Executive brief
The Federal Reserve’s final meeting under Jerome Powell’s chairmanship concluded with a decision to leave interest rates at 3.50% to 3.75%. The meeting was marked by four dissents, the highest number since 1992, as policymakers grapple with an environment where inflation is no longer categorised as somewhat elevated but is now officially elevated. This shift in language is largely a response to energy prices, with Jerome Powell’s final press conference occurring as Brent crude oil hits $119 per barrel. The primary driver of this volatility is the Trump administration’s naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has created a significant macro headwind for risk assets and pushed fuel costs to levels not seen since 2022.
Despite macro pressure, Senator Thom Tillis signaled that the CLARITY Act is ready for a hearing in May, suggesting a path toward federal rules for stablecoins and token classification. This provides a directional cue that regulatory progress could eventually shield the industry from broader market volatility. However, Bitcoin miners face a risk cue as their rapid pivot into high-performance computing makes them vulnerable to a potential AI sector bubble. While institutional demand via US spot Bitcoin ETFs remains resilient with recent inflows of $2.12b, a negative Coinbase premium suggests U.S. retail demand is currently wavering. Opportunity lies in tokenised stock infrastructure, as partnerships between Securitize and Computershare open the way for a $70t market to move onchain. Furthermore, Visa’s expansion of its stablecoin settlement network to networks like Polygon and Base highlights the growing role of private payments in maintaining liquidity during periods of geopolitical stress.
1) Top 20 news headlines
- Fed leaves rates unchanged at Jerome Powell’s final meeting as chairman; interest rates remain at 3.50% to 3.75% as policymakers note elevated inflation concerns.
- Robinhood and Coinbase lead crypto stock rout as Trump rejects Iran plan; crude oil prices surged 6% following the rejection of an offer to end the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
- U.S. senator says CLARITY Act is ready to get to hearing; Senator Thom Tillis indicated that stablecoin yield negotiations have progressed enough for a committee markup in May.
- Bitcoin Coinbase Premium turns negative as realised losses spike to $6 billion; onchain data reveals total realised losses of $5.97b as U.S. spot demand flips red.
- Securitize and Computershare open path for $70 trillion in U.S. stocks to move onchain; public companies can now issue blockchain-based shares without changing existing market structures.
- Visa expands stablecoin settlement network as volume hits $7 billion run rate; support has been added for Base and Polygon as stablecoins gain global payment traction.
- Litecoin MWEB bug allowed attacker to create 85,034 LTC; a critical validation flaw led to an inflated pegout in March before funds were recovered through a coordinated response.
- Judge rejects new trial for former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried; Judge Lewis Kaplan dismissed the request as a plan to rescue his reputation after a 25 year prison sentence.
- MoonPay acquires Israeli crypto security firm Sodot in $100 million deal; the acquisition forms the base of a new institutional business led by former CFTC official Caroline Pham.
- Czech Central Bank find small Bitcoin allocation improves portfolio returns; a 1% allocation in a test portfolio raised expected returns while maintaining similar risk levels.
- Monthly prediction market volume hits $25.7 billion; retail users are driving repeat activity beyond one-off events as the sector matures.
- Robinhood shares drop 10% after Q1 earnings miss; crypto revenue and volume fell nearly 50% despite growth in the firm’s prediction market products.
- Hyperliquid prepares to challenge Polymarket in $63 billion prediction sector; the platform aims to offer zero-fee entry for event betting as prediction markets explode.
- Bitcoin miners face concentration risk as AI stocks hit dot-com peaks; public miners have announced over $70b in aggregate AI and high-performance computing contracts.
- Bitcoin ETFs fuel institutional surge with $100,000 target by year-end; growing inflows are reinforcing Bitcoin’s role in portfolios despite price struggles below $80,000.
- XRP Sharpe Ratio hits highest reading of April; the risk-adjusted performance metric climbed to 0.065 as the market rebalances above the $1.40 level.
- DeFi shaken by $292 million hack but showing resilience; Standard Chartered maintains its $2 trillion real-world asset outlook despite recent protocol exploits.
- Celsius founder Alex Mashinsky settles FTC case with $10 million payment; the settlement is tied to a suspended $4.72b judgment that remains contingent on asset disclosures.
- US Admiral calls Bitcoin a tool for national security; Admiral Samuel Paparo described Bitcoin’s proof-of-work mechanism as a strategic asset for boosting cybersecurity.
- Bullish brings Bitcoin options to Ripple Prime institutional clients; the integration allows institutions to trade options via a prime brokerage layer using existing accounts.
2) BTC and ETH ETF flows
| Metric | BTC | ETH |
|---|---|---|
| Net inflow | -$89.7m | -$21.8m |
| Value traded | $1.35b | $428.6m |
| Net assets | $100.4b | $13.6b |
| Cumulative net inflow | $58.2b | $12.0b |
3) X trending news
- Fed leaves rates unchanged; the central bank has maintained the interest rate at 3.50% to 3.75% in Jerome Powell’s final policy decision.
- Powell to stay as Governor; Jerome Powell will remain on the Federal Reserve Board as a Governor after his term as chair ends on May 15.
- Brent crude surges to $119; oil prices have hit their highest level since 2022 as the IEA warns of significant energy security threats.
- Rate cut expectations hit 44%; odds for a 2026 interest rate cut fell to a new low after four Fed members dissented against today’s pause.
- Trump rejects Iran proposal; the U.S. has prepared a plan for strikes on infrastructure as the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues.
- SpaceX approves Musk pay package; the board approved 200 million shares contingent on a $7.5 trillion valuation and a permanent Mars colony.
- Meta launches creator stablecoin payouts; the social media giant has introduced support for stablecoin payouts to platform creators.
- Kevin Warsh approved by committee; Trump’s Fed Chair nomination has been approved by the Senate Banking Committee and advances to a full vote.