Executive brief

The digital asset market faced a volatile weekend as Bitcoin pulled back from a peak near $81,000 to hover around $78,400. This retreat followed a hawkish address by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium, where he warned that work remains regarding inflation. Consequently, market odds for a September rate hike surged to 49%, tempering recent bullish sentiment. Despite this macro pressure, Michael Saylor signalled that MicroStrategy may resume its Bitcoin acquisition strategy after a two-month hiatus, providing a potential floor for prices near $79,000.

Institutional integration continues to accelerate, with BitGo completing its $42.5m acquisition of NYDIG’s trading arm to bolster its capital markets offering. Simultaneously, Japanese giant SBI Holdings invested $270m in Indonesia’s Ajaib, and Visa expanded its Asian footprint through a stablecoin partnership with Upbit operator Dunamu. In the ETF sector, US spot Bitcoin funds snapped a nine-day inflow streak with net outflows of $201.8m on Friday, while Ethereum ETFs bucked the trend with $102.2m in net inflows. This divergence suggests a shifting preference toward altcoin majors as Bitcoin consolidates.

Risks remain concentrated in the DeFi sector, highlighted by a $75m exploit on the Cronos-linked Tectonic protocol and supply-related halts on the TAC and Fogo blockchains. Opportunities may arise from a reported historic energy deal between the US and Venezuela, which President Trump claims could double US strategic reserves. However, the immediate risk cue remains the widening US goods trade deficit of $118.8b, which could further strain global liquidity and exacerbate volatility in risk assets heading into the September Fed decision. Investors should watch the $77,000 level for support if selling pressure from the hawkish Fed outlook persists.

1) Top 20 news headlines

2) BTC and ETH ETF flows

Metric BTC ETH
Net inflow -$201,806,559.49 $102,178,311.40
Value traded $4,385,894,474 $1,368,062,491
Net assets $97,593,047,466.94 $15,233,215,163.77
Cumulative net inflow $54,630,599,546.89 $12,974,509,175.60

3) X trending news

  • Trump Venezuela oil deal; President Trump claims to have secured majority control of 65 billion barrels of reserves.
  • Russia Sberbank collateral; The bank will accept Bitcoin and Ethereum for loans following new regulated trading laws.
  • OpenAI terminates Cursor partnership; Access to the AI coding tool will end by 12 November following the SpaceX acquisition.
  • M2 money supply record; US M2 surged $102.8b in July to a record $23.22t, marking the 27th consecutive monthly increase.
  • Charles Schwab adds crypto; The $13 trillion firm is adding Solana, Avalanche, and Chainlink trading to its platforms.
  • Wheat price surge; Futures jumped to $7.58 per bushel, rising 19% so far this month amid Black Sea export concerns.
  • Labor market revisions; Nonfarm payrolls were revised down by 79,000 jobs, marking a fourth consecutive annual downward adjustment.
  • S&P 500 resilience; The index has traded for 22 consecutive sessions without a decline of at least 1.0%.