Executive brief

Bitcoin has reclaimed the $65,000 level following a period of intense geopolitical tension, buoyed by signs of diplomatic progress between the US and Iran. The de-escalation has seen oil prices retreat, removing a significant inflation headwind that had previously weighed on risk assets. However, the macro outlook remains cautious as US dollar strength remains at its highest level since May 2025, and the 10-year Treasury yield persists near 4.5%. This creates a “dollar-rate wall” that may limit the sustainability of the current relief rally as liquidity conditions remain tight.

Institutional momentum continues to build despite the range-bound price action. Morgan Stanley has significantly undercut rivals by revealing 0.14% fees for its upcoming Ethereum and Solana ETFs, while Charles Schwab is partnering with Cboe to integrate prediction markets into traditional brokerage screens. These moves signal a deepening of infrastructure even as security vulnerabilities remain a critical risk. Two major exploits, including a $1.7 million drain of the Taiko bridge and a $7.5 million loss for a prominent Ethereum MEV bot, highlight the ongoing fragility of decentralized infrastructure and the complexity of automated trading protocols.

A key driver for the week will be the upcoming PCE inflation data, as investors look for cues on Federal Reserve policy following Bank of America forecasts of three rate hikes in 2026. While some analysts suggest Bitcoin may have found a bottom near $63,000, derivatives markets show lingering skepticism. A major opportunity lies in the burgeoning real-world asset (RWA) space, exemplified by UBS tokenized funds now serving as exchange margin, though the primary risk remains a potential liquidity sweep if Bitcoin fails to hold $64,000 support levels.

1) Top 20 news headlines

2) BTC and ETH ETF flows

Metric BTC ETH
Net inflow -$90,656,608.72 -$12,767,423
Value traded $2,399,913,867.21 $436,394,362.1
Net assets $78,324,842,891.72 $9,303,645,007.96
Cumulative net inflow $53,397,648,857.62 $11,176,041,176.79

3) X trending news

  • US issues Iran oil license; production and sale of Iranian-origin oil products is authorised through 21 August.
  • Strategy buys $35 million in Bitcoin; the company confirmed the purchase of 520 BTC as part of its ongoing treasury strategy.
  • Bank of America forecasts rate hikes; the bank now expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates 3 times in 2026.
  • SpaceX market cap erases $250 billion; shares of the company fell 10.5% in a single session.
  • Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan dies; the influential economist passed away at the age of 100.
  • US Economic Surprise Index hits 63.2; the index measuring data relative to estimates reached its highest level since August 2023.
  • Trump announces Iran weapons inspections; Iran will reportedly agree to major inspections to ensure nuclear honesty.
  • Semiconductor volatility matches 2009 levels; the index recorded 9 single-day gains of over 5% within the last 60 trading days.