Executive brief

The cryptocurrency market is currently navigating a period of significant geopolitical tension as the Middle East conflict enters its third week. Despite a 3.5% intraday drop following US military strikes on Iran’s oil infrastructure at Kharg Island, Bitcoin has shown relative resilience by holding above $71,000. This price action follows a stronger recovery compared to gold and stocks since the onset of the conflict, although analysts remain cautious about a looming sell wall at the $74,000 level. Market participants are increasingly focused on the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for 17 March, as sticky core PCE inflation of 3.1% and weakening GDP growth of 0.7% complicate the outlook for rate cuts.

Institutional infrastructure continues to expand as BlackRock launched its staked Ethereum ETF, recording over $15.5m in trading volume on its first day. This move signifies a shift in how Ethereum is marketed to mainstream investors, transitioning from a speculative technology bet to a yield-bearing portfolio asset. Concurrently, Circle’s USDC volumes have overtaken Tether’s USDT for the first time since 2019, suggesting that regulated stablecoins are gaining ground in institutional payments and settlement. However, the industry faces mounting scrutiny as US sanctions targeted North Korean IT workers involved in a $800m crypto laundering scheme, reinforcing the regulatory pressure on digital asset rails.

Significant risks persist within the decentralised finance sector, highlighted by a whale losing nearly $50m in a single DeFi swap due to a slippage error on a mobile device. Additionally, the rise of violent “wrench attacks” targeting crypto holders in France has forced a rethink of personal security and self-custody practices. While positive ETF flows of $583m provide a liquidity floor, the combination of energy shocks and potential punitive bank capital rules for Bitcoin remains a primary risk for long-term integration.

1) Top 20 news headlines

2) BTC and ETH ETF flows

Metric BTC ETH
Net inflow $180.3m $26.7m
Value traded $4.9b $1.3b
Net assets $91.8b $12.3b
Cumulative net inflow $56.1b $11.8b

3) X trending news

  • Trump strikes Kharg Island; US Central Command targeted Iran’s crown jewel oil island in the most powerful bombing raids in regional history.
  • $2 trillion stock wipeout; total market capitalisation lost from US equities in the past month as war risks escalate.
  • S&P 500 liquidity collapse; futures liquidity fell to just $5.1m, a level that signals extreme market stress according to Goldman Sachs.
  • Oman peace deal rejected; President Trump declined a mediation attempt to open communication with Iran as the war enters its third week.
  • Weekly ETF volume record; trading in US-listed ETFs jumped to $2.2 trillion last week, marking the second-highest volume in history.
  • Iran oil yuan proposal; Iran suggests it may allow oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz if trades are settled in Chinese Yuan.
  • Labour force cracks; a record 104.3 million Americans are now outside the labour force, exceeding the 2020 pandemic peak.
  • Druckenmiller stablecoin forecast; billionaire investor predicts global payments will run on crypto stablecoins within 15 years due to efficiency.