This Week’s Recap

Bitcoin Market Analysis   

Over the past seven days Bitcoin has traded in a relatively tight range, dipping to a low below $94,000 on May 5 before rallying to a high just above $97,000 by May 8. After breaking back above its 200-day simple moving average around $90,500, price consolidated between that dynamic support and initial resistance in the $97,000–$98,000 zone. Key levels to watch remain $90,000 as the first line of defense on any pullback, $100,000 as the next major hurdle and psychological milestone, and the late-2024 all-time high area near $108,000 for a sustained breakout target.

Source: https://altfins.com/technical-analysis

Technical indicators reinforce the bullish bias established by price action. The 14-day Relative Strength Index has held above 60 for most of the week, indicating sustained buying momentum yet remaining below overbought territory at 70, which suggests further upside is possible before a corrective pullback. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence histogram turned positive after the MACD line crossed above its signal line early in the week, confirming a shift from bearish to bullish momentum. Volume on up-moves has been above the two-week average, lending conviction to breakouts above short-term trendlines, while the 200-day simple moving average around $90,500 has provided reliable support on intraday dips. Continuous higher highs and higher lows since the breakout signal a developing uptrend across both short and medium timeframes.

On the institutional side, BlackRock’s IBIT has now seen 16 straight days of net inflows, taking total 2025 subscriptions towards $7 billion as macro uncertainty and Fed rate stability drive allocators into digital gold alternatives. Meanwhile, Grayscale and Fidelity products are also reporting weekly inflows, painting a broad institutional bid under spot BTC. On the network side, Bitcoin Core devs are poised to lift the 80-byte OP_RETURN cap, a move aimed at reducing on-chain clutter and aligning relay and mining policies; detractors caution it could allow frivolous data embeds that bloat node storage. The upgrade timing remains under debate, but when activated, it could subtly shift how developers use Bitcoin for timestamping and metadata.

Source:  https://www.theblock.co/data/crypto-markets/bitcoin-etf/blackrock-ibit-flows

BTC’s dominance hit 64.73%, a four-year peak, as total crypto market cap approached $3 trillion. Historically, dominance surges above 60% often coincide with underperformance in smaller altcoins, money concentrates in the perceived safest large-cap network. That said, should BTC vault and hold above $100 k, profit-taking into high-quality large-cap altcoins—such as ETH, BNB, and SOL—could resume, marking the start of a measured alt season. Key metrics to watch include ETH / BTC cross-rate and DeFi TVL flows, which have begun to tick up modestly after two months of outflows. A decisive breach of BTC’s near-term highs coupled with a rise in small-cap market cap share would confirm a broader rotation back into altcoins.

Source: https://x.com/rektcapital/ 

At its May 7 meeting the FOMC held rates at 4.25–4.50 percent as expected, yet Jerome Powell’s decidedly cautious tone still triggered an immediate Bitcoin dip—from roughly $97 K down toward $95 K—before a rapid recovery into the close. Overlaying realized cap shows this pullback and rebound coincided with a sharp uptick in the aggregate cost basis of on-chain holdings, climbing from about $880 billion to $890 billion within hours of the announcement. That rise in realized cap suggests fresh capital was deployed into Bitcoin even as traders digested Fed commentary, underscoring how institutional and long-term holders viewed any dip as a buying opportunity rather than a signal to exit. Continuous strength in realized cap alongside price resilience around the 200-day SMA highlights the market’s conviction amid policy-driven volatility.

Bitcoin Realized Cap Overlay

Source: https://cryptoquant.com

Strong support is being observed around $94,400, with the risk that prices could be driven back to $91,500–$92,000 by a persistently hawkish Fed stance. At the same time, a move toward $100,000 is already being approached, and even a hint of dovish policy could accelerate the advance. Healthy demand is being indicated by large-scale accumulation and steady ETF inflows, suggesting that any Fed-driven pullback would be viewed as a buying opportunity. Overall, cautious optimism is being maintained: those key support and resistance levels should be monitored, and leverage should be managed carefully as volatility continues to be driven by monetary policy.

Ethereum Market Analysis    


Over the past week, ETH traded within $1,754–$1,909, closing at $1,906 on May 8 after bouncing from the $1,800–$1,820 support band (coinciding with the 50-day MA) and briefly testing the $1,900 pivot zone. Intraday swings peaked at $1,909—the highest level since late April—before a mild pullback into the close. On any dip, $1,820 and $1,800 remain the first lines of defense, while sustained strength above $1,909 would expose the $2,000 round-number cap and then the late-2024 swing high near $2,100.

Source: https://altfins.com/technical-analysis

Ethereum’s 14-day RSI has gravitated around the mid-50s, holding above 50 for five consecutive sessions and indicating controlled bullish pressure without overextension. The MACD line crossed above its signal line on May 4, and the histogram has since expanded, confirming a shift to positive momentum. Volume on up-days averaged 15 percent above the seven-day mean, giving conviction to breakouts above short-term trendlines. Meanwhile, ETH’s 7-day realized volatility eased from 4 percent to 3.2 percent, suggesting chop rather than panic, and funding rates in perpetual swap markets hovered at +6 bps—bullish, but not extreme.

Meanwhile, the Pectra Upgrade emerged as the most significant protocol fork since Shanghai. Its genesis lay in two years of on-chain congestion driven by surging DeFi and NFT activity and mounting pressure on node operators grappling with growing state bloat. Following community debates and multiple testnet iterations in Jan–Feb 2025, the Ethereum Foundation greenlit the May 2025 mainnet activation, marking the culmination of a rigorous multi-stage rollout process.

Pectra integrates eleven EIPs to boost throughput, streamline node operations, and strengthen staking infrastructure. On the execution layer, EIP-7691 (proto-danksharding) doubles per-block blob capacity—“Pectra will double L2 capacity by increasing the blob target from 3 to 6,” as Vitalik Buterin explained—dramatically cutting rollup fees and smoothing calldata flows. EIP-4444 (state expiry) lets full nodes prune cold state, which Vitalik called “critical for hobbyist and small-validator decentralization,” keeping hardware requirements manageable. EIP-2537 (BLS12-381 precompile) accelerates signature verification for rollups and bridges, while EIP-2935 (historical block hashes) and EIP-7623 (calldata cost adjustment) optimize data access and gas accounting. Execution-layer tweaks—EIP-7549 (attestation indexing), EIP-7685 (general execution requests), and compact block propagation—also cut uncle-rates by up to 15 percent, reducing wasted work and lowering finality variance.

Source: https://ultrasound.money/

On the consensus side, EIP-7002 (triggerable withdrawals) and EIP-6110 (on-chain validator deposits) streamline validator exits and deposits, with Vitalik noting that triggerable exits “open the door to more professional staking operations.” EIP-7702 (account abstraction) enhances smart-contract wallets—though Vitalik cautioned to “delegate exactly one well-audited contract” to avoid complexity—and EIP-7251 (MAX_EFFECTIVE_BALANCE increase) permits larger stakes per validator. Together, these upgrades not only improve today’s usability but also lay a modular foundation for rapid future enhancements and institutional staking products, such as yield-bearing ETH ETFs.

Before Pectra news on, February 16 2025, staking saw a net outflow of roughly 1.02 million ETH—from about 34.88 million down to 33.86 million—reflecting cautious holders unwinding ahead of the protocol fork. Once Pectra activated, that trend reversed: by February 16, total staked ETH climbed by approximately 627 000 (up to 34.41 million), underscoring renewed confidence in staking rewards and network reliability. The pre-upgrade drawdown reflected regulatory uncertainty and fears over validator downtime, whereas the post-May 7 rebound highlights growing conviction that yield mechanics have improved and operational risks have been mitigated. As retail and institutional participants recommit capital, this inflow lays the foundation for even larger stakes—especially if regulators soon green-light staking-friendly ETFs and other yield-bearing products.

Source: https://cryptoquant.com/

Regulatory Landscape

Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed for cloture on the GENIUS Act, scheduling a procedural vote for Thursday, May 8. Reaching cloture requires 60 votes, and without it the bill would be stalled indefinitely. Informal talks between Thune, Senators Mark Warner (D-VA), Martin Heinrich (D-NM), and others are weighing amendments to strengthen anti-money-laundering safeguards and tighten national-security oversight in hopes of securing enough Democratic support.

Meanwhile, the House is advancing its own approach: the Financial Services and Agriculture Committees have introduced a separate crypto market-structure bill that embeds robust stablecoin rules. This proposal mandates one-to-one asset backing, bans rehypothecation of reserve assets, and requires issuers to publish monthly reserve reports—signaling bipartisan interest in stablecoin oversight despite the Senate’s more contentious negotiations.

Mark Your Calendars

  • May 8, 2025: Initial release of Q1 2025 U.S. Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)
  • May 13, 2025: U.S. Consumer Price Index (April) published at 8:30 AM ET
  • May 14, 2025: U.S. Producer Price Index (April) released at 8:30 AM ET
  • May 15, 2025: Detailed PPI YoY & MoM breakdown for April becomes available at 7:30 AM

Token Unlock

  • May 11, 2025: Solayer (LAYER) unlocks 27.02 M LAYER ($86.7 M; 12.87 % of circulating supply)
  • May 12, 2025: Aptos (APT) unlocks 11.31 M APT ($63.7 M; 1.82 % of market cap)

May 16, 2025: Arbitrum (ARB) unlocks 92.63 M ARB ($XX.X M; 1.95 % of market cap)