This Week’s Recap

  • Top Democrat pressures Treasury to halt Trump’s strategic Bitcoin reserve plan: Representative Gerald Connolly, a top Democrat, has called on the Treasury Department to immediately stop former President Trump’s proposed strategic Bitcoin reserve, citing significant concerns around transparency, potential conflicts of interest, and the administration’s failure to seek congressional approval before pursuing such a major financial strategy.
  • Bitcoin poised to reclaim $90,000, according to derivatives metrics: Bitcoin is demonstrating bullish momentum through strong derivatives market indicators, with analysts highlighting increasing open interest and futures premiums as key signals. These metrics suggest that trader sentiment is becoming increasingly optimistic, positioning Bitcoin to reclaim the $90,000 level soon.
  • Trade war puts Bitcoin’s status as safe-haven asset in doubt: Recent global trade tensions, particularly those initiated by the United States, have led to economic stress, challenging Bitcoin’s reputation as a safe-haven asset. Traditionally, safe-haven assets like gold maintain or increase in value during such periods; however, Bitcoin has experienced declines alongside equity markets, prompting analysts to question its effectiveness as a protective asset in times of economic uncertainty.
  • US Bitcoin ETFs erase year-to-date gains as inflows drop: U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recently seen a reversal of their year-to-date gains, with cumulative inflows dropping to levels not observed since January 2. This downturn is attributed to significant outflows in February and March, reflecting waning investor demand and broader market volatility affecting Bitcoin’s performance.
  • Bitcoin gets $126K June target as data predicts bull market comeback: Network economist Timothy Peterson forecasts that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high of $126,000 by June 1, 2025, based on historical seasonal trends and current market conditions. He notes that Bitcoin’s annual performance typically peaks in April and October, and the recent 30% price correction aligns with standard bull market behavior, suggesting a potential rebound in the coming months.
  • SEC drops appeal against Ripple, CEO Garlinghouse hails victory as XRP jumps 10%: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has withdrawn its appeal in the lawsuit against Ripple Labs, concluding a legal battle that began in December 2020. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse celebrated the decision as a “resounding victory,” leading to a 10% surge in XRP’s price to approximately $2.56. This outcome not only removes regulatory uncertainty for Ripple but also sets a significant precedent for the broader cryptocurrency industry.
  • REX launches Bitcoin Corporate Treasury Convertible Bond ETF: REX Shares has introduced the REX Bitcoin Corporate Treasury Convertible Bond ETF (BMAX), offering investors exposure to convertible bonds issued by companies integrating Bitcoin into their corporate treasuries. This ETF simplifies access to such bonds, which were previously challenging for individual investors to reach, by focusing on issuers like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), a leader in Bitcoin-backed convertible debt.
  • Solana proposal to cut inflation rate by up to 80% fails to pass: A recent governance proposal, SIMD-228, aimed at dynamically adjusting Solana’s inflation rate based on staking participation, was rejected by stakeholders. Despite a high voter turnout, with approximately 74% of the staked supply participating, the proposal received only 43.6% approval, falling short of the required 66.67% supermajority. This outcome is viewed as a testament to the robustness of Solana’s governance process, reflecting a wide range of opinions and interests within the community.
  • VanEck files for AVAX ETF: Global investment manager VanEck has submitted an application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that would track the performance of Avalanche’s native token, AVAX. This proposed ETF aims to provide investors with direct exposure to AVAX, reflecting the growing institutional interest in diversified cryptocurrency investment products.
  • Rising $219B stablecoin supply signals mid-bull cycle: The cumulative supply of stablecoins has surpassed $219 billion, indicating that the cryptocurrency market is likely during a bull cycle rather than approaching its peak. Historically, peaks in stablecoin supply have aligned with market tops; for instance, the supply reached $187 billion in April 2022, just before a bear market ensued. The current increase suggests ongoing investor interest and potential for further market growth.
  • House Bill to build Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve has one major difference: Representative Byron Donalds introduced the Reserve and Stockpile Act in the House, aiming to codify President Trump’s executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile. Unlike Senator Cynthia Lummis’s Bitcoin Act, which proposes the government purchase approximately $80 billion worth of Bitcoin, Donalds’s bill does not specify a set amount for acquisition. Instead, it focuses on utilizing Bitcoin obtained through criminal or civil asset forfeitures to seed the reserve, allowing for budget-neutral strategies to acquire additional Bitcoin without imposing new costs on taxpayers.
  • XRP may flip Ethereum first amid 5-year high: XRP has reached a five-year high against Ethereum (ETH), with the XRP/ETH pair touching 0.00128 ETH on March 15, 2025. This surge represents a 925% rebound from its all-time low in June 2024. Analysts note that breaking the 0.0012 ETH resistance level has historically led to significant rallies for XRP, suggesting the potential for XRP to surpass Ethereum in market capitalization if this trend continues.
  • Crypto funds see record $6.4 billion outflows over five weeks, with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs bleeding: Over the past five weeks, cryptocurrency investment products have experienced unprecedented outflows totaling $6.4 billion, marking the longest streak of consecutive weekly outflows since tracking began in 2015. Bitcoin funds were the most affected, with $5.4 billion withdrawn, while Ethereum products saw $175 million in outflows. This trend is largely attributed to escalating trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, leading investors to reassess their positions in digital assets.
  • Michael Saylor’s Strategy unveils $500M stock raise to buy more Bitcoin, offering 5M shares and paying up to 18% dividends: Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, plans to raise $500M through new preferred stock (STRF) to acquire more Bitcoin, offering up to 18% dividends. Analysts warn of potential risks like shareholder dilution and sustainability of high payouts. (source)
  • Coinbase stock projected to surge with over 60% upside amid Trump’s new crypto policies, analysts set $310 price target: Bernstein analysts set a $310 price target for Coinbase, citing regulatory tailwinds under Trump’s pro-crypto policies. Anticipated clarity may boost Coinbase’s market position.
  • First U.S. Solana Futures ETFs launch, offering standard and 2x leveraged exposure: Volatility Shares LLC is introducing two Solana futures ETFs: the Volatility Shares Solana ETF (SOLZ), providing standard exposure, and the Volatility Shares 2X Solana ETF (SOLT), offering leveraged exposure at twice the returns of Solana futures movements. These ETFs, launching on March 20, 2025, represent the first of their kind in the U.S., allowing investors regulated avenues to gain exposure to Solana without directly holding the cryptocurrency.
  • Raydium token soars as Solana exchange teases new memecoin launchpad: Raydium’s native token, RAY, experienced a significant surge, climbing over 28%, following the announcement of a new token launchpad, LaunchLab. This platform aims to rival existing memecoin launchpads like Pump.fun by offering enhanced features such as dynamic bonding curves and integration with Raydium’s liquidity lockers. The initiative is designed to enrich Solana’s ecosystem by simplifying on-chain token launches, reflecting Raydium’s commitment to fostering innovation within the network.
  • Ethereum to end support for Holesky testnet in September: The Ethereum Foundation has announced plans to discontinue support for the Holesky testnet by September 2025, following issues during the Pectra upgrade testing that led to a mass exit of validators. A new testnet, Hoodi, has been launched to facilitate future testing and will activate the Pectra upgrade on March 26, 2025.

Bitcoin Market Analysis

The Federal Reserve’s March 19, 2025, FOMC meeting maintained its stance on steady monetary policy, keeping interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%. Chair Powell expressed confidence in the U.S. economy’s stability, emphasizing resilient GDP growth, steady unemployment at 4%, and inflation progressing towards the Fed’s 2% goal. Despite raising the 2025 inflation outlook to 2.5% PCE due to newly implemented tariffs, Powell reiterated that such inflationary pressures remain “transitory,” signaling that the Fed will refrain from policy changes unless inflation shows persistent elevation, aligning with prior Fed communications.

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/

A notable development from the FOMC meeting was the Fed’s decision to slow Quantitative Tightening (QT) starting April, cutting the monthly cap on Treasury redemptions from $25 billion to $5 billion, while keeping the agency MBS runoff steady at $35 billion. This cautious adjustment aims to gradually decrease the Fed’s $7 trillion balance sheet without imposing excessive liquidity strain on markets. Investors perceived this as a dovish signal, implying an implicit liquidity boost amid escalating tariff risks. While prolonged tariffs may temporarily elevate inflation and suppress consumer spending, Powell maintained that policy alterations would only occur if inflation trends persistently above target.

Over the past seven days, Bitcoin displayed significant price volatility, oscillating between $80,743 and $86,614. BTC initially retreated towards its weekly low but found strong buying support, sparking a sharp recovery. Bitcoin tested the critical resistance near $87,000 but failed to sustain its momentum, stabilizing within the $85,000-$86,500 range. This indicates market caution, reflecting a balance between short-term bullish sentiment brougth by the FOMC news and broader macroeconomic uncertainties influencing trader behavior.

Source: https://altfins.com/technical-analysis

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s metrics deliver a mixed outlook. RSI indicators across various timeframes remain neutral, indicating indecision in the market. The Stochastic RSI, currently overbought, signals potential short-term selling pressure. However, bullish signals from both MACD and Momentum indicators suggest underlying positive momentum. Short-term moving averages exhibit downward trajectories, indicating immediate bearish pressure, but the bullish orientation of longer-term moving averages (100-day and 200-day) reinforces Bitcoin’s favorable long-term trend. Currently, Bitcoin remains comfortably within Bollinger Bands, signifying the possibility of future directional movements.

Following the FOMC statement, Bitcoin demonstrated notable resilience, buoyed by the market’s dovish interpretation of the Fed’s QT adjustments. Easing financial conditions typically benefit risk-on assets like Bitcoin, helping stabilize prices despite wider market uncertainty. Nonetheless, ongoing trade tensions and potential inflationary impacts create an environment of heightened vigilance, suggesting traders closely track evolving macroeconomic developments.

Adding to this, on-chain analysis suggests that the rising Coinbase Premium Index indicates U.S. institutional investors and whales are accumulating Bitcoin, a historically bullish signal that often precedes strong price rallies. However, despite this potential accumulation phase, broader market liquidity dynamics present a more nuanced picture.

Source: https://cryptoquant.com/insights

While total stablecoin supply has surged since November 2024, much of it has flowed into derivatives exchanges rather than spot markets, suggesting that recent price action is being driven more by leveraged trading than organic buying demand. A key factor to monitor is whether this new liquidity begins shifting toward spot markets, as institutions appear to be accumulating spot BTC while retail traders remain focused on derivatives due to the recent choppy, sideways price action. If institutional buying gains momentum in spot markets, it could provide a more stable foundation for Bitcoin’s rally. However, if derivatives-driven speculation continues to dominate, price volatility may persist, making it essential to track stablecoin flows and spot market demand.

Source: https://cryptoquant.com/insights

Ethereum Market Analysis

Ethereum echoed Bitcoin’s cautious yet optimistic movement over the last week, trading within a range from $1,930 to $2,067. ETH initially declined but quickly found firm support near $1,950, prompting a rebound toward the critical resistance level at $2,050. Although Ethereum was unable to decisively break through this level, it maintained upward momentum and consolidated near $2,020-$2,030, indicating sustained buying interest balanced by consistent resistance at higher levels.

Source: https://altfins.com/technical-analysis

Ethereum’s technical indicators remain mixed, mirroring Bitcoin’s outlook. Neutral RSI across multiple periods points to market indecision, while an overbought Stochastic RSI suggests possible short-term corrections. Bullish MACD and Momentum indicators hint at positive underlying momentum. Short-term moving averages are bearish, suggesting immediate consolidation pressures, though longer-term moving averages remain bullish, supporting sustained upward potential. Ethereum’s position within Bollinger Bands, combined with recent volume spikes, signals traders to closely monitor price movements for potential breakouts amid the current macroeconomic backdrop.

Mark Your Calendars

Economic Data Releases:

  • March 27, 2025 (Friday): Initial Jobless Claims for the week of March 22, 2025   

Token Unlock

  • March 19, 2025:
    • IMX: $14.31m worth of tokens unlocking (1.39% of circulating supply).
  • March 21, 2025:
    • MRS: $241.90m worth of tokens unlocking (11.87% of circulating supply).
  • March 24, 2025:
    • VENOM: $7.04m worth of tokens unlocking (2.90% of circulating supply).
  • March 25, 2025:
    • ENA: $3.08m worth of tokens unlocking (0.15% of circulating supply).