Executive brief

Geopolitical developments remain the primary driver for digital assets as Bitcoin stabilises near $67,400 following comments from President Donald Trump regarding serious discussions with a new regime in Iran. While the prospect of de-escalation provided a temporary boost, the broader macro environment is constrained by surging energy costs, with Brent crude holding above $111. This energy shock has direct implications for the Federal Reserve; Chair Jerome Powell recently cautioned that US national debt is growing faster than the economy, while other officials suggest rate cuts may be off the table for 2026. This tighter liquidity environment is reflected in the Bitcoin ETF market, which saw weekly outflows of $296m, and in the behavior of major holders like Strategy, which has paused its weekly Bitcoin purchases for the first time in 13 weeks.

Simultaneously, the industry faces new regulatory headwinds with the introduction of the Digital Asset PARITY Act, which seeks to close the wash-sale tax loophole for crypto traders. Despite these pressures, institutional integration continues to mature: Jack Dorsey’s Square has auto-enabled Bitcoin payments for millions of businesses, and Bitmine recently executed a massive purchase of 71,179 ETH. For investors, a key risk cue lies in the nearly 47% of circulating Bitcoin currently trading at a loss, creating potential for further capitulation if the 200-week moving average at $59,000 is breached. Conversely, the transition of Bitcoin miners toward AI infrastructure and the launch of Aave v4 represent directional cues toward a more diversified and robust DeFi ecosystem.

1) Top 20 news headlines

2) BTC and ETH ETF flows

Metric BTC ETH
Net inflow -$225,476,321.98 -$48,544,487.29
Value traded $3,385,520,007.93 $1,161,434,082
Net assets $84,772,057,250.48 $11,322,466,827.93
Cumulative net inflow $55,934,963,008.82 $11,522,821,489.98

3) X trending news

  • Trump negotiating with Ghalibaf; the US expects to know in about 1 week if a deal can be reached with the Iranian parliamentary speaker.
  • Rubio issues war timeline; Senator Rubio stated objectives in Iran will be achieved in weeks, not months.
  • Powell warns on US debt; the Fed Chair stated national debt is growing substantially faster than the economy and is unsustainable.
  • Energy stocks record win streak; the US Energy Select Sector Index has gained for 14 consecutive weeks, a record fueled by the Iran war.
  • Hedge funds move to sidelines; net leverage dropped 3.1 points last week, marking one of the largest reductions in 5 years.
  • S&P 500 volatile reversal; futures added $900b in market cap after reversing a 1% decline following peace talk headlines.
  • Japan market falls 5%; Asia’s energy crisis continues to intensify, putting heavy pressure on Japanese equities.