Executive brief
The first Federal Open Market Committee meeting under Chairman Kevin Warsh has concluded with a rate hold at 3.50% to 3.75%, though the tone shifted toward a hawkish stance. Warsh’s announcement that the Fed has officially dropped forward guidance, combined with a dot plot suggesting potential hikes later in 2026, has introduced new volatility into risk assets. Markets are now recalibrating for a “higher for longer” environment as the Fed signals inflation remains elevated relative to its 2% target. The move marks a departure from the communication style of previous leadership, with the central bank now seeing PCE inflation not returning to its target until 2028.
Simultaneously, a preliminary US-Iran memorandum of understanding aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz has provided temporary geopolitical relief. While oil prices fell below $80 per barrel, Bitcoin has struggled to hold gains, trading near $65,000 as the initial relief bid met the reality of tighter US monetary policy. Analysts suggest that while energy-driven inflation risks may be easing, restored liquidity support for digital assets must now come from a softening Fed or consistent institutional inflows. The 60-day window established to negotiate a final deal will remain a key directional driver for macro sentiment through the third quarter.
In corporate developments, BlackRock has launched BITA, a covered-call Bitcoin ETF, signaling a shift from simple spot exposure to complex income-generating products. Meanwhile, Kraken is bringing CFTC-regulated perpetual futures to US professional traders across 9 different assets. However, risks remain evident as Botanix Labs announced it will wind down its Bitcoin Layer 2 due to weak native demand, while the persistent discount on Strategy’s STRC preferred stock, currently trading at $91.79, presents a cautionary signal for Bitcoin-linked yield products. Opportunity may lie in the accelerating tokenisation trend as Moody’s begins embedding credit scores directly into Solana-based securities.
1) Top 20 news headlines
- Fed holds rates steady in first decision under Chairman Kevin Warsh; rates remain at 3.50% to 3.75% following a unanimous 12-0 vote;
- US-Iran 14-point MOU released; the agreement triggers a 60-day window for a final deal and $300b reconstruction framework;
- SpaceX market cap nearly double that of Bitcoin; the company is now the world’s sixth-largest firm with a $2.6 trillion valuation;
- BlackRock launches BITA covered-call Bitcoin ETF; the fund uses an options strategy to generate monthly premium income;
- Kraken launches CFTC-regulated perpetual futures; the service is available to US pro traders for 9 assets including BTC and ETH;
- Botanix Labs winds down Bitcoin Layer 2; users must withdraw assets before the July 1 deadline as the firm prepares to dissolve;
- BitGo announces $50m share buyback; the move follows a 65% decline in share value since the company’s IPO;
- Moody’s rolls out credit ratings on Solana; credit scores are being embedded into blockchain-based securities for institutional use;
- Illinois imposes 0.2% tax on digital assets; the new tax applies to any business activity involving digital assets in the state;
- Bitcoin June downturn leaves $8.6b in options underwater; only 20% of open interest for June 26 is currently in the money;
- Strategy’s STRC preferred stock sinks to $91.79; the $10.5b yield product is trading well below its $100 par value target;
- Bybit added to Singapore MAS Investor Alert List; the exchange was flagged for potentially being perceived as licensed or regulated;
- Trace Finance raises $32m for stablecoin settlement; the funding will support cross-border expansion connecting blockchain to banks;
- SpaceX acquires AI firm Cursor for $60b; the Elon Musk-led company used elevated equity value to purchase the AI coding startup;
- Standard Chartered sets $100 target for UNI; the bank forecasts institutional tokenisation could drive DeFi assets to $2 trillion by 2030;
- Crypto PAC-backed Barry Moore wins GOP primary; the candidate drew over $12m in industry funding for the Alabama Senate race;
- Bitcoin miners face $50b funding shortfall for AI pivot; VanEck warns of execution risk as companies chase high-performance computing revenue;
- World Cup favorites lose millions on Polymarket; the platform has recorded $2.46b in volume with soccer draws wiping out whale positions;
- Senators urge state participation in GENIUS Act; a bipartisan group insists the Treasury Department include states in stablecoin supervision;
- US Congress reaches deal to ban CBDC until 2030; the ban is part of the 21st Century Road to Housing Act;
2) BTC and ETH ETF flows
| Metric | BTC | ETH |
|---|---|---|
| Net inflow | $10,064,258.78 | $9,587,634.18 |
| Value traded | $1,262,571,615.58 | $404,210,088.90 |
| Net assets | $82,062,395,461.13 | $9,888,659,181.84 |
| Cumulative net inflow | $53,570,469,131.20 | $11,218,181,290.94 |
3) X trending news
- Fed drops forward guidance; Chairman Warsh states that forward guidance is no longer the business of the central bank.
- Rate hike odds surge; the probability of the Fed hiking interest rates in 2026 has increased to 49% following the dot plot update.
- SpaceX value hits $2.95 trillion; the company has surpassed Microsoft to become the fourth largest public company in the world.
- Musk worth more than Bitcoin; Elon Musk’s net worth has risen to $1.4 trillion, exceeding Bitcoin’s $1.3 trillion market cap.
- Tokenised stock trading record; over $4.3b worth of tokenised stocks were traded onchain in the last 30 days, a 140% year to date increase.
- Fed sees PCE target delayed; the central bank now forecasts inflation will not return to its 2% target until 2028.
- Coinbase tokenised stocks; the exchange has announced it will launch tokenised stock trading to expand its financial product range.
- FTX stake in Cursor; the exchange sold its 5% stake for $200k in 2023, which would now be worth $3b following the SpaceX acquisition.