Executive brief

Bitcoin has faced a volatile session, slipping below $77,000 after geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran escalated. President Donald Trump issued a warning that the “clock is ticking” for the nation, sending oil prices above $107 per barrel and triggering broad risk-off sentiment. Despite this, Strategy provided a major liquidity cushion by purchasing 24,869 BTC for approximately $2.01b. This institutional support arrives as Japanese investors sold nearly $29.6b in US Treasuries, putting upward pressure on yields and making risk-free assets more attractive. The market is currently driven by this macro tightening and the anticipation of Federal Reserve leadership changes as Jerome Powell departs.

Regulatory progress remains a primary catalyst, with estimates suggesting a 75% chance that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law by early August. This legislation would provide a federal framework for digital assets, potentially moving them from speculative instruments to normalised financial tools. Simultaneously, Minnesota has legalised crypto custody for local banks, and Galaxy secured a New York BitLicense, indicating a domestic push for regulated institutional access. Investors are also watching the Solana ecosystem, which is seeing billions in inflows from big banks for tokenised funds.

Opportunities are emerging in the AI and infrastructure sectors. HIVE Digital acquired a $58m plot for AI facilities, while investors like Leopold Aschenbrenner are betting on Bitcoin miners to power the next phase of the AI boom. However, risks remain evident in physical infrastructure and security; Bitcoin Depot filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, taking 9,000 ATMs offline, and the Verus-Ethereum bridge suffered an $11.58m exploit. Furthermore, Citi warned that accelerating quantum computing breakthroughs pose an outsized threat to Bitcoin infrastructure.

1) Top 20 news headlines

2) BTC and ETH ETF flows

Metric BTC ETH
Net inflow -$290,418,644.21 -$65,649,749.50
Value traded $2,410,469,800.77 $557,662,375.00
Net assets $104,288,941,437.41 $12,929,215,391.19
Cumulative net inflow $58,340,008,850.57 $11,831,496,634.08

3) X trending news

  • Situation Room convened; President Trump to discuss military options in Iran on Tuesday after peace proposals were deemed insufficient.
  • Bond market yield surge; the US 10-year Note Yield hit 4.63%, the highest level since February 2025.
  • CPI inflation update; US inflation is on track to exceed 5.0% this year, with recent readings as high as 0.9% month-on-month.
  • Leveraged ETF appetite; the ratio of levered long to short ETF volume reached 3.3, a historic pace of risk appetite.
  • Saylor buys more BTC; Strategy acquired 24,869 Bitcoin worth $2 billion at current market prices.
  • New Fed Chair; Kevin Warsh is set to be sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair this Friday, replacing Jerome Powell.
  • Meta employee layoffs; the social media giant is set to lay off approximately 8,000 staff, or 10% of its workforce.
  • BlackRock SpaceX interest; the world’s largest asset manager is considering a $5b to $10b investment in the SpaceX IPO.
  • Semiconductor dominance; chip stocks now account for 18% of the S&P 500 market cap, contributing over half of the index’s 8% year-to-date gain.
  • US-China trade deals; new agreements include China purchasing 200 Boeing aircraft and $17b per year in US agricultural products.