Forced Selling Crash Sends Bitcoin to a New 15-Month Low as Ethereum Breaks Down

5th February 2026 • 9mins read

Bitcoin Market Analysis

A sharp repricing was recorded across the week, with daily closes sliding from $84,235.5 on Jan 30 to $73,137.0 on Feb 4, and a close of $73,016.2 being listed on Feb 5. Over the same seven day window, a high of $84,705.1 and a low of $71,913.4 were posted, confirming that late week trading was conducted near the bottom of the range. A new 15 month low under $73,000 was also reported during the move, with Bitstamp briefly printed below $72,500. More than $800,000,000 in 24 hour crypto liquidations was reported around that downside extension, which aligned with the week’s heavy forced selling conditions.

Source: https://altfins.com/technical-analysis 

Oversold signals were reinforced by multiple oscillators, with RSI-14 shown below 30 and an RSI reading of 27.07.  Bearish momentum was also indicated by MACD, with negative readings being listed and the MACD line having been described as below its signal line for several weeks. Elevated volatility was reflected by ATR near $3,581.98, and wide daily ranges were evidenced by intraday prints spanning the low $71,000s to the mid $70,000s. Bollinger Bands were also shown as wide, with the lower band near $72,837.62 and the upper band near $97,769.35, which placed spot near the lower envelope during the selloff.

The breakdown below $82,000 was treated as the structural pivot, with the prior range of $82,000 to $94,000 having been described as resolved to the downside. The $74,000 to $76,000 zone was framed as the nearest support band now being tested, with $70,000 marked as the next lower support if acceptance below the current base is sustained. Overhead supply was defined at $82,000, with additional resistance bands at $88,000 and $94,000. A higher cap was also identified by the 200 day average region, with the 200 SMA shown near $103,326.87, leaving mean reversion levels well above spot.

Near term expectations have been best framed as conditional rather than directional, given the combination of a strong downtrend and oversold readings. A bounce setup has been supported by the oversold at support framework, where RSI below 30 near a mapped support zone has historically been associated with a higher probability of a near term rebound, although timing certainty has not been available. Any stabilization case has been strengthened only if closes are held above the $74,000 to $76,000 band, while a downside continuation case has been strengthened if sustained closes are recorded below $70,000. A recovery attempt would be treated as more credible only if $82,000 is reclaimed and held, because that level has been converted from support into supply during the breakdown.

Source: https://sosovalue.com/assets/etf/us-btc-spot 

ETF flow dynamics were aligned with the risk off tape. Across the last seven ETF sessions listed, net outflows of about $1.20 billion were recorded, with the largest single day outflow listed at $817.87 million, while a one day rebound inflow of $561.89 million was also listed without a sustained reversal being confirmed. ETF assets were reported as having slipped below $100B after about $272.02 million of net outflows, and the prior session was reported as having delivered an ETF bounce of about $562 million following a multi day outflow streak.

The broader backdrop was characterized by fragile liquidity and forced selling, and it was reinforced by several concurrent stress indicators. A thin-liquidity weekend rout was reported as having erased roughly $290,000,000,000 of total crypto market capitalization before stabilization was seen. Network conditions were also placed on watch after a hashrate drop of about 12 percent since mid November was reported, and the tape was framed as being weighed by liquidity worries as the decline extended below $80,000. A near-term rebound has remained possible given oversold conditions near support, but durability has remained unproven until $82,000 is reclaimed and held, and uncertainty on timing has needed to be stated plainly while trend and flows remain adverse.

Ethereum Market Analysis 

A sharp repricing was recorded across the week, with daily closes sliding from $84,235.5 on Jan 30 to $73,137.0 on Feb 4, and a close of $73,016.2 being listed on Feb 5. Over the same seven day window, a high of $84,705.1 and a low of $71,913.4 were posted, confirming that late week trading was conducted near the bottom of the range. A new 15 month low under $73,000 was also reported during the move, with Bitstamp briefly printed below $72,500. More than $800,000,000 in 24 hour crypto liquidations was reported around that downside extension, which aligned with the week’s heavy forced selling conditions.

Source: https://altfins.com/technical-analysis 

Oversold conditions were confirmed by RSI(14) readings shown below 30, while bearish momentum was reinforced by a bearish MACD configuration in the same indicator set. A Strong Sell technical posture was also presented on ETH technicals, with moving averages being described as uniformly bearish across the standard ladder. Volatility was indicated as elevated by ATR near 179.67, while the Bollinger envelope was presented with a lower band near 2,083.49 and an upper band near 3,464.62, which placed price near the lower region of the envelope and aligned with the oversold signal.

Key levels were defined by support near 2,100 followed by 2,000, while resistance was identified near 2,700 followed by 3,050, and the structure was kept consistent with a downtrend after the loss of 2,700. A tactical rebound profile was supported by oversold momentum near support, but durability could not be confirmed without higher daily closes being established and momentum readings being improved. A downside invalidation for the immediate support thesis was represented by sustained acceptance below 2,100, while a clean loss of 2,000 was expected to deepen downside risk by placing price beneath the nearest defined demand band.

Source: https://sosovalue.com/assets/etf/us-eth-spot 

Spot ETH ETF positioning was dominated by outflows across the late January selloff days, while the most recent reported session was marked by a modest inflow that did not reverse the broader drawdown in net assets. A net inflow of about $14.06 million on Feb 3 was reported for spot ether ETFs in coverage referencing SoSoValue, as described in ETF inflows. Total net assets near $13.388 billion and cumulative net inflow near $11.986 billion were also reported as summarised in net asset data. The flow profile was therefore kept consistent with de risk positioning into a technical breakdown, with only limited evidence of near-term stabilisation having been presented by the latest daily print.

A constructive medium term adoption driver was introduced through the launch of Fidelity Digital Dollar (FIDD), which was described as a USD stablecoin issued by Fidelity Digital Assets, National Association, made available for purchase and redemption at 1 to 1, and deployed on Ethereum, with end of day disclosures described for circulating supply and reserve net asset value in Fidelity FIDD. A supportive narrative for Ethereum settlement usage was strengthened by that launch detail, but near term direction was still governed primarily by the broken 2,700 zone overhead, the 2,100 to 2,000 support band beneath, and the persistence of oversold yet bearish momentum. Any linkage to tariffs, China policy responses, or U.S. dollar dynamics could not be verified from the provided inputs and was therefore treated as uncertain.

Bitcoin Hashrate Drawdown

Recent coverage has highlighted a sharp drawdown in Bitcoin’s network hashrate, with the move often framed as unusually large versus typical week to week variation. The most consistent explanation for this kind of step down is a short-lived reduction in miner uptime, where weather, grid constraints, or curtailment programs can take meaningful capacity offline quickly and then bring it back once conditions normalise. That is a different signal from a slow, structural decline, which would usually be associated with a sustained exit of marginal operators over multiple difficulty cycles.

Source: https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/charts/hash-rate 

The question of whether the drawdown should be treated as worrying is therefore a question of persistence and economics. A temporary hashrate dip tends to be self-correcting through the difficulty mechanism, because slower blocks are followed by lower difficulty at the next reset, which improves revenue per unit of hashrate for miners who remain online. Concern rises when the hashrate remains depressed after the reset window and when unit economics stay weak, because that combination points to margin stress rather than a pure uptime event.

Source: https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/charts/miners-revenue 

At the same time, miner revenue has also pulled back, which is the more actionable linkage to market supply. Mining is a cash-cost business, so when revenue compresses, the share of newly mined BTC that must be sold to fund operations tends to rise, and the weakest balance sheets can be pressured to reduce reserves during sustained stress. The practical read-through is that the hashrate headline is best treated as a prompt to monitor miner economics closely, because persistent revenue weakness is the condition that most directly increases the probability of incremental spot supply from miners.

Mark Your Calendars

Economic Data Releases:

  • February 11, 2026 (Wednesday): CPI and Core CPI

Token Unlock

  • February 5, 2026 (Thursday): ENA (ENA) unlocks US$23.00 M 
  • February 6, 2026 (Friday): HYPE (HYPE) unlocks US$350.46 M 
  • February 6, 2026 (Friday): BERA (BERA) unlocks US$27.60 M
  • February 10, 2026 (Tuesday): APT (APT) unlocks US$13.80 M
  • February 11, 2026 (Wednesday): AVAX (AVAX) unlocks US$16.15 M