This Week’s Recap
Donald and Melania Trump launched their respective meme coins, $TRUMP and $MELANIA, on January 19 and 20 respectively, just days before Trump’s inauguration as the 47th President of the United States. $TRUMP quickly soared to a $15 billion market capitalization but faced a sharp decline to around $38 by January 21 after the release of $MELANIA. The Trump Organization controls 80% of the $TRUMP supply, with a three-year lock-up period, while $MELANIA made 65% of its supply available to the public. The launches have drawn criticism for their timing, raising ethical questions about potential conflicts of interest as Trump assumes office. Both tokens have also fueled debates over the regulatory classification of meme coins and their role in politics and cryptocurrency markets.
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reignited its legal battle with Ripple Labs, filing an appeal against the July 2023 ruling that partially favored Ripple. The SEC is specifically challenging the court’s decision that XRP sales on exchanges and through other distributions did not constitute investment contracts. They are arguing that XRP sales to retail investors do, in fact, qualify as unregistered securities under the Howey Test. Furthermore, the agency disputes the court’s findings on non-cash transactions, such as employee compensation, asserting that these also meet the criteria for securities. Ripple, maintaining that XRP is a digital currency and not a security, is preparing to contest the appeal. This ongoing legal battle carries significant weight, as its outcome will likely set a precedent for how cryptocurrencies are classified and regulated in the United States, influencing the SEC’s future enforcement power and providing much-needed clarity for the broader industry.
Meanwhile, the incoming Trump administration is signaling a starkly different approach to cryptocurrency, with plans to designate it as a national priority. According to anonymous sources familiar with the plans, an executive order is being drafted to direct government agencies to collaborate with the crypto industry. A key component of this initiative is the proposed establishment of a cryptocurrency advisory council comprising industry representatives to advocate for favorable policies. This pro-crypto stance is expected to have a significant impact on the market, potentially attracting further investment and fostering innovation, especially within the United States. The anticipation of this shift was arguably reflected in the surge of crypto ETF submissions, including applications for Solana and XRP ETFs, as the end of SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s term approached.
South Korea’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, Upbit, found itself under regulatory scrutiny. The Financial Information Analysis Institute (FIU) notified Upbit of potential sanctions due to alleged failures in complying with AML and KYC regulations. The potential penalties are severe, including a possible six-month ban on new customer-related transactions. Upbit was given until January 20th to submit its response, after which the FIU will review the case and make a final decision. This development follows South Korea’s 2022 pledge to implement stricter oversight of cryptocurrency exchanges in the wake of the Terra ecosystem collapse.
The Ethereum network is gearing up for a major upgrade. Developers have scheduled the “Pectra” mainnet upgrade for March 2025. This upgrade incorporates eight Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs) designed to enhance both wallet usability and staking efficiency. Notably, EIP-7702 will allow regular Ethereum wallets to function similarly to smart contracts, while EIP-7251 will significantly increase the maximum effective balance for validators from 32 ETH to 2,048 ETH, potentially attracting more participants to staking. The Ethereum Foundation further demonstrated its commitment to ecosystem growth by allocating 50,000 ETH, worth approximately $165.3 million, to actively participate in decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, using a 3-of-5 multisig wallet through Safe.
MicroStrategy continued its aggressive accumulation strategy. The company, led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, purchased an additional 11,000 BTC for a staggering $1.1 billion, bringing its total holdings to an impressive 461,000 BTC. This latest acquisition, averaging $101,191 per token, represents the company’s 11th consecutive week of Bitcoin purchases. Despite record-high Bitcoin mining difficulty, reaching 110.45 trillion, miners are maintaining robust profit margins, approximately three times their operational costs. The network’s hashrate has also grown significantly, ranging between 700-900 EH/s, reflecting the resilience and increasing participation in Bitcoin mining. To counter rising competition, miners are diversifying into areas like high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence (AI).
Lastly, President Trump granted a “full and unconditional” pardon to Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the Silk Road darknet marketplace. Ulbricht had been serving a life sentence for his role in facilitating over $200 million in illicit trade using Bitcoin. This pardon, a fulfillment of a campaign promise, marks a significant departure from previous regulatory stances and has reignited the debate surrounding the use of cryptocurrency in illicit activities.
Crypto Headlines & Industry Updates
Trump launches his own $TRUMP meme coin, price soars overnight
Just ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025. Specifically, Donald Trump’s $TRUMP coin was launched on January 17, 2025, while Melania Trump’s $MELANIA coin was launched on January 19, 2025. There has been no official launch of a cryptocurrency by Barron Trump; however, there have been unofficial and fake meme coins launched in his name
SEC Appeals Ripple Ruling, Seeks Reversal on XRP Classification
The SEC has appealed a 2023 ruling favoring Ripple, arguing XRP sales to retail investors are unregistered securities. The appeal could influence the SEC’s regulatory power and provide clarity for the crypto industry.
Ethereum developers schedule Pectra mainnet upgrade for March12
Ethereum developers have scheduled the “Pectra” upgrade for March 2025, introducing key improvements to wallet usability and staking efficiency. The upgrade combines eight Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs), including EIP-7702, enabling wallets to function like smart contracts, and EIP-7251, increasing the validator staking cap from 32 ETH to 2,048 ETH. Originally intended as a larger upgrade, Pectra was scaled back and split into two.
Gensler’s imminent exit triggers wave of crypto ETF submissions
As Gary Gensler’s SEC term ended on Jan. 20, the crypto industry filed numerous ETFs, anticipating a pro-crypto Trump administration. Key filings included Solana Futures, spot XRP, and “Onchain Economy” ETFs. Gensler’s exit fueled hopes for friendlier regulations.
Trump’s World Liberty Financial buys and swaps over $100M in crypto tokens, including ETH, WBTC, etc
On January 20, 2025, World Liberty Financial acquired $112.8M in crypto, including $47M in ETH and $47M in WBTC, boosting its treasury to 57,115 ETH ($185.14M) and 456.7 WBTC ($46.5M). It also added $4.7M each in AAVE, LINK, TRX, and ENA, highlighting its diversification strategy.
Ethereum Foundation moves $165M in ETH to support DeFi apps
The Ethereum Foundation allocated 50,000 ETH ($165.3M) to DeFi via a multisig wallet, starting with an Aave transaction. With its treasury down 39% to $970.2M over three years, this move signals greater ecosystem involvement. Leadership changes aim to boost technical expertise and support app builders without shifting ideology.
MicroStrategy buys 11,000 BTC for $1.1B, increasing holdings to 461,000 BTC9
MicroStrategy, led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, purchased 11,000 Bitcoin for $1.1 billion, marking its 11th consecutive week of acquisitions. The company’s total holdings now stand at 461,000 BTC, with an overall average purchase price of $63,610 per Bitcoin. The latest purchase averaged $101,191 per token. Michael Saylor hinted at the announcement on X, sharing photos with figures like Eric Trump and David Sacks. Despite the news, MicroStrategy shares showed modest declines in premarket trading.
Bitcoin miners maintain 3x profit margins despite higher network difficulty
MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, acquired 11,000 BTC for $1.1B, raising its total to 461,000 BTC at an average cost of $63,610. The latest purchase averaged $101,191 per BTC. Despite the announcement, its shares saw modest premarket declines.
Trump pardons Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht
President Donald Trump pardoned Ross Ulbricht, founder of Silk Road, who was serving a life sentence for facilitating over $200M in illicit bitcoin trade. Released on January 21, the pardon fulfilled Trump’s campaign promise and marked a shift in regulatory stance.
Bitcoin Market Analysis
Over the past 7 days, Bitcoin has exhibited a dynamic price trajectory characterized by a strong initial rally followed by a recent pullback. From January 15th to 19th, riding the Trump inauguration excitement, Bitcoin demonstrated a steady upward trend, breaking through key resistance levels with convincing volume, indicative of strong buying pressure. This culminated in a surge above the psychologically significant $100,000 level on January 19th. The bullish momentum intensified on January 20th and 21st, propelling Bitcoin to a new all-time high of $109,114.88. However, a closer examination reveals a subtle divergence between price and volume. While the price reached new highs, volume started to decrease on these up days, signaling a potential exhaustion of buying pressure and raising a cautionary flag for technical analysts.
Today, January 23rd, marks a turning point in this 7-day narrative. Bitcoin is experiencing a significant pullback, currently trading around $104,466. This retracement is accompanied by increased selling volume, suggesting profit-taking after the impressive rally.
Technical indicators corroborate this shift in momentum. The RSI, while still above 50, shows a bearish divergence on both daily and 7-day charts, indicating weakening momentum. The MACD histogram displays declining positive values over the past week, further confirming the loss of bullish momentum. Additionally, the OBV indicator reveals a divergence with price, suggesting waning buying pressure.
Source: Tradingview
The $100,000 level now assumes critical importance as a key support zone. A break below this level could trigger a deeper correction, potentially leading to a retest of the $95,000 support. However, the overall bullish trend remains intact, supported by the 50-day MA trading above the 200-day MA, a “golden cross” formation that suggests a prevailing uptrend in the medium to long term.
Source:cryptoquant.com @tavomendez
Long-term holders are driving significant Bitcoin accumulation, showing strong confidence in its future. Exchange reserves continue to drop as investors move assets to self-custody, reducing sell-side liquidity and supporting the bullish trend. This shift aligns with Bitcoin’s recent price gains, suggesting investors are positioning for further upside despite the current pullback. On-chain data points to a strong market foundation, with accumulation and declining exchange reserves reinforcing the bullish outlook.
Source: Source: https://altfins.com/
Meanwhile, Ethereum has been trading within a narrow range over the past week, with price action consolidating between $3,100 and $3,500. This period of sideways movement follows a recent uptrend, suggesting a potential pause before the next major price move. Technical indicators offer mixed signals, with some pointing towards a possible downside correction while others remain neutral. Trading volume has been relatively stable.
Other Analysis and Commentaries
According to @rektcapital bitcoin is likely in a re-accumulation phase, potentially leading to a price surge to around $150,000, aligning with historical trends and the Pi Cycle indicator.
@100trillionUSD implied Bitcoin’s price is catching up to his Stock-to-Flow model, suggesting drastic price surge are expected to come.
@woonomic discussed the strategic approach to implementing a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, suggesting an executive order might be too blunt and assessing success likelihood is crucial.
@intocryptoverse cautioned Bitcoin buyers, pointing to the current “orange” risk level of 0.606 in his Bitcoin Risk Metric, suggesting that while moderate risk is present, we are likely still approaching the market top as previous peaks coincided with prolonged periods of higher risk levels (above 0.8-1)
Mark Your Calendars
Economic Data
January 28–29, 2025
- Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will convene to discuss monetary policy and interest rates.
SEC Decisions
January 23, 2025
- Grayscale Solana Trust Fund Conversion: The SEC is expected to decide on Grayscale’s proposal to convert its Solana Trust Fund into an ETF.
January 25, 2025
- VanEck, 21Shares, Canary, and Bitwise Solana ETF Proposals: The SEC will make initial decisions on Solana ETF proposals submitted by VanEck, 21Shares, Canary, and Bitwise.
Token Unlocks
January 24, 2025
- Immutable (IMX): 24.52M tokens (1.42% of circulating supply), worth $28.68M.
January 31, 2025
- Optimism (OP): 31.34M tokens (2.31% of circulating supply), worth $52.65M.
February 1, 2025
- Sui (SUI): 64.19M tokens (2.13% of circulating supply), worth $280.52M.
- ZetaChain (ZETA): 44.26M tokens (7.68% of circulating supply), worth $20.12M.
