Executive brief

Bitcoin has faced significant headwind as the US 10-year Treasury yield surged to its highest level since 2007, reaching a peak of 5.15%. This macro pressure drove the asset briefly below the $84,000 mark as traders reprice the likelihood of further interest rate hikes. While the short term is dominated by rising real yields and a stronger dollar, institutional infrastructure continues to expand rapidly. For example, the UK largest banks completed the world first interbank transactions using tokenized deposits, moving bank-issued digital cash beyond single institutions for use in remortgages and marketplace payments.

The Trump administration is reportedly weighing a global stablecoin plan to promote dollar-backed tokens worldwide to cement the greenback as a global reserve status. This suggests a significant directional driver toward federal support for digital dollar infrastructure. There is a clear opportunity in the maturation of real-world asset platforms, as seen with Ondo and BlackRock launching onchain portfolio tokens based on traditional investment strategies. However, the risk of higher-for-longer interest rates remains the primary driver of volatility, with market expectations for an October interest rate hike rising to a 64% probability. As Bitcoin tests support at the $84,000 level, the resilience of onchain economic activity, which held near $9.4 trillion despite market drawdowns, indicates a maturing market that is increasingly decoupling from simple price speculation.

1) Top 20 news headlines

2) BTC and ETH ETF flows

Metric BTC ETH
Net inflow $347.0m $104.6m
Value traded $3.1b $1.2b
Net assets $108.7b $17.5b
Cumulative net inflow $57.2b $13.8b

3) X trending news

  • US 10Y Note Yield hits 5.15%; the bond market is trading at its highest level since June 2007 with a 70 basis point rise this month.
  • October rate hike expectations hit 64%; surging yields have led markets to price in a high probability of a 25 basis point hike in October.
  • China trade surplus reaches $806 billion YTD; a historic boom in high-tech and AI-related exports is powering record trade surpluses for China.
  • Trump prepares 90-day ban on diesel exports; the administration is considering a temporary halt to shipments to address diesel prices that rose 100% in nine months.
  • US and Iran explore phased path out of war; reports suggest a potential deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the economic blockade.
  • BlackRock and Ondo partner for tokenized portfolios; the partnership aims to launch onchain investment products using BlackRock developed strategies.
  • Federal Reserve proposes GENIUS Act framework; a new regulatory structure is being introduced for stablecoin issuers under the proposed legislation.