Executive brief
The digital asset market is navigating a complex intersection of intensifying geopolitical conflict and significant institutional infrastructure milestones. While Bitcoin has shown resilience near the $70,800 level, the broader macro environment is tightening as the Iran war enters its fourth week. Oil prices remain a primary driver of volatility, with Brent crude reaching intraday highs of $119.13, creating persistent inflation fears that are forcing central banks to reconsider their easing paths. Market participants are increasingly focused on the disappearance of the Federal Reserve’s liquidity cushion, as the domestic overnight reverse repo facility has dwindled to just $0.637 billion. This exhaustion of passive liquidity buffers means that future economic shocks may result in more direct pressure on bank reserves and risk assets.
Despite these headwinds, Wall Street continues to deepen its integration with blockchain technology. The SEC approval for Nasdaq to move stocks onchain signals a structural shift in how traditional equities will be settled. Further institutional momentum is evident as Morgan Stanley filed for its own Bitcoin ETF under the ticker MSBT, seeded with $1 million. In the regulatory sphere, the Clarity Act appears to be gaining momentum in the Senate, with lawmakers reportedly 99% of the way to resolving disputes regarding stablecoin yields. However, a significant risk cue has emerged from the FDIC, as Chair Travis Hill suggested that payment stablecoins may not qualify for pass-through insurance, potentially favouring bank-issued tokenised deposits. For investors, the immediate opportunity lies in the ongoing tokenisation of real-world assets, exemplified by Amundi’s launch of a $100m tokenised fund, even as derivatives markets signal caution with negative funding rates persisting for 18 consecutive days.
1) Top 20 news headlines
- Morgan Stanley files for MSBT Bitcoin ETF; the fund will launch on NYSE Arca with $1 million in initial seed capital.
- Nasdaq wins SEC approval for onchain stock settlement; the new structure allows blockchain benefits for equities while maintaining traditional intermediaries.
- Kalshi valuation hits $22b in $1b funding round; the prediction market firm secured new investment despite ongoing legal battles in Nevada.
- Coinbase launches 24/7 stock perpetual futures; non-U.S. traders can now access up to 10-times leverage on major tech stocks.
- Super Micro co-founder arrested in $2.5b smuggling case; authorities allege the executive funnelled AI servers to China via shell companies.
- Amundi tokenises $100m fund on Ethereum and Stellar; Europe’s largest asset manager is targeting institutional cash management with its new SAFO fund.
- SEC and CFTC classify DOGE and SHIB as commodities; the joint guidance places meme coins in the same regulatory category as Bitcoin and Ethereum.
- Gauntlet sees $380m exit following OKX campaign; the risk management firm noted that deposits have returned to levels seen before the incentive push.
- Hyperliquid oil trading surges amid Iran war; JPMorgan notes that decentralized venues are capturing 24/7 commodity demand during geopolitical shocks.
- Dormant Bitcoin whale moves $147m stash; the address had been inactive since 2012 when the 2,100 BTC were worth just $13,700.
- Gemini hit with class-action lawsuit; investors allege the exchange made an abrupt pivot to prediction markets following its IPO.
- Ledger taps former Circle exec for IPO push; the wallet maker appointed a new CFO as it explores a U.S. listing valued at over $4b.
- Crypto Clarity Act nears Senate hearing; lawmakers are reportedly negotiating trades with banks to secure support for the market structure bill.
- South Korea proposes abolishing 22% crypto tax; the bill cites new U.S. regulatory guidance as a reason to repeal the upcoming income tax.
- World Gold Council releases tokenised gold framework; the group aims to standardise the connection between physical gold and digital issuance systems.
- BitFuFu shifts focus to cloud mining; the firm saw revenue from self-mining operations drop by 60% in 2025 during the transition.
- Cantor Fitzgerald pitching FalconX IPO; the investment bank is among those vying to lead the crypto trading firm’s public debut.
- Solana DApp revenue hits 18-month low; weakening onchain activity suggests the SOL price may face a retest of the $80 level.
- Kentucky bill sparks self-custody fears; a new hardware wallet clause in state legislation is being criticised as a potential backdoor for regulators.
- Playnance G Coin lists on MEXC; more than 1b tokens have been staked following the ecosystem’s token generation event.
2) BTC and ETH ETF flows
| Metric | BTC | ETH |
|---|---|---|
| Net inflow | -$90.2m | -$136.4m |
| Value traded | $3.2b | $1.0b |
| Net assets | $90.8b | $12.5b |
| Cumulative net inflow | $56.3b | $11.8b |
3) X trending news
- U.S. ground force preparations; reports indicate the Trump Administration is preparing for a potential ground invasion of Iran.
- Inflation expectations surge; 12-month U.S. inflation expectations have jumped to 5.2%, the highest level since March 2023.
- Super Micro crash; shares of SMCI dropped 27% following charges against its co-founder for smuggling $2.5b in AI chips.
- Crypto legislation odds; markets are pricing in a 63% chance of the crypto market structure bill becoming law this year.
- Russell 2000 correction; the small-cap index has officially entered a technical correction, down 10% from its record high.
- Georgia fuel tax suspension; Georgia has become the first state to suspend fuel taxes as war-driven gas prices continue to rise.
- Job market cooling; average job openings now receive 242 applications, representing a 300% increase compared to 2017.