Bitcoin Holds above $110K Amid CPI Jitters; Ethereum Eyes Bounce

4th September 2025 • 11mins read

This Week’s Recap

Bitcoin Market Analysis

BTC spent the week in a contained pullback inside a larger uptrend, printing a 7 day high near $112,526 on Fri, Aug 29, and a 7 day low near $108,253 on Mon, Sep 1, with spot hovering close to $111,000 today. The path was a quick early week flush into the $108,000s, a stabilisation, then a grind back toward the former $112,000 support that now caps rallies. Volatility rose off late August lows, but the move has not expanded into a trend day, which keeps the market in a mean reversion posture until a close reclaims 112,000 or loses 108,000 with momentum.

Source: https://altfins.com/technical-analysis 

Market structure remains clear. $112,000 is the first reclaim needed to argue that buyers have retaken short term control, $121,000 is the next pivot before the $124,000 all time high overhang, and $108,000 is the nearest defense that held this week. Below, the $105,000 to $102,000 area aligns with the 200 day moving average watch, with $100,000 as a psychological round number and alert. Acceptance back above $112,000 would turn the prior breakdown into a failed move, a common springboard toward $121,000, while repeated failures under $112,000 keep the tape range bound or leaning lower.

Momentum is neutral to slightly improving. RSI-14 sits mid band, neither overbought nor oversold, consistent with a basing attempt rather than a blow off or capitulation. The MACD histogram has been rising even as the MACD line lags the signal, an inflection pattern that often precedes direction being decided at levels, not by the oscillator alone. The 200 day moving average is still rising, so the long trend remains up, while the 50 day slope is softer, which explains why rallies into resistance have met supply.

Flows strengthened into the week’s back half. Spot ETF tracker shows $332M on Sep 2 and $301M on Sep 3, set against a mixed late August that included −$126M on Aug 29, for a simple 7 day sum near $686M. At a spot near 111,000, that dollar intake is roughly equivalent to about 6,180 BTC of demand, a sizing check only, not a share creation count. The timing lines up with the price stabilisation from the 108,000 low, so continued positive prints would add incremental support to any reclaim of $112,000 and $121,000, while a relapse to persistent outflows would raise the odds of a deeper test toward $105,000 to $102,000.

Source: https://sosovalue.com/

Binance liquidity appears constructive, with elevated stablecoin balances suggesting ample dry powder. A BTC to stablecoin reserve ratio drifting toward 1, alongside ERC-20 stablecoin balances reportedly near a record around $37.8B, is consistent with better dip absorption if the change reflects rising stablecoin deposits rather than growing exchange BTC inventory. Historically, when stablecoin balances trend higher while exchange BTC balances are flat or falling, spot share of turnover rises, bid depth thickens, and a 7 to 14 day average of the ratio turns up; in that state, the probability of buy the dip follow through at well watched levels is higher, while heavy ETF outflows, a jump in exchange BTC balances, or a reversal in stablecoin inflows would weaken the setup.

Source: https://cryptoquant.com/insights/

A daily close above $112,000 would likely mark a momentum shift, increasing the probability of follow through toward $121,000 and, if sustained, a retest near $124,000; repeated rejection beneath $112,000 would more likely keep price capped and raise the odds of a drift toward $108,000, with $105,000 and $102,000 as subsequent waypoints and $100,000 in play under stress; if 25 to 50 bps of Fed cuts occur this month, financial conditions typically ease, which historically favors risk assets and would raise the likelihood of bullish continuation, yet confirmation would still be expected via closes back above $112,000 and then $121,000.

Ethereum Market Analysis

ETH has been consolidating below the late-August all-time high, trading near $4,400, about 11 percent under the August 24 peak around $4,956. The week featured an early pullback followed by tight, range-bound trading, with intraday ranges contained and closes clustering near the volume-weighted mean around $4,445. The short-term change reads modestly negative on the week, while one-month and three-month windows remain strongly positive, which is consistent with a pause inside a larger uptrend.

Source: https://altfins.com/technical-analysis

Market structure is straightforward. On the topside, $4,880, then $5,000, define a decision band where reactions often determine the next leg. Below, $4,000 is the first major support, then $3,450, with an intermediate zone around $3,900 to $3,950 where dip demand has appeared. A daily close above $5,000 would be read as continuation potential toward $5,500, while repeated failures beneath $4,880 to $5,000 keep price range-bound or tilt risk toward a deeper probe of $4,000.

Momentum and trend signals support that binary. RSI reads mid-band, not stretched, and the MACD histogram has been rising even with the line still below the signal, a combination that often hands decision-making to levels rather than to oscillators. Higher-time-frame moving averages slope up, consistent with a strong underlying trend, while some shorter averages have softened during consolidation, which explains why first touches into resistance have met supply. Bollinger Bands currently bracket roughly $4,067 to $4,819, and a one-day true range near $236 implies that a clean breakout would likely need a range expansion beyond recent averages.

Flows are the immediate swing factor. From the SoSoValue screen provided, the most recent four trading prints into September 3 total about −$299,090,000, with outflows on three of four sessions, cumulative spot ETH ETF net inflow around $13,340,000,000, and total net assets near $29,210,000,000. Back-of-envelope, at a spot near $4,400, that weekly net equals roughly the dollar equivalent of 68,000 ETH, large enough to act as a headwind while price presses into $4,880 to $5,000. A flip to consecutive positive daily prints would typically improve the odds that resistance converts to support after a breakout.

Source: https://sosovalue.com/

Positioning and supply dynamics partly offset the soft flow tape. Whale cohorts were reported to have added about 260,000 ETH in 24 hours, exchange reserves sit near a three-year low, and several desks have framed an institutional accumulation theme into Q4. Ether Machine disclosed a 150,000 ETH financing and a treasury near 495,000 ETH, while the Ethereum Foundation plans to sell 10,000 ETH over the coming weeks for grants and R&D. Taken together, float appears to be tightening even with one-off sales, which is usually supportive for buy-the-dip behavior if price confirmation arrives.

strength on a decisive break and hold above $5,000 with room toward $5,500, or value on a constructive dip toward $4,000 for a swing back toward $4,900 if structure holds, with invalidation below $3,450. If a clean close above $5,000 occurs while daily ETF flows flip positive, there is a high chance of continuation toward $5,500. If repeated rejection persists beneath $4,880 to $5,000 while outflows continue, there is a high chance of a drift toward $4,000, with $3,450 as the next guardrail. Alerts can be set at $4,880, $5,000, $4,400, $4,000, and $3,450, and the daily ETF flow tape plus on exchange reserve trend can be used as confirmation filters.

Mark Your Calendars

Economic Data Releases:

  • September 10, 2025 (Wednesday): Core PPI
  • September 11, 2025 (Thursday): Core CPI

Token Unlock

  • September 5, 2025 (Friday): ENA (ENA) unlocks $121.65 M (2.69 % of market cap)
  • September 9, 2025 (Tuesday): MOVE (MOVE) unlocks $5.84 M (1.89 % of market cap)
  • September 10, 2025 (Wednesday): APT (APT) unlocks $48.63 M (2.20 % of market cap)