Fed Cuts, Powell Sounds Hawkish, BTC Ranges

30th October 2025 • 8mins read

This Week’s Recap

Bitcoin Market Analysis

Bitcoin traded this week between roughly 107,600 and 114,500, with spot hovering near 110,000 into the close; seven day change stayed modestly positive after an early dip was retraced. Price action remained choppy, with intraday rallies failing near prior supply and pullbacks finding bids above the 200 day average. The sequence suggested fragile trend continuity rather than fresh impulse, since range expansion attempts were faded quickly. It can be concluded that conditions improved versus mid October, yet conviction remained restrained.

Source: https://altfins.com/technical-analysis 

Daily technicals showed RSI near mid band, not overbought and not oversold, MACD remained crossed up while the histogram eased, ATR held near 3,700 to 3,800, and Bollinger bands sat near 105,494 and 116,088; the 200 day SMA tracked close to 109,226. The mix implied bullish but inflecting momentum and volatility consistent with range trading. Taken together, trend repair continued above the 200 day average, while a clean thrust failed to develop. It follows that patience around confirmation signals remained warranted.

Key levels centered on support at 107,000 and 100,000, resistance at 112,000 and 120,000, with an extension level near 125,000, while the short term holder cost basis around 113,000 acted as a pivotal battleground. Acceptance above 113,000 would favor a run toward 120,000, rejection there would keep price pinned in the lower half of the band. The structure therefore argued for trading the range until a daily close breaks a boundary with volume. A practical stance would keep risk tight near edges and let confirmation decide direction.

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows improved, with a seven day net of about plus 798.14 million, a largest daily inflow of about 477.19 million on Oct 21, and a three day positive momentum of about 442.38 million into Oct 28. The profile shifted from mid month outflow stress toward steady creations, which typically supports dips when derivatives do not overheat. As a synthesis, flows argued for a bullish tilt within the range while acknowledging that the ten day net remained close to flat after earlier red prints. It is prudent to reassess if two consecutive negative days appear.

Source: https://sosovalue.com/assets/etf/us-eth-spot 

On chain signals pointed to difficulty holding above the short term holder cost basis near 113,000, persistent long term holder distribution near six figure monthly pace, and elevated transfers from older coins to exchanges around a few hundred million dollars per day; realized and implied volatilities eased toward the low to mid 40s, and option skew normalized toward neutral. The mixture indicated demand rebuilding slowly while supply from experienced cohorts continued to cap follow through. When combined with price stalling near the battleground, the message remained one of consolidation rather than capitulation. Uncertainty around exact magnitudes was acknowledged, yet the directional read stayed consistent.

Source: https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-43-2025/ 

Macro and news flow featured a 25 basis point Federal Reserve cut, followed by guidance that another cut was not assured, a firmer dollar at times, and attention shifting to labor data, real yields, and liquidity breadth across venues; initial post decision strength in Bitcoin and Ethereum was faded as guidance dominated. Market tone therefore rotated from relief to data dependence, with volatility controlled but sensitive to surprises. When aligned with ETF creations turning positive and options markets normalizing, the result favored range stability unless tighter financial conditions reassert. A concise takeaway would note that confirmation above 113,000 with supportive flows unlocks 120,000, while failure keeps 107,000 at risk.

Ethereum Market Analysis

Price traded back above 4,000 and ended the week near 4,123.81, with action contained by the lower and upper bands around 3,705.15 and 4,228.35, respectively. The recovery was achieved after an early fade, then a steady bid returned into the last prints. Taken together, the pattern suggested demand absorption at the round number and a controlled advance toward the upper band. A measured tone was warranted given intraday swings near the 218.59 average true range.

Source: https://altfins.com/technical-analysis

Momentum was indicated as constructive, with RSI at 51.68 in neutral territory and a bullish MACD crossover in place, while the histogram eased sequentially. The 200 day simple moving average sat near 3,295.74, keeping the longer trend pointed higher even as shorter windows stayed mixed. This configuration implied positive bias with risk of chop as momentum inflected. A close north of the upper band would validate follow through, while a slip back inside the mid band would argue for consolidation.

Key levels were defined as support at 4,000 and 3,450, with secondary support near 3,000, and resistance at 4,700 to 5,000, then 5,500, with the prior all time high at 4,956.67. The 4,700 to 5,000 zone was identified as a major supply shelf, where failed attempts have occurred. A break and close above 4,700 would open 4,950 to 5,000 as a primary target, while a daily close below 3,950 would risk a drive toward 3,450. A neutral to mildly bullish stance was appropriate while 4,000 held on daily closes.

Spot ETF flows registered a seven day net of approximately +109.12 million, with four positive sessions and three negative sessions, the largest single day inflow at +246.02 million on October 28, and the largest outflow at −232.88 million on October 20. Three day momentum into the week’s end totaled about +473.53 million, reflecting a decisive flip from early week outflows. This cadence favored dips being supported into resistance retests, conditional on the positive streak persisting. A deterioration to materially negative three day totals would weaken that read and would warrant faster de risking near resistance.

Source: https://sosovalue.com/assets/etf/us-eth-spot 

News flow was led by reports that Consensys lined up JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs to lead a planned initial public offering, and by MegaETH raising about 450,000,000 to pursue sub second user experience and high throughput execution on Ethereum. These items added public market visibility and performance focused investment to the Ethereum stack during the week. The combination pointed to ongoing institutionalization and continued emphasis on L2 scale, with timelines and filings still to be confirmed. Caution remained appropriate until formal documents and development milestones were posted.

Overall conditions were characterized by price holding above 4,000, momentum that stayed positive but inflected, supportive ETF flow momentum, and constructive news on infrastructure and listings. These elements together framed a market that could press the 4,700 to 5,000 zone if flows remained positive and daily closes stayed above 4,000. Failure to sustain those conditions would shift expectations toward range trading inside 4,000 to 4,700 with downside risk to 3,450. Positioning was best expressed with clear invalidation at 3,950 on a daily close and a target ladder at 4,700, 4,950, and 5,000.

Mark Your Calendars

Economic Data Releases:

  • October 31, 2025 (Friday): PCE index
  • October 31, 2025 (Friday): Core PCE
  • November 7, 2025 (Friday): U.S. Unemployment Rate

Token Unlock

  • October 30, 2025 (Thursday): KMNO (KMNO) unlocks $15.09 M (5.99 % of market cap)
  • October 30, 2025 (Thursday): IMX (IMX) unlocks $12.88 M (1.24 % of market cap)
  • October 30, 2025 (Thursday): OP (OP) unlocks $13.79 M (1.71 % of market cap)
  • October 31, 2025 (Friday): SUI (SUI) unlocks $110.34 M (1.21 % of market cap)
  • November 1, 2025 (Saturday): EIGEN (EIGEN) unlocks $40.13 M (12.10 % of market cap)
  • November 2, 2025 (Sunday): ENA (ENA) unlocks $17.96 M (0.60 % of market cap)
  • November 2, 2025 (Sunday): OMNI (OMNI) unlocks $17.58 M (30.30 % of market cap)