Bitcoin Market Analysis

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $91,000. Following news of a potential Trump administration crypto reserve, Bitcoin briefly surged past $94,000, an explosive breakout that reflected intense, though fleeting, bullish momentum fueled primarily by policy speculation. Had this level solidified as a new support, it could have signaled the start of a sustained upward trend; instead, the rapid retreat from that peak highlighted the rally’s reliance on headline-driven hype rather than robust technical foundations.

Source: https://altfins.com/technical-analysis

Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin’s price action has been volatile. In mid-January 2025, BTC reached an all-time high of around $108,000 before forming a double top near that level, a technical pattern that has since foreshadowed further downside potential. Following this, the breakdown of the $90,000–$92,000 support zone set the stage for a projected target near $74,000, a critical support area further reinforced by key moving averages like the 200-day SMA and the 50-week EMA. On February 28, Bitcoin dipped sharply to around $79,000, testing these support levels. The subsequent Trump reserve announcement briefly propelled the price to nearly $95,000, but the surge was short-lived, with BTC later correcting to approximately $85,000 and further falling to about $82,600.

More recently, Bitcoin has rebounded to around $91,000, a recovery fueled by bullish expectations surrounding an upcoming crypto summit and positive geopolitical shifts, notably Ukrainian President Zelensky’s pledge to seek peace with Russia alongside a U.S. minerals deal. This upswing follows a volatile period, with the market remaining highly responsive to both technical indicators like the critical support level near $74,000 and external catalysts such as policy and global events. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs have snapped an eight-day outflow streak, pulling in $95 million in fresh investments, a sign of renewed confidence in Bitcoin-related products amid the price rally. Traders should stay vigilant, monitoring both chart-based signals and news developments that could dictate Bitcoin’s next move.

Despite resilience in Bitcoin ETFs, which recently snapped an eight-day outflow streak with $95 million in inflows, the broader crypto investment landscape remains unsettled, marked by a $2.9 billion exodus from Crypto Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) last week—part of a three-week, $3.8 billion withdrawal streak signaling widespread caution or profit-taking. Yet, Bitcoin’s dominance has soared to a four-year high of 61.63%, commanding a $1.8 billion market cap within the $3.1 trillion crypto market, a level last witnessed during the run-up in and late 2020 that ignited the subsequent 2020-2021 bull run. This resurgence underscores Bitcoin’s growing grip on market capital, likely sidelining altcoins as investors flock to its perceived stability amid uncertainty, signaling a cautious but potentially bullish shift reminiscent of past cycles.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/

Over the past seven days ending March 6, 2025, Ethereum (ETH) has staged a modest recovery, climbing 4.74% to $2,281.55 after bouncing off its $1,900 support level. This uptick follows a week of choppy trading within a persistent Channel Down pattern, a technical formation that hints at a potential bullish breakout, though no confirmation has emerged. The price briefly tested the channel’s lower trendline before rallying toward $2,400 resistance, a key level that ETH has yet to breach convincingly. Despite this short-term lift, Ethereum remains under pressure, with its 50-day SMA ($2,900.00) and 200-day SMA ($3,078.87) looming above, reinforcing a broader downtrend across multiple timeframes.

Source: https://altfins.com/technical-analysis

Technical indicators over the week are mixed. The MACD remains bearish, with the line below the signal, though rising histogram bars suggest fading downside momentum, a glimmer of hope for bulls. The RSI has hovered in neutral territory, reflecting indecision as ETH oscillates between support at $2,150 and $2,400. Meanwhile, fundamental developments can stir the market. The Pectra upgrade, set for late March 2025, promises scalability boosts and lower fees but hit snags with testnet issues. The Holesky testnet, activated February 24, suffered chain splits, while Sepolia’s March 5 launch saw block production errors, challenges developers have since patched, though lingering concerns about readiness tempered mid-week sentiment.

Source: https://x.com/saylor

Michael Saylor tweeted that he has been invited to the White House Digital Assets Summit, set for March 7, 2025, where key crypto leaders, including Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov, will engage with President Donald Trump and U.S. officials. The summit aims to explore crypto regulations, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and the integration of digital assets like XRP, Solana, and Cardano into the U.S. financial system. The Presidential Working Group on Digital Assets will lead discussions on how the country can strategically utilize blockchain technology amid increasing global adoption. Saylor, a well-known Bitcoin proponent, has long advocated for the U.S. to accumulate 10–20% of the global Bitcoin supply as a hedge against national debt, reinforcing his belief that Bitcoin’s market cap could eventually hit $200 trillion. The event highlights the growing intersection of crypto and U.S. policy, with industry leaders closely monitoring potential regulatory shifts and national adoption strategies that could emerge from these high-level discussions.

Earlier this week, President Trump announced the creation of a U.S. Crypto Strategic Reserve, a proposal that aims to integrate digital assets into national financial infrastructure. The reserve is expected to include Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA), signaling a major policy shift toward embracing cryptocurrencies as part of the country’s economic strategy. Following the announcement, Bitcoin surged nearly to $95,000, while Ethereum and other altcoins saw double-digit gains. The proposal, however, has sparked debate among policymakers, with some viewing it as a necessary step for innovation, while others raise concerns over crypto’s volatility and national security risks. Trump is expected to expand on this initiative during the summit, providing further insights into how the administration plans to manage and implement the crypto reserve. With these developments, the summit’s outcomes could have long-term implications for both the regulatory landscape and institutional adoption of digital assets in the U.S.

This Week’s Recap

  • US Senate Votes to Repeal DeFi Tax Rule: The U.S. Senate has voted 70-27 to repeal a Biden-era regulation that required decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms to report customer transactions to the IRS. This bipartisan decision is viewed as a positive development for the crypto industry, potentially reducing compliance burdens for DeFi platforms.
  • Aave Considers Major Tokenomics Change; AAVE Jumps 21%: Aave’s governance has proposed significant updates to its tokenomics, including changes to staking rewards and revenue distribution. Following the announcement, the AAVE token experienced a 20% surge, reflecting strong market interest in the proposed changes.
  • BlackRock Adds Bitcoin ETF to Model Portfolios, allocating 1%-2% to its model portfolios for investors with higher risk tolerance. The move integrates iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) into broader investment strategies.
  • Bitwise Files for Aptos ETF, leading to a 12% price surge in the Aptos (APT) token. The proposed ETF aims to provide institutional exposure to the Aptos blockchain ecosystem.
  • Sygnum Bank Expands Crypto Custody to Include Deribit, leveraging Fireblocks’ technology for enhanced security. The move strengthens institutional access to digital asset derivatives.
  • Ripple-backed National Cryptocurrency Association launched an educational platform with a $50 million grant to improve public understanding of digital assets in the U.S. The initiative aims to provide accessible resources, responding to an increasing demand for crypto education.
  • Metaplanet acquired $43.9 million worth of Bitcoin, adding 497 BTC to its holdings, bringing its total to 2,888 BTC. The move led to a 19% surge in its stock price, reflecting strong investor confidence.
  • The SEC dropped its lawsuit against Cumberland DRW, marking another dissolved crypto investigation under the Trump administration. This decision signals a potential shift in regulatory scrutiny toward crypto trading firms.
  • Bank of Israel has released a preliminary design for its central bank digital currency, the digital shekel. The bank is seeking public feedback on the proposed features and implementation strategies.
  • JPMorgan reports that Bitcoin miners faced economic challenges in February, with the total market capitalization of 14 publicly-listed U.S. miners dropping by 22%. The decline is attributed to a combination of falling Bitcoin prices and increased mining difficulty.
  • Do Kwon’s U.S. court hearing has been postponed to April 10, as prosecutors review a substantial cache of new evidence totaling four terabytes. This delay underscores the complexity and scale of the ongoing legal proceedings against the former Terraform Labs CEO.
  • SEC Drops Lawsuit Against Kraken: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has agreed to dismiss its lawsuit against cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, which had been accused of operating as an unregistered securities exchange. This decision is part of a broader trend of regulatory retreats in the crypto sector under the current administration.
  • Binance to Delist USDT and Other Stablecoins for EEA Users Due to MiCA Regulations: In compliance with the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulations, Binance will delist nine stablecoins, including Tether (USDT), for users in the European Economic Area by March 31, 2025. This move aligns with MiCA’s stricter reserve requirements for stablecoin issuers.
  • Two U.S. States Race to Establish Bitcoin Reserves: Two U.S. states are actively competing to establish Bitcoin reserves, signaling a growing acceptance of cryptocurrency at the state government level. While some states have paused or abandoned similar initiatives due to regulatory uncertainties and market volatility, these two states are moving forward, reflecting a diverse approach to digital asset adoption across the country.
  • MetaMask to Support Bitcoin and Solana, Unveil New Roadmap, and Eventually End Gas Fees: MetaMask has announced plans to integrate native support for Bitcoin and Solana into its wallet, expanding beyond Ethereum-based assets. The roadmap also includes features aimed at reducing and eventually eliminating gas fees, enhancing user experience.
  • Boerse Stuttgart Partners with DekaBank to Enable Crypto Trading for Institutional Clients: Boerse Stuttgart Digital, the digital asset arm of Germany’s second-largest stock exchange, has partnered with DekaBank to offer cryptocurrency trading services to institutional clients. This collaboration leverages Boerse Stuttgart’s regulated infrastructure to provide secure and compliant crypto trading solutions. 10
  • SEC Delays Decision on Ethereum ETF Options: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has postponed its decision on proposed Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) options, citing the need for additional time to evaluate the applications. This delay reflects the SEC’s cautious approach toward cryptocurrency-based investment products.

Economic Data Releases

March 5, 2025 (Wednesday):

  • ADP Employment (Feb.): 77K (Forecast: 148K, Prev: 186K)

March 7, 2025 (Friday):

  • U.S. Jobs Report (Feb.): Forecast: 170K (Prev: 143K)
  • U.S. Unemployment Rate (Feb.): Forecast: 4.0% (Prev: 4.0%)
  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks (12:30 PM ET)

March 12, 2025 (Wednesday):

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI, Feb.): Forecast: 0.5%
  • CPI Year-over-Year (Feb.): Forecast: 3.0%
  • Core CPI (Feb.): Forecast: 0.4%
  • Core CPI Year-over-Year (Feb.): Forecast: 3.0%

Token Unlocks

March 9, 2025:

  • MOVE: $24.92M unlocking (2.08% of circulating supply).

March 10, 2025:

  • APT: $70.46M unlocking (1.92% of circulating supply).

March 12, 2025:

  • STRK: $12.07M unlocking (2.33% of circulating supply).