Bitcoin Holds Steady Ahead of CPI as Markets Brace for Fed Rate Cut Call

11th September 2025 • 10mins read

This Week’s Recap

  • Bitcoin stays rangebound with bulls looking to rate cuts and Q4 seasonality: analyst: Bitcoin held within a narrow trading band as traders positioned around upcoming U.S. inflation data. Analysts pointed to potential support from Fed rate cut expectations and typical Q4 seasonality. A macro-driven breakout is seen as the likely catalyst for the next price move.
  • Bitcoin ETFs Draw In $368M, Showing Strongest Demand Since August: U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs logged $368 million in inflows, marking the strongest daily demand since last month. The flows reflected investor rotation away from Ether ETFs and into BTC funds. Market focus now shifts to whether these inflows hold as U.S. economic data is released.
  • Echoes of Summer 2023: Bitcoin’s Volatility Set to Surge: CoinDesk reported that Bitcoin market conditions resemble summer 2023, when volatility spiked. Positioning in options and cross-asset moves suggest an uptick in realized and implied volatility. Traders are watching skew and key spot levels for signs of larger price swings.
  • SEC delays decisions on staking for Ethereum ETFs, along with XRP and SOL funds: The SEC postponed rulings on whether to allow staking for spot Ether ETFs and also pushed back decisions on XRP and Solana funds. The extensions keep institutional staking access and altcoin ETF timelines uncertain. New deadlines later this fall will guide issuer amendments and investor expectations. 
  • Spot Ether ETFs Shed $952M Over 5 Days as Recession Fears Grow: U.S. spot Ether ETFs recorded five straight days of outflows totaling about $952 million. The withdrawals contrasted with concurrent inflows into Bitcoin products despite ETH’s strong August performance. Flows around upcoming macro data and regulatory milestones will be key signals for near-term ETH direction. 
  • Kiln exits Ethereum validators in safety move after SwissBorg’s $40 million hack: Staking provider Kiln began an “orderly exit” of all Ethereum validators as a precaution following the SwissBorg exploit. The company said client assets remain protected while the exit process runs, and operations are being hardened. Observers are watching the validator exit queue and Kiln’s investigation updates for any network or service impacts.
  • SEC, CFTC Chiefs Say Crypto Turf Wars Over as Agencies Move Ahead on Joint Work: Leaders of the SEC and CFTC said they have ended jurisdictional conflicts and will coordinate on digital-asset oversight. The announcement focused on joint approaches to DeFi, perpetual futures, and 24/7 markets. A scheduled roundtable later this month will provide more details on regulatory priorities.
  • Legislation Steering U.S. Fate of Crypto Emerges in New Version in Senate: Senate Banking unveiled a revised draft of the digital-asset market structure bill. The proposal seeks to clarify the roles of the SEC and CFTC while establishing exchange rules. Markups and bipartisan negotiations are expected in the coming weeks.
  • Dems Respond to GOP’s Crypto Market Structure Bill With Framework of Priorities: Senate Democrats presented their own digital-asset oversight framework in response to a Republican draft. Their priorities include clearer SEC/CFTC mandates and stronger consumer protections. Negotiations between the two proposals will determine whether a compromise bill can advance.
  • Michael Saylor’s Strategy Buys Another 1,955 BTC for $217M: MicroStrategy added 1,955 BTC to its balance sheet for roughly $217 million. The purchase underscores ongoing corporate treasury demand for Bitcoin despite macro uncertainty. Investors will watch for any subsequent equity raises and updated average cost disclosures.
  • Sora Ventures to Buy $1B in Bitcoin With New Treasury Fund: Sora Ventures launched a bitcoin treasury vehicle targeting up to $1 billion in purchases. The initiative aims to catalyze Asian corporate adoption and deepen liquidity. Deployment pace and custody arrangements will be key to gauging market impact.
  • Binance and Franklin Templeton partner on tokenization: Franklin Templeton and Binance announced a collaboration focused on tokenization and trading infrastructure. The tie-up could expand distribution channels and accelerate real-world asset products. Details on pilots, jurisdictions, and compliance frameworks are the next milestones.
  • Cboe to debut bitcoin and ether ‘Continuous’ futures in November: Cboe Futures Exchange plans to launch long-dated Bitcoin and Ether contracts in November. The new “Continuous” futures are designed to provide more flexible hedging and exposure for institutions. Listing details on margining and liquidity support will arrive closer to launch.
  • Crypto Institutional Adoption Appears to Be in the Early Phases: JPMorgan: A JPMorgan report highlighted improving regulatory clarity and increasing ETP ownership as early signs of adoption. The bank noted Ether and Solana as leading institutional expressions alongside Bitcoin. Future growth will hinge on ETF developments, custody solutions, and broader product pipelines.
  • Bitcoin Price Gets a Boost From Producer Price Index Print: Softer-than-expected U.S. producer price data lifted Bitcoin prices modestly. Traders viewed the release as supporting near-term rate cut expectations. Market focus now turns to CPI as the more decisive inflation print.
  • Risk-On Positions Undermined by 1M U.S. Jobs Revision: Crypto Daybook Americas: A large downward revision to prior U.S. payrolls weakened risk appetite across markets. The growth scare tempered bullish positioning in equities and crypto. Attention now turns to CPI and how the Fed interprets the labor signal.
  • Bitcoin Doesn’t Cheer Fed Cut Bets. What Next?: Despite rising odds of rate cuts, Bitcoin’s price response remained muted. Sticky inflation risks and positioning likely capped upside. Traders look to next week’s CPI and policy guidance for clearer direction.
  • Asia Morning Briefing: Bitcoin’s Calm Masks Market Tension Ahead of Fed and CPI: Bitcoin hovered in a tight range during Asia hours as key macro events approached. Desks cited balanced risks with volatility likely around inflation data and the Fed meeting. The focus is on liquidity conditions and any cross-asset spillovers.
  • Crypto Market Today: WLD, MYX Surge as Gold Hits Inflation-Adjusted Record High: Gold set another inflation-adjusted record, shaping the broader macro backdrop for risk assets. While BTC’s correlation to gold is unstable, narrative spillovers from a strong bullion bid can influence cross-asset positioning. Traders are watching real yields and the dollar for confirmation of the macro trend.
  • Dogecoin ETF to Launch as First US Fund to Hold Asset With ‘No Utility’: The first U.S. DOGE ETF is set to debut, expanding crypto ETPs beyond blue-chip assets. The listing tests mainstream demand for a memecoin vehicle and could widen retail participation. Early trading volumes, spreads, and any knock-on filings for other altcoin ETFs are the key watch-items.
  • Kazakhstan’s AFSA pilots stablecoin payments for regulatory fees: The Astana Financial Services Authority launched a pilot allowing firms to pay certain fees in stablecoins via an exchange integration. The move signals ongoing government experimentation with blockchain-based payments in a regulated setting. Outcomes from the pilot will inform whether the program expands to more services and agencies.

Bitcoin Market Analysis

Bitcoin traded in a steady range this past week, moving between $110,000 and $114,300 before closing at $113,846, about 2.8% higher than the previous week. The $110,000 level acted as a firm floor, while sellers repeatedly capped price near $114,000. This narrow range reflected compressed volatility, a pattern similar to mid-2023 that preceded a notable increase in price swings later in the year. For now, the market has held its ground, with conditions suggesting that a larger move could be approaching.

Source: https://altfins.com/technical-analysis 

The market structure remains intact with Bitcoin holding above the 200-day moving average at $101,889. Support has been reinforced around $112,000 and $110,000, while resistance continues to cluster near $121,000 and $129,000. Indicators such as RSI, sitting around 49, and a flat MACD point to a balanced setup with neither strong bullish nor bearish momentum. With price compression building, a break outside this band is often the signal for volatility to return.

Source: https://sosovalue.com/assets/etf/us-btc-spot

Flows and corporate activity played a central role during the week. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States recorded $368 million in inflows on September 8, their strongest since August, followed by an even larger $757 million inflow on September 10. Cumulative net inflows climbed back above $55.6 billion, reversing earlier outflows. At the same time, Ether ETFs shed nearly $952 million, highlighting a rotation into Bitcoin. Corporate news reinforced the demand backdrop, with MicroStrategy disclosing a purchase of 1,955 BTC worth $217 million, and Sora Ventures unveiling a $1 billion Bitcoin treasury fund.

Macro data shaped sentiment through the week. Softer U.S. producer price figures lifted Bitcoin above $113,000 mid-week, while a large downward revision in payrolls weighed on broader risk appetite. Together, ETF inflows, treasury accumulation, and macro caution left the market anchored around the $112,000 to $114,000 zone. With the next U.S. CPI release and the Federal Reserve’s September meeting now in focus, Bitcoin remains poised for a volatility reset, with liquidity flows acting as the clearest signal.

On-chain metrics add another perspective. The MVRV ratio is near 2.1, suggesting Bitcoin is neither overheated nor in capitulation. Historically, readings near 1 have marked deep bottoms, while levels above 3–4 have coincided with cycle tops. The current mid-range valuation fits with the ongoing consolidation, pointing to a market that is balanced rather than stretched. During past Fed easing cycles, MVRV dipped sharply as panic set in, then rebounded as liquidity returned, often setting the stage for sustained rallies.

Large holder behavior shows a similar rhythm. The Whale Ratio tends to spike around policy shifts as whales send coins to exchanges, adding short-term selling pressure. As conditions stabilize, the ratio falls, signaling withdrawals and renewed accumulation. This was visible in March 2020 and again in late 2024. In the current setup, a brief wave of selling could follow the Fed’s policy move, but if whales repeat past patterns, a return to accumulation would again align with the foundations of a new upside phase.

Ethereum Market Analysis

Ethereum traded within a relatively tight band this past week, opening near $4,305 on September 5 and closing at $4,383 on September 11, a 1.8 percent gain. The weekly high reached $4,487 on September 5, while the low touched $4,244 on September 6. For most of the period, ETH stayed anchored in the $4,250–$4,400 range, mirroring Bitcoin’s consolidation. Price found steady support near $4,250 but struggled to break above $4,400, reflecting broader macro caution and concentrated liquidity.

Source: https://altfins.com/technical-analysis 

The market structure remains constructive, with ETH trading above its 200-day EMA, keeping the long-term trend intact. Support has held around $4,250 and $4,100–$4,200, while resistance formed at $4,350–$4,400 and further out at $4,500. Momentum indicators leaned positive, with RSI near 63 and MACD in favorable territory, though oscillators suggested fading short-term strength. The chart pattern resembled a symmetrical triangle, showing compression in volatility and setting the stage for a potential breakout when a catalyst emerges.

Source: https://sosovalue.com/assets/etf/us-eth-spot 

ETF flows and regulatory developments weighed on sentiment. U.S. spot Ether ETFs saw $952 million in outflows over five sessions, contrasting with Bitcoin inflows. The chart above shows the pressure clearly, with daily net losses of $96.69 million on September 8 and $166.71 million on September 4, pulling cumulative inflows back near $12.3 billion. There were brief positives, like $171.54 million in inflows on September 10, but the broader pattern highlighted weak demand. At the same time, the SEC delayed its decision on staking within Ether ETFs, while Kiln began an orderly exit from validators after the SwissBorg hack, keeping infrastructure and regulatory uncertainty in focus.

Despite these setbacks, Ethereum continued to feature in long-term institutional narratives. Cboe confirmed Ether “Continuous” futures will launch in November alongside Bitcoin, expanding regulated product access for institutions. In addition, JPMorgan noted Ethereum, alongside Solana, as one of the leading institutional expressions of digital assets in its latest report, highlighting ETH’s role despite near-term pressure from flows and regulatory delays.

Trading activity concentrated in the $4,250–$4,400 zone, keeping volatility suppressed. ETF outflows and regulatory hesitation added downward weight, while institutional adoption signals and upcoming product launches provided support on the other side. A move above $4,450–$4,500 would likely mark a breakout and renew momentum, while a loss of $4,250 could leave ETH vulnerable to tests of $4,100 or even $4,000. Like Bitcoin, Ethereum is in a compression phase, with the upcoming U.S. CPI release and the Federal Reserve’s September meeting positioned to dictate the next decisive swing.

September CPI and Rate Cut Expectations

The August U.S. CPI release on September 11 is shaping up as a decisive moment for markets. Forecasts call for headline inflation at 0.3% month on month (2.9% year on year) and core at 0.3% (3.1%). Gasoline and tariff effects are expected to lift the headline, while underlying demand remains mixed. This release comes directly after Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks, where he stressed flexibility and data dependence, meaning the CPI outcome will heavily influence the Fed’s confidence in its disinflation path.

Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar 

Bitcoin traders are positioning cautiously ahead of the print. Short-dated options implied volatility has climbed, with a tilt toward puts reflecting concern about downside risk if inflation comes in hot. At the same time, longer-dated calls remain in demand, showing that traders want to keep upside optionality in case of a relief rally. ETF flows have been volatile, flipping between sharp outflows and strong inflow.

For the September Fed meeting, the stakes are clear. A CPI print that matches or undershoots expectations would support Powell’s message and reopen the path to a rate cut without undermining credibility. A stronger reading, however, could force the Fed to wait, pushing risk assets into another bout of volatility. For crypto investors, the setup is binary: softer CPI offers relief and potential upside, while a hotter print extends the current range and keeps traders defensive.

Mark Your Calendars

Economic Data Releases:

  • September 17, 2025 (Wednesday): FOMC interest-rate decision
  • September 17, 2025 (Wednesday): Fed Chair Powell press conference

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