This Week’s Recap

Bitcoin Market Analysis   

Over the past week, Bitcoin has demonstrated renewed bullish conviction, climbing from $91,700 on April 22 to approximately $96,500 by May 2—a gain of roughly 10 percent from the swing low near $87,000 recorded on April 20. This advance was punctuated by a decisive breakout above the $90,000 zone, which had acted as strong resistance since March, and by a reclaiming of the 200-day simple moving average on the daily chart—triggering a classic golden-crossover that signals a shift from bearish to bullish structure. Price also pierced a descending trendline drawn from December’s double-top peaks near $108,000, echoing the shorter-term breakouts. Most structurally significant is that the supply gap between $74,000 and $90,000 created in November 2024 has now been completely filled, confirming that buyers have absorbed all latent sell-side liquidity and are positioning for higher targets.

Source: https://altfins.com/technical-analysis

In its current setup, Bitcoin sits just beneath two major resistance tiers at $100,000 and the all-time-high region at $108,000, while nearest support clusters reside at $89,800 (the 200-day SMA and convergence of the old trendline) and the $72,000–$74,000 zone marking the low end of the November gap. Momentum indicators present a nuanced picture: the 14-period RSI on the daily timeframe hovers around 67.7, inside bullish territory but not yet overextended, leaving room for further upside. Meanwhile, the MACD line sits near 2,971, comfortably above its 2,411 signal line, and the histogram reads about 560, indicating sustained bullish momentum even as bar heights begin to taper. Over the coming weeks, the most likely scenario is a modest pullback to retest the $90,000–$91,000 area, where confluence of moving‐average support and former resistance should provide a low-risk entry for new buyers. A successful hold here would open the path back toward $100,000, whereas a break below could see deeper consolidation toward the $75,000 region.

This technical strength is reinforced by significant institutional and market-structure developments. Amid recent U.S. tariff-related volatility, on-chain data and chart studies have highlighted Bitcoin’s outperformance versus U.S. equities and the dollar—fueling a resurgence in its narrative as a non-sovereign store of value. In the past week, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) bolstered its treasury by acquiring an additional 15,355 BTC at a cost of approximately $1.42 billion, bringing its total holdings to 553,555 BTC. At the same time, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs registered inflows exceeding $3 billion—their largest weekly intake in five months—while Bitcoin’s market dominance rose to a four-year high, underscoring growing institutional conviction and capital rotation back into digital assets.

Source: https://x.com/saylor/

On the macroeconomic front, fresh U.S. data paints a softer growth and labor backdrop that may influence Federal Reserve policy. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3 percent in Q1 2025, marking the first quarterly decline in three years and reflecting import front-loading ahead of tariff hikes. Meanwhile, the Department of Labor reported that weekly initial jobless claims climbed to 241,000—their highest level since February—and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2 percent, both figures exceeding consensus forecasts. This combination of slowing output and a cooling labor market increases the likelihood that the Fed will pause or slow its tightening cycle in order to support growth and employment. For Bitcoin, a more dovish Fed stance could translate into looser financial conditions, potentially fueling further demand and driving BTC through its next key resistance layers.

Ethereum Market Analysis   

Over the past week, Ethereum (ETH) regained bullish momentum, climbing from $1,756.11 on April 22 to $1,847.01 on May 2—a 5.2 percent advance over nine trading sessions. Intraday, ETH tested resistance near $1,850.89 before closing at $1,847.01, with a low of $1,835.43, underscoring buyers’ commitment above the $1,800 zone. On the daily chart, price has settled just above the $1,700–$1,750 support corridor, repelling a brief pullback to $1,736.41 on April 30 before resuming its advance. The 14-period RSI sits at 56.8, indicating room for further upside, while the MACD line (27.95) remains above its signal line (12.86) with a positive histogram of 15.09, confirming that bullish momentum is intact.

Source: https://altfins.com/technical-analysis

From a trade-setup perspective, ETH’s move represents a bullish breakout from the falling-wedge pattern and a clean breach of the $1,700 resistance level. This configuration typically signals a trend-reversal with potential upside toward $1,900, though the risk is elevated since it runs counter to the long-term downtrend. A prudent stop-loss sits at $1,580, below the late-April lows, to guard against false breakouts. Trend assessments on the daily timeframe classify short-term trend as up, medium-term as neutral, and long-term as strong down, reinforcing that swing traders should wait for a retest of the wedge’s upper boundary before scaling in. Volume during the breakout was modest, suggesting a cautious entry and the need for confirmation via follow-through above $1,820.

On the fundamental and protocol front, Ethereum’s roadmap remains active. Researchers have proposed a 100× increase in the gas-limit ceiling, which could boost throughput to ~2,000 transactions per second in the coming years. Meanwhile, the Fusaka hard fork—set for Q3/Q4 2025—will introduce EIP-9678, formalizing a phased gas-limit expansion to support scaling. Leadership changes at the Ethereum Foundation have also been announced co-executive directors Hsiao-Wei Wang and Josh Stark join Vitalik Buterin and President Aya Miyaguchi on a restructured board, separating governance oversight from daily operations. Finally, the Pectra upgrade completed its final test on the Hoodi net in late March and is slated for mainnet activation on May 7, 2025, pending the 30-day stability window.

Bitcoin and M2 Chart Correlation

Global liquidity measures remain elevated and continue to expand. As of March 2025, U.S. M2 money supply stood at $21.76 trillion, up 0.42 percent month-on-month and 4.12 percent year-over-year—its highest annual pace since early 2023. On a broader scale, aggregate global M2 is estimated at $123 trillion in early 2025, representing a 3.85 percent rise over the first quarter. Despite the Federal Reserve’s recent signals to hold interest rates steady as it gauges incoming inflation and labor data, this ongoing expansion of money stock underpins ample system-wide liquidity.

Source: https://x.com/Dennis_Porter/

Bitcoin’s price action has mirrored these liquidity trends with a roughly 90-day lag. As global M2 began accelerating late last year, Bitcoin found its trough near $75 000 in mid-February 2025—approximately three months after M2’s local trough—before embarking on its current uptrend to $96 400 today. Studies show that when global M2 surges, Bitcoin tends to follow suit about 12 weeks later, albeit with elastic correlation that can be modulated by ETF flows, macro surprises, and narrative shifts. With global M2 still climbing, the model suggests Bitcoin’s bullish phase may extend into Q3 2025, contingent on sustained momentum and continued institutional demand.

Mark Your Calendars

  • May 7, 2025
    • FOMC meeting and Fed Chair Powell press conference
  • May 8, 2025
    • Q1 U.S. Productivity Index

Token Unlock

  • May 2, 2025: Ethena (ENA) – $65.73 M unlocking (3.83% of circulating supply)
  • May 4, 2025: IOTA (IOTA) – $1.82 M unlocking (0.23% of circulating supply)
  • May 7, 2025: Kaspa (KAS) – $13.78 M unlocking (0.55% of circulating supply)
  • May 9, 2025: Mocaverse (MOCA) – $3.93 M unlocking (1.65% of circulating supply)