Executive brief
The digital asset market is grappling with a significant shift in macroeconomic expectations following hotter than forecast inflation data in the US. A 0.3% monthly rise in core CPI has forced markets to pivot from anticipating rate cuts to pricing in an 80% probability of a rate hike at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. This hawkish turn coincides with oil prices surging back above $100 per barrel following attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, heightening fears that inflation may remain sticky. While Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong suggests Bitcoin has bottomed for the current cycle, the asset remains vulnerable to rising bond yields and a liquidity squeeze as US debt mandatory spending consumes 98.4% of total federal receipts.
In the technology sector, a complex narrative is emerging around artificial intelligence. While Nvidia considers a $10b investment in a potential Anthropic IPO, tech leaders including Elon Musk and Sam Altman have backed calls to slow development as systems become capable of building their own successors. The sector faces further scrutiny following reports that militants used AI models to assist in weapons design. This volatility has not deterred institutional infrastructure growth, with India launching a $620b tokenized bond pilot and Solana capturing $348m in monthly real-world asset inflows. However, retail security remains a primary risk cue, highlighted by Revolut exposing customer Bitcoin histories to hackers through a fraudulent government request, and Blockstream’s ongoing refusal to pay a $50m ransom following the Liquid Network exploit.
1) Top 20 news headlines
- Rate hike odds hit 85%; hot core CPI data showing a 0.3% monthly increase has shifted market expectations toward a September hike.
- Reform UK lands $97m crypto donation; two billionaires provided the largest individual political donations in UK history within 24 hours.
- AI leaders call for development slowdown; CEOs of Anthropic and OpenAI alongside Elon Musk agree that frontier AI development must decelerate.
- Nvidia weighs $10b Anthropic stake; the investment could value the AI firm at $2 trillion ahead of a record-breaking IPO.
- India launches $620b tokenized bond pilot; the SEBI initiative settles corporate bond trades using the RBI wholesale digital rupee.
- Revolut data breach exposes Bitcoin data; customer KYC and transaction histories were leaked after the bank fell for a fraudulent government domain request.
- Blockstream rejects $50m ransom; developers are refusing to pay a bounty for the remaining 600 BTC stolen in the Liquid Network exploit.
- Solana pulls $348m in RWA inflows; tokenized real-world asset value on the network has reached $720m in total assets.
- Bitwise shuts Dogecoin ETF; the BWOW fund will liquidate in October after failing to attract more than $700,000 in net assets.
- SBF appeals to Supreme Court; lawyers for the FTX founder are challenging his conviction and $11b forfeiture order.
- Ripple targets $13t treasury market; the firm is positioning its RLUSD stablecoin to capture global corporate payments under MiCA rules.
- TON reaches 100m monthly users; Telegram-based mini-apps have surpassed the 100 million user milestone for Web3 onboarding.
- NEAR hits 50m operations; the network’s chain abstraction infrastructure reached a fresh milestone in cross-chain usability.
- Standard Chartered forecasts SKY fivefold rise; the bank expects the SKY token to reach $0.325 by 2028 as USDS adoption expands.
- Nasdaq invests $100m in Kraken parent; the exchange operator is expanding its partnership with Payward via a fresh capital injection.
- UniCredit seeks crypto partners; Italy’s second-largest bank is exploring a launch into crypto trading and custody services.
- Coinbase brings stablecoins to 1,000 banks; a new partnership with Moov provides settlement infrastructure for US community credit unions.
- Router Protocol to burn 303m tokens; the cross-chain network is shutting down operations and permanently removing tokens from circulation.
- Aave weighs emergency freeze powers; a new proposal would allow guardians to pause vulnerable lending pools during active security threats.
- Metaplanet cuts reward pool 41%; the Bitcoin treasury firm reduced its potential share pool to 188.2 million following shareholder backlash.
2) BTC and ETH ETF flows
| Metric | BTC | ETH |
|---|---|---|
| Net inflow | -$13.3m | $216.4m |
| Value traded | $2.6b | $2.56b |
| Net assets | $97.6b | $16.3b |
| Cumulative net inflow | $55.2b | $13.4b |
3) X trending news
- AI used for ballistic missiles; reports indicate Yemeni militants used Anthropic’s Claude AI to assist in weapons development.
- US debt consumes 98.4% of receipts; mandatory spending and interest now account for nearly every dollar the federal government collects.
- Trump confirms $5,000 dividend; Donald Trump stated that a promised $5,000 payout to all US adults will happen.
- US faces $7.5t refinancing wave; roughly $7.5 trillion in marketable Treasury debt is set to mature in 2026.
- California diesel hits $8 per gallon; average prices reached an all-time record as energy costs continue to climb.
- Equities hit 48.2% of household assets; stock holdings now represent a record proportion of total US financial wealth.
- Goldman expects Fed hike; the $3.7 trillion asset manager now forecasts an interest rate increase at the next meeting.
- Ellison to sell $7.5b in Oracle; Larry Ellison has announced plans to offload a massive stake in the technology giant.
