Executive brief
The current market landscape is heavily dictated by the escalating Strait of Hormuz conflict, which has propelled crude prices above $96.50 per barrel. This energy shock acts as a primary directional driver, with Bitcoin holding the $70,000 level despite significant pressure on the broader equity markets. While traditional stocks saw $820 billion in value wiped out during early trading, digital assets have shown relative resilience, though analysts warn that sustained energy-driven inflation could push US CPI to 3.2%, potentially keeping the Federal Reserve cautious on rate cuts.
Regulatory developments offer a counterweight to macro volatility. The U.S. Senate’s vote to ban retail CBDCs within a bipartisan housing bill signals a growing legislative focus on financial freedom, even as the SEC and CFTC signed a coordination pact to reduce regulatory overlap. This formalisation of oversight is a key structural shift that could lower the cost of operating in US markets. Meanwhile, the institutional appetite for yield is being met by the debut of staked Ethereum ETFs from major providers like BlackRock and Grayscale. Despite a 78% collapse in speculative leverage for assets like XRP, XRP spot ETFs maintain over $1.4b in assets, suggesting a shift toward durable, long-term holders. A significant opportunity exists in the vertical integration of Bitcoin infrastructure in Japan, led by firms like Metaplanet, but the immediate risk remains the potential for a multiyear conflict to transform into a ground war, as warned by JPMorgan.
1) Top 20 news headlines
- SEC and CFTC sign crypto coordination pact; agencies establish a formal operating framework to address months of duplicate registrations and overlapping rules;
- U.S. Senate votes to ban CBDCs in housing bill; the measure prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing a retail digital currency until 31 December 2030;
- BlackRock debuts staked ether ETF; the fund offers spot exposure and staking rewards with a 0.12% fee on the first $2.5b in assets;
- Bitcoin holds $70,000 level amid stock tumble; BTC remains resilient as crude prices climb 10% on Thursday despite broader market risk-off sentiment;
- Alleged Ponzi scheme victims sue JPMorgan; proposed class action claims the bank served as the essential infrastructure for a $328m scam;
- Tether backs Ark Labs $5.2m seed raise; funding supports the development of a programmable execution layer for stablecoins on Bitcoin;
- Metaplanet launches VC and asset management subsidiaries; the firm plans to deploy 4b yen into local Bitcoin infrastructure and stablecoin projects;
- Ripple launches $750m share buyback program; the company initiates a major capital return to shareholders alongside its global expansion;
- Eightco shares jump on $125m funding commitment; stock rose 25% following backing from Bitmine and ARK Invest for its digital asset treasury;
- OP Labs cuts 20% of staff; the Ethereum layer-2 developer reduced its workforce to narrow its focus on core Optimism development;
- XRP leverage collapses 78% while ETF assets hold steady; despite speculative washouts, spot XRP ETFs have accumulated over $1.4b since launching in November;
- Justice Department probes Binance over Iran-linked flows; investigators are reportedly examining $1.7b in suspect transfers linked to sanctioned entities;
- Kalshi launches prediction markets in Brazil; distribution partner XP International brings derivative contracts to its 4.7m active clients;
- South Korea targets Bithumb over AML failures; the No. 2 exchange received a preliminary six-month partial suspension notice;
- Lido rolls out first stablecoin vault; the new product consolidates offerings into EarnUSD, supporting USDT and USDC;
- Grayscale debuts Avalanche staking ETF; the GAVA ticker has launched on the Nasdaq to provide AVAX exposure and staking rewards;
- South Korea plans AI crypto tax system; the National Tax Service issued a ₩3b budget for a platform to track virtual asset profits by 2027;
- Prosecutors push for Roman Storm retrial; authorities seek to retry the Tornado Cash co-founder on money laundering and sanctions counts in October 2026;
- Vitalik Buterin proposes digital bulletin board model; the co-founder suggests treating Ethereum as reliable shared memory for the digital world;
- Ark Invest analyses Bitcoin quantum risk; research indicates that 35% of the total BTC supply theoretically faces future quantum exposure;
2) BTC and ETH ETF flows
| Metric | BTC | ETH |
|---|---|---|
| Net inflow | $115,170,994.75 | $57,012,016.45 |
| Value traded | $2,734,624,090.92 | $660,718,564 |
| Net assets | $90,886,036,977.99 | $11,849,529,237.21 |
| Cumulative net inflow | $55,901,769,036.70 | $11,646,795,621.87 |
3) X trending news
- Russia oil revenue surge; higher energy prices amid the Iran war are reportedly generating an extra $150m per day for the Russian government.
- Stock market wipeout; approximately $820b was erased from US stock markets within the first two hours of trading on Thursday.
- Historic oil disruption; world output is expected to fall by 8m barrels per day in March, representing a 7% decline from February levels.
- Mastercard crypto connection; a new program connects blockchain payments with global banking through partnerships with 85+ firms including Ripple and Binance.
- Elon Musk X Money; early public access to the platform’s financial services is scheduled to launch next month.
- US oil reserve release; the US and its allies announced a release of 572m barrels of crude oil reserves to offset Hormuz disruptions.
- JPMorgan war warning; analysts suggest a ground war to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could transform into a multiyear conflict.
- US gasoline prices; national average gas prices have risen to $3.60 for the first time since mid-2024.