message is clear: Bitcoin remains in a strong long-term uptrend but is navigating a short-term cooling phase shaped by macro headwinds and cautious positioning. Pullbacks toward the $112K level look more like pauses than breakdowns, especially as institutional adoption headlines such as SoFi’s Lightning integration and Taiwan’s first listed corporate treasury allocation show the ecosystem deepening. For now, Bitcoin is consolidating recent gains, but with rate cuts still expected within the next four months, the path remains open for the uptrend to resume once macro clouds clear.

Ethereum Market Analysis

Ethereum’s rally above the $4K breakout level brought it within striking distance of its all-time high at $4,878 before sellers forced a rejection. Over the past week, ETH traded between $4,378 and $4,062, ending about 9.7% lower. Despite the drawdown, the structure remains bullish: ETH is up more than 66% year-on-year, sits well above its 52-week low, and continues to trace higher highs and higher lows across medium- and long-term timeframes.

Technicals show a market pausing rather than breaking down. RSI remains neutral, indicating that ETH is neither overbought nor oversold, while StochRSI has slipped into oversold territory, hinting at rebound potential. MACD and the Ultimate Oscillator lean bearish in the near term, but momentum measures are supportive and both SMA and EMA trends from 10-day through 100-day slope firmly higher. Support rests at $4K and then $3,450, while resistance sits near the ATH zone at $4,880 and the psychological $5K round number. With ATR near $230, volatility is elevated but consistent with an uptrend taking a breather.

Price action into the Fed minutes and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech mirrored Bitcoin’s trajectory. ETH’s early-week strength, driven by ETF momentum and altcoin outperformance, lost steam once the minutes signaled inflation concerns still outweigh employment. By the time Powell’s speech was in focus, ETH had already retreated toward $4,200, reflecting a cautious repricing of risk. This sequence ties into the broader pullback narrative, where macro policy uncertainty has temporarily capped ETH’s breakout toward $5K.q

Source: https://sosovalue.com/

Flows underscore the institutional battle lines. Spot ETH ETFs saw record inflows earlier in the month, including $1.02B on Aug 11 and $729M on Aug 13, before flipping to outflows of $429M on Aug 19 and $240M on Aug 20. Cumulative net inflows remain above $12B, with total net assets near $27B, highlighting that institutions continue to allocate despite short-term repositioning. At the same time, BitMine’s $220M ETH purchase and corporate treasuries now holding more than 2% of supply reinforce that ETH’s role in institutional portfolios is expanding.

The bigger picture is one of rotation. The ETH/BTC ratio has pushed to a 2025 high, Ethereum-based funds now account for the bulk of crypto inflows, and forecasts suggest ETH ETFs could surpass BTC ETFs by supply held as early as September. Altcoins like Solana and Chainlink have also outperformed, confirming a broader shift of capital beyond Bitcoin. For Ethereum, the next catalyst could be regulatory approval for staking within spot ETFs, a change that would deepen yield-driven demand and further entrench ETH as the backbone of decentralized finance. In the near term, the $4K support zone is key, but the structural uptrend remains intact with the path back toward $5K open once macro clouds clear.

Altcoin Sector Rotation

Bitcoin dominance has retreated from its peak above 66% in late June to just under 60% this week, a steep decline that confirms liquidity rotation is underway. This shift aligns with what typically happens when Bitcoin approaches cycle highs: profit-taking accelerates, and capital moves down the risk curve into assets with higher upside. The ETH/BTC ratio reaching fresh 2025 highs provided an additional signal, reinforcing that this is more than a short-term move and that investors are now looking beyond Bitcoin for performance.

Sector performance data underscores the change in leadership. Exchange tokens surged 25.1% in the past month, Ethereum gained 15.6%, and perp DEX tokens added 3.3%. In contrast, DeFi fell 8.4%, RWAs dropped 15%, AI tokens slid 23.1%, and the Bitcoin ecosystem itself sank 21.9%. This divergence shows that rotation is not broad-based; instead, liquidity is concentrating in tokens and sectors with strong narratives and institutional alignment. Ethereum’s momentum reflects sustained ETF inflows and treasury accumulation, while exchange tokens are benefiting from rising trading volumes and on-chain fee growth.

The broader takeaway is that Bitcoin is no longer carrying the market alone. While it remains the anchor asset, leadership is shifting into areas where liquidity, utility, and adoption combine to create new momentum. If BTC can stabilize above $112K and ETH sustains $4K, this altcoin rotation is likely to deepen, with ecosystems tied to Ethereum scaling, centralized and decentralized exchanges, and core infrastructure tokens emerging as the key beneficiaries in the next phase of capital deployment.

Mark You Calendars

Token unlocks

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