Executive brief
The digital asset market weathered extreme geopolitical volatility over the weekend as Bitcoin recovered to $68,000 following the confirmed death of Iran’s Supreme Leader. This followed a sharp drawdown to $63,000 triggered by US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets, which saw over $100m in crypto long positions liquidated within minutes. The price action highlights Bitcoin’s role as a 24/7 liquidity pressure valve, functioning as the only major risk asset tradable during weekend macro shocks while traditional stock and commodity markets remain closed. Traders are now closely monitoring the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy chokepoint handling 20% of global oil supply, where shipping disruptions could send crude prices above $100 per barrel and spike global inflation.
Despite the regional conflict, institutional momentum remains a key driver for long term participation. Morgan Stanley has filed for a US bank charter to provide crypto custody and staking services, signaling that the largest wealth managers are deepening their infrastructure even during market stress. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $787m in net inflows over the past week, successfully breaking a five week negative streak that had seen $3.8b in total withdrawals. This shift suggests a potential floor is forming as institutional allocators resume accumulation.
The primary directional cue for the coming days will be the response of traditional futures markets on Monday. Key drivers include the $175b tariff refund uncertainty following a US Supreme Court ruling, which has previously forced traders to use Bitcoin as a liquidity source to raise cash. A significant opportunity lies in the eventual rotation back to risk assets if Middle East tensions stabilise, though the risk of a prolonged energy crisis remains the dominant threat to near term growth.
1) Top 20 news headlines
- Bitcoin tops $68,000 after Iran confirms leader killed in U.S., Israel airstrikes; market participants are pricing in a shorter period of tension after the death of the Iranian leader opened the door to regime change;
- Morgan Stanley files for bank charter to custody digital assets and offer staking; the $2.0t asset manager filed for a national trust bank charter to expand its digital asset offerings;
- Bitcoin Spot ETFs record $787m inflows to break 5-week negative streak; BlackRock’s IBIT led the resurgence with $502.99m in net deposits as institutional demand reappeared;
- Polymarket attracts record volumes as U.S.-Iran bets top $529 million; the prediction platform saw unprecedented trading as users bet on the timing and scale of military strikes;
- SpaceX’s $780 million bitcoin stack now down to $545 million; the company holds 8,285 bitcoin in Coinbase Prime custody as it prepares for an IPO filing next month;
- XRP Ledger averts critical security flaw with AI; researchers identified a loop error in the proposed Batch amendment that could have allowed fund transfers without user signatures;
- Strategy lifts STRC dividend to 11.5% as MSTR extends losing streak; the company raised the annual dividend on its preferred series by 25 basis points despite a monthly slide in share price;
- Former Mt. Gox CEO proposes rewrite of Bitcoin code to recover $5 billion; Mark Karpelès suggested redirecting coins untouched since 2011 but was quickly rebuffed by the developer community;
- Stablecoin yield rewards likely won’t be banned under OCC proposal; regulatory experts suggest the current rulemaking plan remains ambiguous regarding specific yield procedures;
- ZKsync sets May 4 deprecation date for Lite; the project will freeze the Lite network to consolidate resources around its Era and ZK Stack infrastructure;
- US strike force freezes over $580 million in crypto; federal officials targeted digital assets linked to Chinese transnational criminal networks over a 3-month period;
- Bitcoin difficulty resets 15% higher to 144.40T; the largest upward adjustment since 2021 has compressed miner margins, dropping hashprice to $29.7 per PH/s/day;
- Trump Media plans Truth Social spin-off amid $700m loss; the company is weighing a standalone stock listing for the social platform as crypto exposure impacts its balance sheet;
- Figure posts 156% jump in Q4 profit; Bernstein analysts backed an outperform rating for the company following solid fourth quarter results;
- SBI Holdings unveils JPY stablecoin for Q2 launch; the yen denominated JPYSC will be managed by SBI Shinsei Trust Bank;
- Alchemy introduces autonomous payment rails for AI agents; the new system allows AI agents on the Base network to pay for blockchain data using USDC;
- Minnesota introduces bill to ban crypto kiosks; lawmakers are considering the ban following reports of elder fraud cases involving $80,000 transfers;
- VC Paradigm expands into AI with $1.5b fund; the firm is broadening its scope to include robotics and frontier tech with its latest massive capital raise;
- Senate Democrats urge probe into Binance; 11 lawmakers requested a review of the exchange’s AML and sanctions controls regarding potential illicit finance;
- SEC seeking to regain crypto ground says Chairman Atkins; the agency aims to move forward after what Atkins described as a missed opportunity under the previous leadership;
2) BTC and ETH ETF flows
| Metric | BTC | ETH |
|---|---|---|
| Net inflow | -$27.55m | -$43.00m |
| Value traded | $2,568.38m | $679.57m |
| Net assets | $83.40b | $10.96b |
| Cumulative net inflow | $54.80b | $11.60b |
3) X trending news
- UAE closes stock market; the Emirates announced closures for Monday and Tuesday following Iranian military strikes.
- Strait of Hormuz insurance skyrockets; war risk premiums for oil tankers have jumped 50% with costs for a $100m vessel rising to $375,000 per voyage.
- Michael Saylor hints at accumulation; the MicroStrategy chairman signaled intentions for further Bitcoin purchases in a cryptic post.
- Dubai airport explosions; reports indicate Iranian missiles hit targets in the UAE and Israel during the Saturday escalation.
- Heavy liquidations; roughly $100,000,000 in crypto long positions were wiped out in 15 minutes during the initial strike on Iran.
- Anthropic labeled supply chain risk; the US government designated the AI company a supply chain risk hours before its software was reportedly used in military operations.