Executive brief
The digital asset market has entered a period of heightened volatility as geopolitical developments and shifts in US monetary leadership converge. Bitcoin recently reclaimed the $77,000 level after President Trump announced a largely negotiated peace agreement with Iran, which includes provisions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, the price action remains fragile, as earlier sessions saw Bitcoin tank to $74,300. This downward pressure was primarily driven by spot Bitcoin ETFs bleeding $2.26 billion over the last fortnight, marking one of the most significant periods of institutional withdrawal since January. While the Iran news provided a temporary floor, the market continues to weigh the risks of persistent inflation and a hawkish shift at the Federal Reserve.
In a historic move for US macro policy, Kevin Warsh has been sworn in as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, replacing Jerome Powell. While Warsh is viewed by many as pro-crypto, his immediate challenge is a divided committee and a bond market that is now pricing in a 58% probability of a rate hike by year end. This shift has turned the “rate cut trade” into a “hike risk problem” for speculative assets. Despite this, some institutional players are using the drawdown as an accumulation phase. BitMine recently purchased 60,000 ETH worth approximately $126m, bringing its total holdings to 5.2m ETH as it prepares for potential inclusion in the Russell 1000 Index.
Regulatory activity remains a key driver for market structure. The SEC has approved Nasdaq to list Bitcoin index options, a move that could provide institutional investors with sophisticated tools to hedge exposure. Simultaneously, the industry is facing renewed scrutiny as Congress launched an investigation into Polymarket and Kalshi over concerns that government employees might be using non-public information to trade on prediction markets. This mix of institutional expansion and regulatory discipline creates a complex environment for investors: the primary opportunity lies in the maturation of market infrastructure through index inclusions and new derivatives, while the immediate risk remains a liquidity squeeze driven by high Treasury yields and hawkish central bank rhetoric.
1) Top 20 news headlines
- Bitcoin heads higher as President Trump announces Iran peace agreement; Bitcoin reclaimed $77,000 following the announcement of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- Bitcoin tanks to $74,300 as spot ETFs bleed $2.26 billion in two weeks; US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw their largest withdrawals in three months with a $2.26b outflow.
- Kevin Warsh sworn in as Fed chair as traders forecast rate hikes; Markets now price in a 58% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike by the end of 2026.
- SEC approves Nasdaq to list Bitcoin index options on the exchange; The SEC approved cash-settled European-style options to trade under the ticker QBTC.
- FTX law firm Fenwick & West to pay $54m to victims in settlement; The law firm settled claims regarding its role in the collapse of the FTX exchange for $54m.
- Congress hits Polymarket and Kalshi with a massive insider trading probe; Rep. James Comer is demanding records to investigate if government employees made profits on secret info.
- BitMine buys 60,000 ETH worth $126m during market selloff; BitMine increased its holdings to 5.2m ETH as it targets inclusion in the Russell 1000 Index.
- Binance denies report alleging $850m in Iran-linked transactions; CEO Richard Teng denied claims that $850m in transactions flowed through the exchange to the IRGC.
- Tether treasury holdings surpass $141 billion; Tether is now the 17th largest holder of US government debt globally with over $141b in exposure.
- Bank of England outlines 24/7 settlement plan; The central bank launched a consultation to extend RTGS and CHAPS operating hours toward near 24/7 availability.
- Bitcoin Pizza Day marked 16 years since first transaction; The 10,000 BTC used to buy two pizzas in 2010 is now valued at approximately $775m.
- Hyperliquid (HYPE) surges to record high above $60; HYPE reached a market cap of $15b as total value locked on the platform crossed $5b.
- FDIC proposes new AML rules for stablecoin issuers; The new framework mandates stablecoin issuers to comply with BSA and FinCEN reporting requirements.
- Crypto rails become default payment layer for AI agents; Stablecoins are increasingly used for AI agent micropayments as traditional card rails struggle.
- Robinhood Crypto COO Tanya Denisova leaves company; The executive is departing after five years as the firm navigates a digital asset revenue slowdown.
- Brazilian gang raid reveals $6,400 monthly power theft for mining; Police found a 30-computer mining farm in Rio using stolen power from local utility poles.
- StablR stablecoins depeg amid $2.8m exploit; A private key compromise led to the depegging of euro and USD stablecoins following a $2.8m theft.
- NEAR protocol leads AI token rally with 50% surge; NEAR price gained 50% in a week, fuelled by network upgrades and optimism in the AI sector.
- SEC Commissioner Peirce counters synthetic token views; Commissioner Peirce clarified that upcoming rules are not intended to foster synthetic digital assets.
- Bitcoin lending market forecast to reach $1 trillion; A report from Ledn suggests the bitcoin-backed lending market could grow to $1t within a decade.
2) BTC and ETH ETF flows
| Metric | BTC | ETH |
|---|---|---|
| Net inflow | -$105,185,692.95 | -$6,673,641.30 |
| Value traded | $1,768,344,654.18 | $502,443,750.60 |
| Net assets | $98,865,585,921.02 | $11,838,988,412.96 |
| Cumulative net inflow | $57,083,847,075.58 | $11,615,503,065.22 |
3) X trending news
- Kevin Warsh sworn in as Fed Chair; Pro-crypto official Kevin Warsh officially replaces Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chairman.
- Bitcoin reclaims $77,000; Prices surged after President Trump announced that a deal with Iran was being finalised.
- Mark Cuban sells most of his Bitcoin; The billionaire stated that Bitcoin has lost the plot after selling the majority of his holdings.
- $400 million in longs liquidated; Massive market flush saw $400,000,000 in long positions wiped out in just 10 minutes.
- Expected terms of Iran peace deal; Proposed deal includes a 60-day ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz for oil sales.
- SEC approves Bitcoin index options; Nasdaq is cleared to trade European-style Bitcoin index options under the QBTC ticker.
- Record technology fund inflows; Global tech funds saw $9.0b in weekly inflows, the largest since October 2025.