Executive brief

The global market landscape shifted dramatically following President Trump’s declaration that the ceasefire with Iran is over. This geopolitical escalation immediately triggered a 5% surge in crude oil prices, with Brent crude rising above $80 per barrel. Bitcoin responded with significant volatility, sliding toward $62,000 as risk appetite waned across both digital and traditional assets. The primary driver for the current market weakness is the potential for an energy-driven inflation shock, which could force the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance or even consider additional interest rate hikes. This risk is compounded by a high-leverage environment in Bitcoin futures, where daily volume reached $78.9b, leaving the asset sensitive to sudden liquidations.

Despite the macroeconomic turbulence, institutional infrastructure continues to expand. Vanguard, overseeing $12t in assets, has opened a search for a digital assets lead, signalling a significant strategy shift. Additionally, the SEC is expected to propose a new crypto rule this month to facilitate fundraising for startups. On-chain activity remains a bright spot, as tokenized equities reached record volumes of $3.86b in June. However, internal liquidity tests are emerging for crypto-native firms. Pump.fun faces a $127m token unlock, while Bitcoin miners are increasingly using treasury holdings as collateral rather than selling coins. Investors should monitor the upcoming US CPI release on July 14, as persistent energy costs could provide a bearish directional cue for digital assets.

1) Top 20 news headlines

2) BTC and ETH ETF flows

Metric BTC ETH
Net inflow $21,435,004 $26,925,212
Value traded $1,507,451,106 $388,452,205
Net assets $77,259,139,787 $9,525,922,787
Cumulative net inflow $51,366,299,042 $10,936,626,400

3) X trending news

  • Trump declares ceasefire over; Bitcoin fell under $62,000 as oil prices surged past $79 following the announcement.
  • Tokenized equity volume record; volume reached $3.4b in June, marking 279% month-over-month growth.
  • US debt interest expense; interest on public debt has reached 3.2% of GDP, the highest level since at least the 1970s.
  • Gold seasonality; prices have historically gained 1.5% in July on average over the last 20 years.
  • Strait of Hormuz blockade; the US is considering reimposing a blockade on the corridor that handles 20 million barrels per day.
  • Fed officials support hike; a few Federal Reserve officials reportedly expressed support for raising interest rates to combat inflation.
  • SpaceX Grok 4.5 launch; Elon Musk’s SpaceXAI officially launched its newest AI model as sector competition intensifies.
  • BNB Chain agentic trading; a new Layer 1 is set to launch for agentic trading with sub-50 millisecond transactions.