Bitcoin Steadies at $112K as Ethereum Nears $5K

Bitcoin Holds $112K Pivot as Ethereum Presses $5K Ceiling

28th August 2025 • 10mins read

This Week’s Recap

$14.6B in Bitcoin and Ether Options Expire Friday; Dealers Eye Key Pin Levels: A large monthly expiry on Deribit is set to roll off, with positioning showing a bias for BTC downside protection and max-pain near key strikes. Such setups can pin spot into expiry as dealers hedge, then unlock volatility as positions are closed or rolled. Watch skew, basis, and post-expiry flows for confirmation of direction into month-end.
Bitcoin Chalks Out Lower High After Powell’s Jackson Hole Comments: BTC failed to extend the Powell bounce and printed a lower high on the daily chart. The structure keeps near-term risk skewed to the downside unless bulls reclaim the recent swing top. Monitor the $117k area as validation and the 200-day SMA as a downside line in the sand.
Bitcoin Miners Face a Difficult Market as Margins Tighten: Executives flagged squeezed profitability as power costs rise and post-halving rewards shrink. Operators are diversifying into data centers and AI to stabilize revenues while prioritizing ultra-low-cost energy. Track treasury sales, capex pacing, and consolidation as stress indicators.
Ledn CEO: “Bitcoin Treasuries’ Chances of Big Returns Likely Fading”: Ledn’s Adam Reeds argued that corporate BTC treasury strategies are unlikely to repeat early outsized gains as markets mature. With better access and tighter spreads, balance-sheet BTC increasingly behaves like beta rather than alpha. Evaluate treasury plays on capital allocation, financing mix, and disclosure quality.
Standard Chartered: Ether and ETH Treasury Stocks Look Undervalued After Pullback: Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick argues ETH and ETH treasury companies look cheap after the sell-off, noting combined ETF and treasury purchases equal roughly 4.9% of supply since June. The bank reiterates a $7,500 year-end ETH target and points to lagging valuation multiples versus BTC treasury peers. Watch ETF net flows and corporate treasury disclosures for confirmation that accumulation is continuing.
Getting ETH Exposure in 2025: Ether Near Record Highs, Tom Lee Can See $15K by Year End: CoinDesk outlines exposure routes to ETH while Fundstrat’s Tom Lee projects a potential move to $15,000. Direct ownership, spot ETFs, and treasury equities each carry distinct liquidity, custody, and equity-beta trade-offs for allocators. Monitor the SEC’s stance on staking in ETFs and week-to-week ETF flow momentum for validation.
Ethereum Protocol Update Details Plan to Boost Transaction Capacity With Blobs: Core researchers detailed a PeerDAS design and incremental “Blob Parameter Only” forks to raise L2 throughput ahead of the Fusaka upgrade. The approach aims to scale blob capacity without heavy hardware requirements, supporting continued growth in rollup activity. Expect additional devnet and testnet milestones before mainnet activation.
U.S. CFTC, a Top Crypto Watchdog, Is About to Shrink Commission to Only One Member: Commissioner Kristin Johnson’s exit will leave the CFTC with a single sitting member. A one-commissioner lineup can slow rulemaking and enforcement, introducing uncertainty for derivatives and crypto oversight. Track White House nominations and Senate confirmations to gauge timeline for restoring quorum.
Crypto industry coalition presses Senate for developer protections: More than 100 firms and advocates urged Congress to include explicit safe-harbor protections for open-source developers and non-custodial providers in market-structure legislation. Without clear protections, the group argues innovation will migrate and builders could face misclassification risk. Watch whether Senate drafts keep or strengthen developer-protection language through markup.
CFTC to adopt Nasdaq surveillance to monitor crypto markets: The CFTC will use Nasdaq’s SMARTS system to detect manipulation across digital-asset derivatives and prediction markets. This brings TradFi-grade market-surveillance tooling to crypto venues and could raise compliance expectations. Implementation scope and timing, including any reach into DeFi interfaces, will be key follow-ups.
Commerce Secretary Lutnick says US will publish GDP data on blockchain: The Commerce Department plans to distribute official statistics like GDP on blockchain rails for transparency and immutability. On-chain publication could reduce disputes over revisions and cut dissemination latency. Agencies are ironing out technical standards and rollout sequencing.
Metaplanet shares jump 6% on international stock sale, financing moves: Metaplanet outlined an overseas equity raise of about ¥130.3 billion, with most proceeds earmarked for additional bitcoin purchases. The plan accelerates its treasury strategy while balancing dilution with potential NAV expansion. Pricing, allocation, and the cadence of BTC deployment are the next milestones.
Metaplanet Plans $880M Share Sale to Fund Fresh Bitcoin Purchases: Tokyo-listed Metaplanet approved an international share sale of roughly ¥130B, allocating most proceeds to additional BTC buys. The plan accelerates its treasury strategy and could expand BTC holdings materially if fully executed. Key follow-ups are pricing, allocation, and the deployment cadence into spot markets.
Donald Trump Jr.’s 1789 Capital Invests in Polymarket: 1789 Capital invested “tens of millions” in the on-chain prediction platform Polymarket. The move signals growing institutional interest in event markets as regulatory clarity and surveillance tooling improve. Watch for new markets, liquidity programs, and additional strategic investors.
Bitwise Files for First Chainlink ETF With the SEC: Bitwise submitted an S-1 for a U.S. spot LINK ETF with Coinbase Custody named in filings. If approved, it would extend regulated crypto ETPs beyond BTC and ETH, potentially broadening allocator toolkits. Next steps include the SEC comment process and any paired 19b-4 filing by an exchange.
Powell Puts September Rate Cut in Play; Bitcoin Pushes Higher: Fed Chair Jerome Powell opened the door to a September cut, citing rising downside risks to employment. A more accommodative path supports liquidity-sensitive assets like BTC and ETH. Markets will key on upcoming labor and inflation prints to validate the shift.
ETH Liquidity Check: Is it Catching Up with Bitcoin?: CoinDesk Indices reports ETH market liquidity has improved relative to BTC. The piece notes ETF flow composition and trading depth are trending in ETH’s favor, though an institutional gap remains. Watch whether sustained ETF inflows and tighter spreads continue to close the gap.
MetaMask adds Google and Apple logins to streamline wallet setup: MetaMask introduced optional social sign-ins to create, back up, and restore wallets. The change aims to reduce onboarding friction by syncing networks, tokens, and accounts across devices. Security trade-offs and mobile rollout timing are the key follow-ups.
Polymarket bettors lean towards Bitcoin below $100,000 by 2026, analysts weigh chances: The Block highlights market odds that skew toward BTC finishing below $100,000 into 2026. Such pricing can influence hedging behavior and sentiment across derivatives and spot positioning. Track changes in probabilities as macro data and ETF flows evolve.
Google Advances Its Layer-1 Blockchain; Here’s What We Know So Far: Google outlined progress on its Universal Ledger L1 aimed at institutional payments and settlement. The design emphasizes neutrality and Python-based smart contracts, positioning it against efforts from Stripe and Circle. More technical details and pilot partner updates are expected ahead of a 2026 launch window.
Google Cloud Is Building a ‘Universal Ledger’ Blockchain for Payments: Google Cloud is developing an institutional Layer-1 called the Google Cloud Universal Ledger (GCUL) aimed at payments, tokenized assets, and 24/7 settlement. The hyperscaler’s push could accelerate enterprise adoption and compete with other finance-focused chains from Big Tech and fintechs. Watch for pilot updates, technical specs, and interoperability details as the private testnet expands. (The Block)
Aave Labs Launches ‘Horizon’ for Institutional Stablecoin Borrowing Against Tokenized RWAs: Aave’s new Horizon platform lets qualified institutions borrow stablecoins using tokenized Treasurys and other RWAs as collateral. The design targets compliant access to on-chain liquidity while bridging traditional collateral to DeFi rails. Key follow-ups include onboarding timelines, partner disclosures, and risk-management parameters. (The Block)

Bitcoin Market Analysis

Bitcoin ended the week lower, sitting just under the pivot at $112,000 after a failed series of bounce attempts. The short term trend is down, the medium term is neutral, the long term remains up. Momentum is soft but stabilizing, with RSI 14 near 41, MACD negative and below signal, and ADX about 19 which signals weak trend strength. ATR sits near 3,162, so a few thousand dollars of swing risk is typical. Price is trading between the Bollinger rails near $109,142 and $122,387, which favors mean reversion attempts first and directional follow through second. The setup is a pullback inside a broader uptrend, and below $112,000 the burden of proof stays with buyers, while a daily reclaim opens $117,000 then $121,000, and failure keeps $102,000 to $100,000 near the rising 200 day as the next magnet.

Source: @RektCapital

ETF flows shifted meaningfully over the week. After heavy outflows mid month that added pressure to the post-ATH pullback, the latest prints show three consecutive inflow days, bringing a net gain of about $133 million. This shift suggests that dip buying interest has returned, but the size of the inflows remains modest compared to the prior outflows. The improvement aligns with price holding near the lower Bollinger rail, although the failure to close above $112,000 means flows are providing support rather than driving a new trend. In this type of weak-trend environment, the higher quality signal comes when positive flows coincide with a decisive reclaim of $112,000, while a renewed large outflow combined with a break under support would point the market back toward the $102,000 to $100,000 area.

Source: https://sosovalue.com/assets/etf/us-btc-spot

Derivatives positioning adds a timing layer. About $14.6 billion of BTC and ETH options are set to expire, and a noticeable demand for downside protection can pin spot around nearby strikes into settlement as dealers hedge, then free up volatility once positions are closed or rolled. Into expiry, the first decision is whether the market defends or rejects $112,000 on a daily close. After settlement, basis, skew, and the next few sessions of flows should confirm whether a path opens toward $117,000 to $121,000 or whether a probe into $102,000 to $100,000 develops.

The macro backdrop looks supportive, but it is not driving the tape on its own. Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole have tilted expectations toward a September cut, with prediction markets showing a strong lean for a 25 bps reduction and smaller odds for other outcomes. That consensus points to easier policy ahead, which is constructive over the medium term, but the near-term signal still comes from price. The trade is defined by the same checkpoints: a reclaim of $112,000 to reestablish upside momentum, or a slip back under support that shifts focus toward the $102,000 to $100,000 zone.

Source: https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september

Corporate and mining dynamics round out the micro picture. Metaplanet approved an overseas share sale of roughly ¥130.3 billion, about $880 million, with most proceeds destined for additional bitcoin, and its shares reportedly rose about six percent on the announcement. If executed and deployed, that program adds real spot demand, although pricing and cadence will drive impact. Ledn’s chief executive argued that the window for outsized alpha from corporate bitcoin treasury equities is fading, which nudges allocators toward spot or ETFs for cleaner beta. Miners continue to face margin pressure from higher energy costs and post halving rewards, so any uptick in treasury sales during stress would add to overhead on rallies.

Market structure and sentiment remain mixed, shaping how short-term rotations play out. ETH liquidity has been improving, which can redirect incremental flows during relief phases and soften BTC dominance. Alongside this, ETF inflows have improved but are not yet dominant, and technical momentum remains weak into a large options expiry. Together, these conditions suggest a wait-and-see stance: reclaiming and holding $112,000 would give the market room to test $117,000 to $121,000, while a loss of $110,000 carries the possibility of a move into the $102,000 to $100,000 zone around the 200-day average.

Ethereum Market Analysis

ETH finished the week higher by about 4.90 percent, printed a fresh all time high at $4,956.63 on Aug 24, then spent the back half of the period consolidating just under the $4,880 to $5,000 ceiling. Intraweek ranges tightened into the weekend, which often precedes a directional push when price is pressing a round number. Technical conditions remain broadly bullish. Price sits well above the 50, 100, and 200 day moving averages, with the 200 day level on the chart near $2,644.66, which confirms a primary uptrend even if some longer lookbacks still report a flat to down slope. Momentum is mixed but constructive; RSI-14 near 58 is neutral positive, the Ultimate Oscillator reads bullish, and MOM is positive, while daily MACD has rolled over and argues for patience at resistance. ATR is near $262, with a current range to ATR of about 0.69, which signals compression and supports the idea that the next impulse could be sharp once a trigger arrives.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/

The setup is clean and binary at the current location. Resistance sits at $4,880 and then $5,000; supports cluster at $4,200, $4,000, and deeper at $3,450, with a rising channel providing structure. A daily close and acceptance above $5,000 would confirm continuation, with a reasonable first objective around $5,500 given the level mapping and the round number magnet. A controlled pullback into $4,200 to $4,000 would likely attract dip buyers if trend integrity holds; a decisive daily close below $4,000 would invalidate the near-term bull setup and open risk toward $3,450.

Flows added confidence as price based under the ceiling. The visible sequence shows three outflow days followed by four strong inflow days into Aug 26, roughly plus $1.288B in net creations over that span, with value traded rising toward $2.72B on the final day in view. The macro shift after Powell put a September cut in play aligns with the two largest inflow days on Aug 25 and Aug 26; that is consistent with renewed risk appetite, while options expiry dynamics can still influence near-term tape behavior as hedges reset.

Source: https://sosovalue.com/

Fundamentals and adoption leaned supportive. Core researchers outlined a plan to raise blob throughput using PeerDAS and staged blob parameter forks ahead of the Fusaka upgrade, which targets more L2 capacity without heavy hardware strain; that speaks to continued scaling headroom. MetaMask introduced optional Google and Apple sign-ins to reduce onboarding friction for non custodial wallets, and Aave Labs launched Horizon for qualified institutions to borrow stablecoins against tokenized Treasurys and other RWAs, which improves on chain credit plumbing. On the street view side, Standard Chartered framed ETH and ETH treasury stocks as undervalued after the pullback with a $7,500 year end objective, while Tom Lee highlighted a higher $15,000 scenario; treat these as sentiment markers rather than trading signals.

The base case points to consolidation just below $5,000, with a potential attempt to clear that level if ETF creations stay positive and funding remains orderly. A higher conviction signal would be a daily close above $5,000 with supportive volume and firm basis; a quick slip back below $4,880 would weaken that signal. A pullback into $4,200 to $4,000 would fit a constructive retest within the prevailing trend, while a daily close below $4,000 would suggest a shift in near term posture. Key items to monitor over the next week include daily ETF flow direction, options expiry adjustments, whether MACD stabilizes while RSI holds above 50, and any devnet or testnet milestones on the scaling roadmap.