This Week’s Recap

Bitcoin Market Analysis

Bitcoin gained nearly 3.3% over the past week, climbing from around $79,600 to $85,900, but is now confronting a major resistance zone between $87,000 and $90,000. While the recent rally filled a key price gap left from November 2024, the broader technical setup remains cautious. The 200-day simple moving average (SMA), now positioned near $87,000, has flipped from support into resistance. This, along with the $90,000 horizontal resistance, marks a critical test for BTC’s short-term trajectory. Despite breaking above a descending trendline, price action is approaching a decision point where it may either consolidate or reverse.

Source: https://altfins.com/technical-analysis

Momentum indicators show early signs of exhaustion. The MACD remains in bullish territory but is inflecting downward as histogram bars shrink, while RSI holds in a neutral range. Trend analysis suggests a neutral short-term trend, but both medium- and long-term structures remain firmly bearish. A retracement toward the $75,000 support zone would align with both technical and structural patterns and could offer a strong entry opportunity with upside potential to $97,000 if BTC regains strength. Until BTC decisively breaks above $90K, traders should remain cautious and prepared for renewed downside pressure.

Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin has faced steady selling pressure, but it’s not coming from whales or long-term holders. On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that short-term holders (STHs) have been the dominant force, offloading an average of ~930 BTC/day, compared to only ~529 BTC/day from long-term holders (LTHs). This reflects typical profit-taking or fear from recent market participants, while conviction among experienced holders remains intact.

Source Cryptoquant.com | @Crazzyblock

Wallet cohort breakdown from April 1 onward further confirms this pattern. Smaller holders — shrimps (<1 BTC) and fish (10–100 BTC) — have sold the most, averaging 480 BTC/day and 341 BTC/day, respectively. Sharks (100–1,000 BTC) added another 402 BTC/day, while whales (>1,000 BTC) have remained largely inactive, selling only 70 BTC/day. This suggests the current pullback is a retail and mid-tier driven shakeout, not a broad exit by institutional capital or long-term participants. As Bitcoin consolidates near key resistance levels, this seller profile signals emotional selling rather than a structural trend reversal.

Source Cryptoquant.com | @Gaah

Bitcoin’s MVRV MA30d has now declined into the lower bound of its neutral range (1.8–2.1), its lowest level in six months. Historically, this region has acted as a springboard for price reversals, often signaling a pause in sell pressure and paving the way for trend continuation. The current MVRV reading implies that many investors, especially recent entrants, are near break-even or underwater, which typically aligns with periods of market exhaustion. Similar conditions in past cycles — including the correction to $50K — preceded a strong recovery. While sentiment remains fearful, this indicator suggests the groundwork for a potential bullish rebound is forming.

Ethereum Market Analysis

Ethereum is currently consolidating between $1,500 and $1,680, after rebounding from a fresh 52-week low of $1,418 hit earlier this month. This marks a drawdown of over 65% from its $4,000 high in December 2024, bringing the asset back to October 2023 price levels. Technically, ETH remains locked in a Channel Down pattern — a structure that signals sustained downward pressure until a confirmed breakout. Price is testing the upper boundary of this channel, and a successful breakout could trigger a short-term relief rally toward the $1,900 resistance. The RSI has rebounded from oversold conditions (~30), suggesting the recent bounce could have legs, especially if supported by improving sentiment or catalysts like the potential approval of ETH Spot ETFs with staking.

Source: https://altfins.com/technical-analysis

Momentum and trend structure, however, remain decisively bearish. Short-, medium-, and long-term trends are all classified as strongly down, according to both moving average crossovers and broader pattern context. Support levels are now anchored at $1,500 and $1,400, while resistance remains heavy at $1,900 and $2,150. The MACD continues to show slight bearish divergence, and the RSI hovers in neutral territory. While short-term volatility may present upside opportunities, the broader structure demands caution. A clear break above the channel — ideally supported by volume — would be the signal to shift bias, with $1,900 as the immediate upside target. Until then, ETH is trading within a high-risk environment shaped by both technical pressure and macro uncertainty.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has released a new roadmap focused on improving privacy across the Ethereum ecosystem. His proposals aim to integrate privacy-enhancing technologies like Railgun and Privacy Pools directly into wallets, enabling features like “send from shielded balance” by default without requiring users to adopt separate tools. He also suggested fundamental changes to how DeFi and decentralized apps function, such as isolating activity to one address per application to reduce traceability. Though these changes may reduce user convenience, Buterin argues they are necessary to eliminate public links between user activities.

FOCIL functionality diagram. Source: Ethereum Research

In addition to application-level changes, the roadmap calls for deeper protocol upgrades. Key proposals include EIP-7701 for enhancing account abstraction to support private transactions without intermediaries, and FOCIL to ensure censorship resistance for anonymized transactions. On the infrastructure side, Buterin proposes replacing today’s RPC setups with trusted execution environments in the short term and, eventually, with cryptographically secure private information retrieval systems. These upgrades aim to safeguard user data while interacting with Ethereum, complemented by techniques like using multiple RPCs and mixnets. Together, these steps represent a multifaceted push to bake privacy into Ethereum at every level.

Mark Your Calendars

Economic Data Releases:

  • April 21, 2025 (Monday):
    • U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (March): Previous -0.3%
  • April 23, 2025 (Wednesday):
    • Fed Beige Book release
    • Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks
  • April 24, 2025 (Thursday):
    • Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ending April 19)
  • April 25, 2025 (Friday):
    • Consumer Sentiment (Final, April): Previous 50.8

Token Unlock

  • April 18, 2025 (Friday):
    • TRUMP: $337.23m worth of tokens unlocking (21.48% of circulating supply)
    • FTN: $84.00m worth of tokens unlocking (4.65% of circulating supply)
  • April 22, 2025 (Friday):
    • MRS: $10.08m worth of tokens unlocking (1.37% of circulating supply)