Executive brief

The current market landscape is heavily dictated by the escalating Strait of Hormuz conflict, which has propelled crude prices above $96.50 per barrel. This energy shock acts as a primary directional driver, with Bitcoin holding the $70,000 level despite significant pressure on the broader equity markets. While traditional stocks saw $820 billion in value wiped out during early trading, digital assets have shown relative resilience, though analysts warn that sustained energy-driven inflation could push US CPI to 3.2%, potentially keeping the Federal Reserve cautious on rate cuts.

Regulatory developments offer a counterweight to macro volatility. The U.S. Senate’s vote to ban retail CBDCs within a bipartisan housing bill signals a growing legislative focus on financial freedom, even as the SEC and CFTC signed a coordination pact to reduce regulatory overlap. This formalisation of oversight is a key structural shift that could lower the cost of operating in US markets. Meanwhile, the institutional appetite for yield is being met by the debut of staked Ethereum ETFs from major providers like BlackRock and Grayscale. Despite a 78% collapse in speculative leverage for assets like XRP, XRP spot ETFs maintain over $1.4b in assets, suggesting a shift toward durable, long-term holders. A significant opportunity exists in the vertical integration of Bitcoin infrastructure in Japan, led by firms like Metaplanet, but the immediate risk remains the potential for a multiyear conflict to transform into a ground war, as warned by JPMorgan.

1) Top 20 news headlines

2) BTC and ETH ETF flows

Metric BTC ETH
Net inflow $115,170,994.75 $57,012,016.45
Value traded $2,734,624,090.92 $660,718,564
Net assets $90,886,036,977.99 $11,849,529,237.21
Cumulative net inflow $55,901,769,036.70 $11,646,795,621.87

3) X trending news

  • Russia oil revenue surge; higher energy prices amid the Iran war are reportedly generating an extra $150m per day for the Russian government.
  • Stock market wipeout; approximately $820b was erased from US stock markets within the first two hours of trading on Thursday.
  • Historic oil disruption; world output is expected to fall by 8m barrels per day in March, representing a 7% decline from February levels.
  • Mastercard crypto connection; a new program connects blockchain payments with global banking through partnerships with 85+ firms including Ripple and Binance.
  • Elon Musk X Money; early public access to the platform’s financial services is scheduled to launch next month.
  • US oil reserve release; the US and its allies announced a release of 572m barrels of crude oil reserves to offset Hormuz disruptions.
  • JPMorgan war warning; analysts suggest a ground war to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could transform into a multiyear conflict.
  • US gasoline prices; national average gas prices have risen to $3.60 for the first time since mid-2024.