Bitcoin held above 105k and sets its eyes on 112k

3rd July 2025 • 11 mins read

This Week’s Recap

  • Vitalik Buterin Warns Ethereum’s Decentralization Is at Risk: Buterin cautioned that treating decentralization as a slogan undermines Ethereum’s network resilience. He called for genuine on-chain governance to ensure validator diversity and warned that without those safeguards, centralization pressures could compromise the protocol. 
  • Crypto Investors Lost $2.5 B to Hacks and Scams in H1 2025: CertiK’s Hacked Report reveals that exploits at platforms like Bybit and Cetus Protocol drove losses past last year’s total. The growing sophistication of attacks highlights systemic DeFi security weaknesses and underscores the need for improved smart-contract audits and insurance solutions. 
  • SEC Pauses Grayscale Large-Cap Fund Conversion: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission reopened its review of Grayscale’s planned conversion into an ETF. This move underscores regulatory caution around transforming crypto trusts into mainstream investment vehicles and signals potential hurdles for other fund approvals. 
  • Deutsche Bank’s DWS, Galaxy and Flow Traders to Introduce German-Regulated Stablecoin: Three institutional giants are collaborating under the EU’s MiCA framework to launch a compliant digital-euro stablecoin. The effort aims to attract institutional on-chain cash alternatives and, if successful, could set a precedent for bank-backed digital currencies in Europe. 
  • Scaramucci Says Bitcoin Treasury Trend Will Fade Despite Saylor’s Success: Anthony Scaramucci predicts that corporate Bitcoin holdings will plateau as firms diversify their digital-asset strategies. He argues that the initial frenzy driven by high-profile buys may give way to more nuanced balance-sheet approaches as the market matures. 
  • JPMorgan’s Kinexys Tests Tokenized Carbon Credits With S&P Global: JPMorgan’s blockchain arm is piloting an on-chain marketplace for carbon credits, integrating S&P Global data for transparency and verifiable impact metrics. The platform could streamline trade-finance settlement and pave the way for broader corporate participation in tokenized environmental assets. 
  • Solana Staking ETF Opens for U.S. Trading: The first U.S.-listed Solana staking ETF now lets investors earn on-chain rewards while maintaining liquidity. Its performance could influence the launch of similar staking-based ETFs across other proof-of-stake networks. 
  • Ripple Seeks U.S. National Banking Charter: Ripple has applied for a national bank charter in the U.S., aiming to integrate cryptocurrency more deeply into traditional finance. The charter would allow Ripple to accelerate payment settlements and reduce costs by bypassing intermediary banks. Ripple is also pursuing a Federal Reserve master account to hold its RLUSD stablecoin reserves directly with the Fed. 
  • Oasis Protocol Launches ROFL Mainnet: The Oasis Protocol Foundation has launched the ROFL Mainnet, a verifiable off-chain computer framework designed to power AI applications. ROFL enables complex computations off-chain within secure enclaves while retaining blockchain-level trust and privacy. Positioned as a “Trustless AWS,” the framework could accelerate enterprise adoption of confidential computing for DeFi and AI workloads.
  • Swyftx Acquires Caleb & Brown for $65.8 Million to Expand U.S. Footprint: Australian exchange Swyftx is acquiring boutique brokerage Caleb & Brown for about $65.8 million to serve high-net-worth U.S. clients . The deal gives Swyftx immediate access to Caleb & Brown’s OTC services and expertise in U.S. regulation. It underscores a trend of consolidation and cross-border expansion among crypto platforms targeting institutional and UHNW investors. 
  • Tron Selects Kraken as Network Super Representative: Kraken has been elected as a Super Representative on the TRON blockchain, tasked with validating transactions and producing blocks . The partnership is designed to bolster network security and uptime through institutional-grade staking infrastructure. It also signals growing institutional confidence in TRON’s governance model.
  • Robinhood Opens Tokenized Equity Trading for OpenAI, SpaceX and U.S. Stocks on Arbitrum: On June 30, 2025, Robinhood launched tokenized trading of over 200 U.S. equities and ETFs—including private-equity tokens for OpenAI and SpaceX—on its Ethereum Layer-2 network. Tokens trade 24/7 during weekdays and entitle holders to dividends without voting rights, while Robinhood retains custody of the underlying shares. The initiative forms part of a broader crypto expansion that includes building a proprietary L2 blockchain, offering perpetual futures in Europe, and rolling out crypto staking in the U.S.
  • Circle applies for US trust bank charter after bumper IPO: Circle filed for a national trust bank charter with the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency following its IPO valuing the firm at nearly $18 billion. The charter would let Circle custody its USDC reserves and offer tokenized asset services to institutions, though it cannot accept deposits or issue loans. Its planned First National Digital Currency Bank, N.A., underscores Circle’s push for transparency and regulatory compliance ahead of expected federal stablecoin legislation. 

Bitcoin Market Analysis

Over the past seven days bitcoin trading moved in a tight range between roughly $105,000 and $109,600. The week kicked off with a solid bounce off the $105,000 support zone, sending price up to test the former $110,000 resistance area. On the technical front bitcoin remains firmly above its 200-day simple moving average near $96,000, which confirms the long term uptrend. The RSI sits at about 58 indicating neutral momentum with no clear overbought or oversold bias. The MACD line lies just below its signal line and the histogram has flattened, suggesting a pause rather than a reversal, while declining volume warns to watch for fresh conviction.

Source: https://altfins.com/technical-analysis

Looking ahead into this week the key pivot lies in the $105,000 support zone where buyers re-entered this week. A sustained hold there could fuel a swift retest of the $112,000 all-time high, offering near term upside, and open the path toward 120,000 for a deeper twenty percent move. If that support gives way the next buffer sits at 96,000.

Over the two weeks, the flood of capital into Bitcoin ETFs has painted a clear picture. Investors are eager for regulated, on-ramp exposure to crypto. From June 9 through June 30 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs notched 15 straight days of net inflows, amassing roughly $4.7 billion in fresh demand. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust drove most of the action, bringing in about $3.77 billion on its own. That sustained buying streak set the tone for broader institutional interest and underscored ETFs’ role as a primary conduit for large pools of capital.

Source: https://sosovalue.com/dashboard/total-crypto-spot-etf-fund-flow 

While ETF flows have dominated headlines, corporate treasuries quietly piled on additional layers of conviction. MicroStrategy snapped up 4,980 BTC, lifting its total to about 597,325 BTC , and Japanese investment firm Metaplanet added 1,005 BTC, bringing its hoard to 13,350. Then there’s American Bitcoin, the Hut 8 subsidiary backed by Eric Trump. It raised $220 million in a private placement specifically to buy Bitcoin and expand mining operations. These moves show that beyond passive ETF demand, active corporate balance-sheet diversification remains in full swing.

On the infrastructure side, SoFi’s plan to launch blockchain-powered remittances in 2025 signals that financial firms are building on-ramps of their own. Converting U.S. dollars into local currencies over Bitcoin rails could reshape international payments and introduce new on-chain liquidity. In a more symbolic moment an anonymous wallet sent 0.185 BTC back to Satoshi Nakamoto’s original address on June 30, highlighting how Bitcoin’s lore still resonates, whether as a tribute or simply an exchange-driven transfer.

Beneath these demand-side catalysts, supply-side metrics reveal tightening conditions. Exchange reserves have sunk to about 14.5 percent of total supply, the lowest level since 2018, and Bitcoin’s realized capitalization has climbed from roughly $812 billion at the start of the year to about $955 billion today. That jump in realized cap points to genuine capital inflows rather than speculative on-chain churning. At the same time on-chain profit-taking by mid-term holders has cooled: daily realized gains have eased below $900 million, and Glassnode data shows 3–5-year holders booked approximately $849 million in profits during June. Taken together, these trends paint a narrative of maturing demand, tightening supply, and a market that’s finding equilibrium between steady inflows and measured profit-taking as Bitcoin extends its multi-year uptrend.

Source: https://studio.glassnode.com/

Bitcoin dominance is now hovering near 70 percent, a threshold last reached before the previous cycle’s widespread altcoin rally. As more capital pours into what investors view as the safest crypto asset, liquidity in smaller tokens dries up and their trading volumes tend to wane. Traders often wait until they feel fully invested in Bitcoin and then look for signs that upside is limited before reallocating into higher-beta projects.

‘Source: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTC.D/

How dominance behaves around this 70 percent mark can set the stage for different outcomes. A modest pullback from the high 60s back toward the low 60s typically sparks a targeted altcoin bounce focused on DeFi or Layer-one tokens. A sharper drop toward 60 percent often ushers in a broad altcoin season that spans DeFi, NFTs, memecoins and layer-two assets. If dominance instead stalls at its peak and holds, capital may remain locked in Bitcoin until new on-chain or macro catalysts emerge. Keeping an eye on Bitcoin dominance around this key level gives you an early warning of when traders are ready to reignite the wider crypto market.

Ethereum Market Analysis

Over the past seven days Ethereum oscillated between roughly $2,400 and $2,600. Early in the week price slipped back to test the $2,400 level after failing to clear the $2,550 area, then staged a swift recovery above $2,500, showing demand and underlying bid. By midweek Ether climbed back abovethe 200-day moving average near 2 530. On the technical side, The RSI sits near 49, squarely in the middle of its range, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. The MACD line is below its signal line but flattening, which suggests momentum is pausing rather than reversing. Meanwhile volume has tapered off on the rebound, so a decisive move above the 200-day MA at 2,530 will be key to confirming renewed strength.

Source: https://altfins.com/technical-analysis 

Looking ahead this week the 2,600 to 2,650 area will be the primary battleground, with a clear break there likely opening a run at the next resistance levels of 2,760 and then 3,000. If Ether can sustain being above the 200-day MA, it will signal the uptrend’s resumption and could trigger fresh buying in those targets. Conversely a failure to breach that zone could see price slip back toward 2,400 and even revisit 2,100, so traders may want to set alerts around both support and resistance as they manage risk.

Ethereum’s institutional momentum continues to build, with U.S. spot ETFs posting seven straight weeks of net inflows. Glassnode data confirms that around 106,000 ETH, just over $260 million, entered these funds in the most recent week. Claims of $429 million in weekly inflows or $2.9 billion year-to-date have surfaced, but those numbers don’t appear in any public filings or reliable data feeds so far.

Even without the inflated figures, the trend is clear: institutional capital is steadily integrating Ethereum into traditional portfolios. The SEC’s approval of Grayscale’s multi-token ETF, which includes ETH alongside BTC, SOL, XRP, and ADA, marks a key shift in regulatory acceptance of diversified crypto products. At the same time, Ethereum remains critical infrastructure for decentralized finance. Nearly half of all stablecoins are issued on its network, reinforcing its role not just as an asset but as the foundation of tokenized finance.

Source: https://studio.glassnode.com/

June 2025 was packed with record-breaking milestones for Ethereum, even if the price didn’t reflect it. While market makers continue to dampen price movement, the on-chain data tells a different story, one of rising conviction and deep accumulation. Addresses that meet strict accumulation criteria (excluding centralized exchanges and showing minimal outflows) hit a new high, holding 22.75 million ETH as of June 30. That’s a 35.97% jump from 16.73 million ETH at the start of the month, marking the highest monthly gain ever recorded in the ETH Cohort Study.

Source: https://cryptoquant.com/

These same addresses also logged the largest single-month accumulation in ETH history, adding over 6 million ETH in June alone. Their average acquisition cost, or Realized Price, stood at $2,114.70 by July 1, giving these holders a healthy unrealized margin, though price analysis is secondary here. Meanwhile, staking activity also soared. Liquid staking grew by nearly 1 million ETH in June, rising from 34.55 million to a record 35.56 million ETH by July 1. Lido and Binance ETH Staking remain the top destinations, driven by their scale and institutional-grade offerings. It’s clear that while the price remains subdued, Ethereum’s fundamentals—accumulation, staking, and institutional activity—are in full ascent, hinting at a potential shift beneath the surface.

Mark Your Calendars

Economic Data Releases:

  • July 9, 2025 (Wednesday): Minutes of Fed’s May FOMC meeting

Token Unlock

  • July 5, 2025: ENA (ENA) unlocks $47.93 m (2.82 % of market cap)
  • July 9, 2025: MOVE (MOVE) unlocks $8.49 m (1.92 % of market cap)
  • July 10, 2025: IMX (IMX) unlocks $11.32 m (1.31 % of market cap)