Executive brief
Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market are navigating a period of significant macro instability, highlighted by a sharp divergence between Bitcoin shooting above $72,000 on Middle East ceasefire hopes and US GDP growth stalling at 0.5%. While the tentative truce between the US and Iran has cooled the immediate energy panic, oil volatility remains a primary driver for risk appetite. The market is increasingly sensitive to reports that Iran intends to charge tankers a Bitcoin toll for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, effectively embedding crypto into global trade infrastructure. This development presents a clear directional cue: the movement of oil prices toward $150 or a drop to pre-shock levels will dictate whether Bitcoin continues its bull run to $80,000 or retreats.
Simultaneously, institutional integration is accelerating despite the macro noise. Morgan Stanley’s new spot Bitcoin ETF debuted with $30.6m in net inflows, signaling that traditional finance continues to manufacture exposure even as US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows overall. A notable risk cue emerges from the Ethereum Foundation’s ongoing ETH sales, which challenge the “less selling” narrative built around its staking initiatives. Furthermore, the security risk to developers remains elevated as mainstream media attempts to unmask the creator of Bitcoin, potentially exposing individuals to physical threats. Overall, the market is caught in a contradiction where institutional adoption and geopolitical utility collide with a weakening US economy and persistent inflation.
1) Top 20 news headlines
- Kalshi captures 89% of U.S. prediction market; the platform now dominates the regulated sector as federal authorities seek to block state-level gambling enforcement;
- US GDP growth revised down to 0.5%; fourth quarter 2025 growth slowed significantly from the 4.4% pace recorded in the third quarter;
- Morgan Stanley’s MSBT debuts with $30.6m inflow; the bank-issued spot Bitcoin ETF purchased 430 BTC on its first day of trading;
- Adam Back denies Satoshi Nakamoto identity; an investigation into the $78b stash has triggered security fears for the Blockstream co-founder;
- Binance Wallet rolls out gas-free prediction markets; the exchange integrated third-party applications to lower retail barriers for its millions of users;
- Strategy reports $14.46b unrealised loss in Q1; standard accounting rules forced the firm to slash the carrying value of its digital assets despite claims of $1.7b in gains;
- North Korea linked to $3.5m crypto network; investigators uncovered an IT worker network generating $1m monthly via fraudulent identities;
- Operation Atlantic freezes $12m in crypto; a joint operation by US, UK, and Canadian authorities disrupted over 120 fraud domains;
- Fartcoin price crashes 50% after liquidation; a $145m long position was unwound, triggering auto-deleveraging on the Hyperliquid platform;
- Bithumb moves to recover $8m in mistaken credits; the exchange is seeking to freeze assets after a promotion error credited 620,000 BTC worth over $40b;
- Stablecoin volumes projected at $719t by 2035; analysts expect a $100t generational wealth transfer to fuel massive on-chain activity;
- Ethereum Foundation converts 5,000 ETH to stablecoins; the $11.1m conversion highlights the ongoing need for operating cash despite staking rewards;
- Securitize names ex-SEC official as president; the firm, which controls 70% of the US tokenization market, appointed Brett Redfearn ahead of a potential public listing;
- World Liberty Financial borrows $75m against own token; the protocol pushed a lending pool to 100% utilization, leaving depositors unable to withdraw;
- Bitmine uplists to NYSE with $4b buyback; the company currently holds nearly 4% of the total ether supply;
- TON blockchain claims sub-second finality; the Catchain 2.0 upgrade reduced settlement times from approximately 10 seconds;
- Bhutan moves $23m in Bitcoin; the sovereign nation has trimmed its stash by approximately 70% since late 2024;
- Canary Capital files for Pepe ETF; the application comes as the token trades 85% below its December 2024 all-time high;
- Buyers circle Winklevoss-backed Gemini; parties are reportedly interested in acquiring select parts of the business to secure regulatory licenses;
- Bitcoin Depot suffers $3.7m theft; hackers stole 50.9 BTC after gaining access to corporate wallets;
2) BTC and ETH ETF flows
| Metric | BTC | ETH |
|---|---|---|
| Net inflow | -$124,547,252.17 | -$18,631,930.05 |
| Value traded | $3,038,539,278.47 | $958,096,878.60 |
| Net assets | $91,900,945,418.34 | $12,558,274,088.48 |
| Cumulative net inflow | $56,145,029,631.61 | $11,517,612,337.29 |
3) X trending news
- US GDP growth stalls; economic expansion slowed to 0.5% in the final quarter of 2025, missing expectations.
- Iran Bitcoin tolls; tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz will reportedly be required to pay fees in BTC.
- Oil prices falling; crude fell below $96 per barrel following headlines of diplomatic talks between the US, Iran, and Lebanon.
- Saudi oil facilities attacked; operations were suspended at several sites causing a production loss of 600,000 barrels per day.
- Paul Atkins calls for legislation; the SEC Chair urged Congress to pass crypto market structure bills to future-proof against rogue regulators.
- Middle East peace talks; US and Iranian delegations will reportedly hold in-person talks this Saturday in Pakistan.