Executive brief

The cryptocurrency market is currently navigating a significant security crisis as the Coldcard wallet exploit enters its fifth day, with total estimated losses climbing toward $114m. This incident has triggered a notable shift in holder behaviour, as small investors move bitcoin back to exchanges for safety, a trend that reverses the self-custody surge seen after the FTX collapse. Market sentiment is further strained by macroeconomic uncertainty, as coordinated US and Japan intervention to support the yen has reignited fears regarding the unwinding of the yen carry trade, which could increase pressure on liquid risk assets.

In Washington, the regulatory landscape remains fraught with tension as the Clarity Act faces a final five-day window for Senate floor action before the August recess. Prediction markets currently place the odds of the bill passing this year at just 30 per cent, hampered by disputes over stablecoin rewards and ethics provisions related to existing crypto ventures. Corporate treasury activity has also introduced volatility, with Strategy reporting the sale of 1,638 bitcoin to fund dividends and stock repurchases, while trackers identified a $165m bitcoin move from wallets linked to Trump Media. Despite these headwinds, institutional maturation continues as BlackRock expands its tokenised money market offerings to support stablecoin reserves.

Key drivers for the coming sessions include the potential for a peace deal in the Middle East, which has already seen oil prices fall sharply. While the Solana capacity boost of 66 per cent offers a technical opportunity for parallel transaction growth, the ongoing hardware wallet vulnerability remains a critical risk cue that could undermine investor confidence in long term cold storage.

1) Top 20 news headlines

2) BTC and ETH ETF flows

Metric BTC ETH
Net inflow -$265.4m $9.0m
Value traded $2.67b $630.4m
Net assets $76.3b $10.2b
Cumulative net inflow $51.3b $11.2b

3) X trending news

  • S&P 500 surges above 7,600; the index reached a new milestone and is currently just 20 points from a record high.
  • Record tech fund inflows; global technology equity funds saw $15.7b in weekly inflows, the third-largest on record.
  • Saylor never sold personal bitcoin; Michael Saylor clarified that while his company sold coins, his personal wallet remains untouched.
  • Jim Cramer sells all bitcoin; the CNBC host has reportedly exited his entire bitcoin position.
  • Iran peace deal rumors; US futures rose as President Trump claimed the perimeters of a deal were reached, sending oil prices down 10 per cent.
  • Central banks buy 345 tonnes of gold; year to date gold acquisitions have surged, led by Poland with 82 tonnes.
  • Strategy stock down 41 per cent; MicroStrategy stock has declined significantly this year despite its bitcoin treasury strategy.
  • OpenAI Astra solves 10 math problems; the next major model reportedly solved open problems in quantum complexity and theoretical computer science.