Executive brief
The digital asset market is currently navigating a period of significant structural change against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical volatility. While traditional markets were closed for the holiday weekend, Bitcoin has functioned as a 24/7 monitor for global risk, particularly as tensions in the Middle East escalate following President Trump’s 48-hour warning to Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz. This geopolitical pressure has already seen WTI crude surge to $111.54 a barrel, complicating the macro outlook for risk assets as inflation expectations tighten. Despite these headwinds, domestic economic data remains robust, with the US adding 178,000 jobs in March, exceeding market forecasts.
Regulatory developments are providing a new directional cue for the industry as the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency granted conditional approval for a national trust charter to Coinbase. This move signals a deliberate effort by Washington to bring major crypto custodians into the federal banking perimeter. However, institutional conviction is facing a liquidity test. While some entities continue to accumulate, corporate selling has accelerated as firms like Genius Group and Riot Platforms liquidate holdings to cover debt and operational costs. A primary risk factor remains the security of decentralised protocols, underscored by a $285m exploit of Drift Protocol allegedly linked to the Lazarus Group.
The current market consolidation presents a potential opportunity as several on-chain metrics suggest the formation of a market bottom. Analysts have noted that Bitcoin’s supply in profit has dropped to 11.3m BTC, a level historically associated with cycle troughs. If geopolitical risks stabilise, a recovery towards the $71,500 level remains a technical possibility, though a prolonged energy shock remains the dominant tail risk for the second quarter.
1) Top 20 news headlines
- Circle under fire as $230m in stolen USDC flows unblocked; the Drift Protocol exploit has resulted in a $285m loss for the Solana ecosystem.
- Coinbase receives conditional approval for national trust charter from OCC; the approval allows for federal uniformity across the firm’s $12t custody infrastructure.
- Ethereum Foundation stakes $93m in ether to reach target; the non-profit has successfully completed its goal of staking 70,000 ETH.
- CFTC sues three states over sports prediction markets; the regulator is seeking to establish exclusive federal jurisdiction over event contracts as state gaming taxes lost reach $620m.
- Charles Schwab to launch spot crypto trading in 2026; the financial giant plans to offer direct Bitcoin and ether trading to clients holding $12t in assets.
- Bitcoin market demand contracting by 63,000 BTC monthly; institutional buying has not yet offset the 188,000 BTC distributed by large holders over the past year.
- SpaceX IPO to target $2t valuation with BTC on balance sheet; the firm reportedly holds 8,285 BTC, making it a significant private corporate holder.
- Cardano Foundation shifts reserves away from ADA; Bitcoin and cash now account for nearly 48.4% of the foundation’s $361m in total assets.
- Bitcoin falls into cycle bottom discovery zone; supply in profit has dropped to 11.3m BTC, matching levels seen in previous market capitulations.
- Corporate Bitcoin sellers emerge as debt pressures mount; Genius Group sold its remaining 84 BTC to settle $8.5m in outstanding debt.
- Circle announces plans for wrapped token cirBTC; the move marks Circle’s return to Bitcoin products after sunsetting Circle Pay in 2019.
- Telegram rolls out perpetual futures to 150m users; the integration with Lighter allows in-app trading for the messaging platform’s wallet users.
- Kroll gives Ripple Prime medium quality rating; the investment-grade tier is supported by Ripple’s $57b balance sheet of cash and XRP.
- Hyperliquid perp market share approaches 6%; monthly volumes on the decentralised exchange reached approximately $200b in March.
- Solana meme coin rallies 1,400% after April Fools prank; the JONATHAN token reached a high of $0.00038 following the social media event.
- JPMorgan notes Q1 crypto flows dropped to $11b; the figure represents a significant decline from the $130b in total inflows recorded during 2025.
- Naoris Protocol launches quantum-resistant mainnet; the network uses NIST-approved algorithms to secure against future “Q-Day” threats.
- Cambodia passes strict anti-technology fraud law; the new legislation introduces five specific offences to target regional crypto scam compounds.
- Ex-UK Chancellor backs Bitcoin as fiscal alternative; Kwasi Kwarteng has joined Stack BTC, citing current UK market turmoil as a driver for adoption.
- Riot Platforms sells $290m of Bitcoin in Q1; the miner is shifting resources towards AI and high-performance computing infrastructure.
2) BTC and ETH ETF flows
| Metric | BTC | ETH |
|---|---|---|
| Net inflow | $8.99m | -$71.17m |
| Value traded | $1.97b | $970.11m |
| Net assets | $86.22b | $11.70b |
| Cumulative net inflow | $55.96b | $11.48b |
3) X trending news
- Trump issues 48-hour ultimatum; Iran has been warned to open the Strait of Hormuz or face military action.
- Israel prepares energy facility strikes; reports indicate Israeli forces are awaiting a green light for attacks within 1 week.
- Saylor declares four-year cycle dead; Michael Saylor suggests the traditional halving cycle no longer governs price action.
- Global food prices rise 2.4%; surging energy costs and shipping disruptions have pushed the food index to 128.5 points.
- US unemployment falls to 4.3%; the March labor report showed a jobless rate lower than analysts’ expectations.
- Hedge funds shorting at record pace; short sales in global equities outpaced long purchases by a ratio of 7.6 to 1 in March.
- Bieber Bored Ape value collapses; an NFT purchased for $1.3m in 2022 is now reportedly valued at $12,000.
- Middle East oil exports plunge 63%; the energy crisis has seen product flows drop by 4.8m barrels per day in March.