Executive brief

The digital asset market is navigating a complex intersection of regulatory momentum and macroeconomic volatility as Bitcoin fell below the $78,000 level. While the Clarity Act advanced through the Senate Banking Committee, providing a potential boon for domestic innovation, the optimism was tempered by a liquidation cascade that flushed $500m in leveraged longs. Rising US Treasury yields, with the 10-year reaching 4.599%, and persistent inflation fears have increased the opportunity cost for non-yielding assets. This macro pressure serves as a significant directional cue, suggesting that Bitcoin may test support levels near $75,000 if ETF outflows persist. This is further complicated by the news that Jerome Powell has officially stepped down after 8 years as Federal Reserve Chair, introducing a new era of central bank uncertainty.

The institutional landscape remains active despite the price correction. Intesa Sanpaolo, Italy’s largest bank, more than doubled its crypto holdings to $235m in the first quarter, while SBI and Rakuten in Japan are moving to launch crypto investment trusts. However, security risks continue to weigh on the DeFi sector following a THORChain exploit that drained approximately $10.7m. This follows the recent KelpDAO hack, which has prompted a migration of assets toward more secure infrastructure like Chainlink’s bridge.

Strategic liability management is also in focus as MicroStrategy announced plans to repurchase $1.5b of convertible bonds, identifying Bitcoin sales as a potential funding option. This introduces a specific risk cue, as market perception of such sales could trigger preemptive price movements. Furthermore, the competitive battle between decentralised platforms like Hyperliquid and traditional incumbents CME and ICE over 24/7 markets highlights the growing tension as Wall Street adopts crypto-style infrastructure. Investors should watch for the SpaceX IPO in June, which is expected to seek a $75b valuation, as it may serve as a broader indicator of market liquidity.

1) Top 20 news headlines

2) BTC and ETH ETF flows

Metric BTC ETH
Net inflow -$290.4m -$65.6m
Value traded $2.4b $557.7m
Net assets $104.3b $12.9b
Cumulative net inflow $58.3b $11.8b

3) X trending news

  • Situation Room meeting; President Trump is expected to convene his national security team on Tuesday to discuss Iran options.
  • Treasury dumping; Japanese investors sold $29.6b in US Treasuries in the first quarter, the largest sale since 2022.
  • SpaceX IPO valuation; the company is now expected to raise as much as $75b in its market debut next month.
  • Powell steps down; Jerome Powell has officially finished his 8 year tenure as Chair of the Federal Reserve.
  • Hormuz toll system; Iran has prepared a mechanism to manage traffic and impose fees in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Ebola emergency; the World Health Organization has declared the current Ebola outbreak a global health emergency.
  • US budget surplus; the Treasury budget surplus fell $43b year-over-year in April to $215b.