Executive brief

The crypto market is currently navigating a period of significant technical and geopolitical volatility, headlined by an escalating security crisis and shifting macro policy. A major software error in Coldcard hardware wallets has resulted in the theft of approximately 1,367.05 BTC, worth roughly $89 million. This event has caused the largest movement of sub-1 BTC balances since the FTX collapse, as users migrate funds to exchanges for safety, potentially distorting typical on-chain market signals. This migration highlights a persistent risk in self-custody models, which may drive further institutional flows toward regulated products in the coming months.

Simultaneously, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are providing a volatile backdrop for global liquidity. While Iranian maritime insurance schemes have been blacklisted by the US for accepting Bitcoin to bypass sanctions, conflicting reports regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are impacting market sentiment. US President Donald Trump claimed a framework deal was reached, though Iranian officials have since denied these reports. These developments coincide with the launch of the Truth API, a $1.2m per year data feed designed to provide high-frequency traders with faster access to market-moving social media posts.

Investor appetite remains split between majors, with Ethereum outpacing Bitcoin in monthly ETF demand for July, despite overall choppy price action. While Tether reported a $1.5b operating profit in the second quarter, the broader regulatory landscape faces a five-day countdown for the US Senate to pass the Crypto Clarity Act before summer recess. This legislative hurdle, combined with the SEC’s review of Bitcoin options, serves as a primary driver for near-term volatility. Investors should weigh the opportunity of emerging yield models like Sui’s stablecoin buyback mechanism against the immediate risk of further deleveraging if the Federal Reserve leans toward a surprise rate hike in September.

1) Top 20 news headlines

2) BTC and ETH ETF flows

Metric BTC ETH
Net inflow -$265,372,778.16 $9,029,537.84
Value traded $2,670,568,746.29 $630,395,820.20
Net assets $76,293,563,503.30 $10,229,437,203.12
Cumulative net inflow $51,324,507,916.31 $11,210,228,362.06

3) X trending news

  • Strait of Hormuz reopening denied; Iranian state media rejected claims that a deal has been reached with the US to open the shipping lane.
  • Trump Media launches Truth API; the new paid data service provides institutional firms with faster access to presidential posts for up to $100,000 per month.
  • US and Japan Yen intervention; joint currency market intervention to support the Japanese yen remains ongoing according to Treasury sources.
  • US savings rate falls to 2.7%; the personal savings rate reached its lowest level since June 2022 following five months of declines.
  • Global household net worth record; global wealth surged 7.3% to a record $570 trillion in 2025, primarily driven by equity gains.
  • AI value chain earnings beat; the Bloomberg AI index is exceeding expectations by 71% in the current earnings quarter.