Executive brief
The digital asset market is navigating a complex intersection of geopolitical instability and macroeconomic shifts as Bitcoin struggled to maintain the $70,000 level. A primary driver of recent volatility is the escalating conflict in the Middle East, where tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have sent Brent crude prices surging toward $85. Analysts warn that a prolonged disruption could act as a significant directional cue for the downside, potentially pushing oil to $150 and triggering a 45% correction in Bitcoin due to tightening liquidity expectations and delayed interest rate cuts. This risk is compounded by unexpected weakness in the US labour market, which lost 92,000 jobs in February, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.4%.
Despite the broader market pressure, institutional infrastructure continues to mature. A notable opportunity cue lies in the limited-use master account granted by the Federal Reserve to Kraken, marking a historic shift in US policy toward crypto-native firms. Further signs of institutional resilience appear in the real-world asset sector, where 1inch and Ondo Finance reported volumes exceeding $2.5 billion. However, internal market stresses remain, particularly in the private credit space, where cracks in $3.5 trillion of assets could force funds to liquidate liquid holdings like Bitcoin to meet redemption requests. As Bitcoin faces persistent resistance at $71,500, the market appears to be in an accumulation phase, waiting for macro stability before attempting to reclaim previous highs.
1) Top 20 news headlines
- Latin America’s crypto user growth outpaced U.S. by 3x in 2025; adoption in Brazil and Argentina is being driven by cross-border payments and stablecoin demand.
- Kalshi and Polymarket seeking $20 billion valuations; prediction markets are pursuing high-value fundraising despite mounting regulatory scrutiny and insider trading allegations.
- Bitcoin slips below $68,000 as dollar posts steepest weekly gain in a year; major assets fell as Glassnode data showed 43% of the supply is currently sitting at a loss.
- U.S. unexpectedly lost 92,000 jobs in February; the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% as stagflation fears began to impact risk assets.
- Kazakhstan central bank to invest $350 million in digital assets; the portfolio will target crypto infrastructure firms and tech funds starting as early as April.
- USDC beats Tether as transfer volume hits $1.8 trillion record; USDC accounted for approximately 70% of the record monthly transaction volume in February.
- Kraken secures limited-use master account from Federal Reserve; the move signals a major pro-crypto shift in US central bank policy.
- 1inch-Ondo tokenized RWA volumes top $2.5 billion; real-world asset platforms are bucking the market slump as investors seek reliable growth engines.
- Circle moves $68 million via internal USDC payments; the issuer replaced traditional bank wires with its own stablecoin to improve settlement speed.
- Crypto lender BlockFills explores restructuring; the Chicago-based firm halted withdrawals citing recent market and financial conditions.
- Florida Senate passes state-level stablecoin bill; Senate Bill 314 provides a framework for payment stablecoin issuers to operate within the state.
- SEC ends case against Tron founder Justin Sun; charges were reportedly dropped in a $10 million settlement deal.
- First spot Polkadot ETF launches in the US; the fund is issued by 21Shares under the ticker symbol TDOT.
- Strike secures New York BitLicense; the approval allows the firm to offer Bitcoin financial services to New York state residents.
- Dubai regulator orders KuCoin to halt unlicensed services; the VARA alert states the exchange lacks authorization to operate within the emirate.
- Bitcoin mining costs surge past $70,000 per BTC; miners are seeing profits drop to just $500 per coin as network hashrate and energy costs rise.
- Bank of Canada completes first tokenized bond trial; Project Samara tested the issuance and settlement of bonds using digital Canadian dollars.
- Jack Dorsey’s firm reluctantly adds stablecoin options; the shift comes as competitors like PayPal and Stripe increase market pressure.
- Binance denies sending crypto directly to Iran; the exchange responded to a Senate probe by disputing reports of $1.7 billion in linked flows.
- Bitcoin rejected at $71,500 resistance for the seventh time; the level remains a critical ceiling blocking a move toward $74,000.
2) BTC and ETH ETF flows
| Metric | BTC | ETH |
|---|---|---|
| Net inflow | -$348,828,618.3 | -$82,851,909.455 |
| Value traded | $3,075,158,053.77 | $828,791,071 |
| Net assets | $87,074,777,524.82524 | $11,282,725,543.823 |
| Cumulative net inflow | $55,368,643,104.923 | $11,628,517,089.271 |
3) X trending news
- US stock market wipeout; over $805,000,000,000 was erased from the stock market in a single day.
- Record oil price surge; US oil prices posted their largest weekly gain on record, rising 34.5% since 1982.
- Gold ETF record outflows; the $GLD ETF saw a record $3.0 billion exit on Wednesday as investors locked in gains.
- US manufacturing contraction; the ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 47.9, marking its 10th consecutive monthly contraction.
- Brent crude hits $91; the benchmark oil price has surged 25% over the past seven days amid Middle East conflict.
- Private credit under pressure; the median Business Development Company is trading at just 0.73x its net asset value, the lowest since 2020.
- LNG shipping rates explode; rates have surged from $40,000 to $300,000 per day as energy transit is disrupted.