This Week’s Recap

  • Senator Elizabeth Warren has called on Trump’s crypto czar, David Sacks, to disclose his financial holdings, citing potential conflicts of interest. She questions whether policy decisions could benefit existing crypto holders and urges transparency regarding Sacks’ role in shaping the administration’s crypto reserve.
  • Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is pushing to cut crypto tax rates from 55% to a flat 20%, aligning it with stock taxation. The party is gathering public feedback until March 31 before submitting the proposal to regulators. (decrypt.co)
  • Thailand’s Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has officially added Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC to its list of approved cryptocurrencies for trading on regulated exchanges. This decision, effective from March 16, 2025, follows a public consultation in February where the majority supported the proposal. Previously, only Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Stellar (XLM), and certain tokens used in the Bank of Thailand’s settlement system were approved. By recognizing USDT and USDC, Thailand aligns with global trends where stablecoins play a critical role in crypto trading and payments.
  • Rex Shares and Osprey Funds File for MOVE ETF as Movement Launches Mainnet Beta. Investment managers Rex Shares and Osprey Funds have filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch an exchange-traded fund (ETF) tracking the price performance of Movement Network’s native token, MOVE. This filing coincides with the public mainnet beta launch of Movement, an Ethereum layer-2 network built using MoveVM. The proposed REX-Osprey MOVE ETF would invest at least 80% of its assets in MOVE or related instruments, aiming to provide traditional investors with regulated exposure to emerging blockchain technologies.
  • The Utah Senate has passed the “Blockchain and Digital Innovation Amendments” bill (HB230), which provides residents with rights such as Bitcoin mining, node operation, and staking participation. However, a key provision allowing the state treasurer to invest up to 5% of certain public funds in Bitcoin was removed prior to the bill’s passage. This amendment reflects concerns over the volatility of digital assets and potential fiscal risks. The bill now awaits Governor Spencer Cox’s signature to become law.
  • Ethereum has seen its largest weekly outflow since December 2022, with approximately $1.8 billion worth of ETH withdrawn from exchanges. This significant movement is often viewed as a bullish indicator, suggesting that investors are moving assets to cold storage in anticipation of future price increases. Despite this, Ethereum’s price has declined by 51% over the past 83 days, currently consolidating around the $2,000 mark. Technical analysts note the emergence of a diamond pattern on Ethereum’s four-hour chart, which could signal a potential 20% rally toward $2,600 if validated.
  • CleanSpark, a prominent Bitcoin mining company, is set to join the S&P SmallCap 600 Index effective before the market opens on March 24, 2025. This inclusion reflects CleanSpark’s consistent performance and is expected to enhance its visibility within the investment community. The S&P SmallCap 600 Index measures the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity market, and CleanSpark’s addition underscores its growth and operational excellence in the Bitcoin mining industry.
  • The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is set to vote on an updated version of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act, aiming to delineate regulatory authority between state and federal entities. The revised bill proposes that stablecoin issuers with a market capitalization under $10 billion be regulated at the state level, while larger issuers would fall under federal oversight. Additionally, the legislation introduces enhanced transparency and enforcement measures, such as mandatory monthly liquidity reports and compliance with transaction freeze orders. These updates seek to bolster consumer protection and financial stability within the rapidly evolving stablecoin market.
  • In a strategic move to expand its Bitcoin financing operations, Cantor Fitzgerald has collaborated with digital asset custodians Anchorage Digital and Copper.co. This partnership aims to provide institutional investors with secure and efficient Bitcoin custody solutions, leveraging the advanced security infrastructures of both Anchorage Digital, recognized as the only federally chartered crypto bank in the U.S. and Copper.co. The initiative underscores Cantor Fitzgerald’s commitment to integrating traditional financial services with emerging digital asset markets, offering clients enhanced security and operational support for their cryptocurrency investments.
  • Global investment firm VanEck has registered the “VanEck Avalanche ETF” in Delaware, signaling potential plans for a spot AVAX ETF. This move comes as Avalanche’s native token, AVAX, has experienced a significant decline, dropping 55% since the start of the year. Despite the challenging market conditions, VanEck’s initiative underscores its commitment to expanding crypto investment products.
  • In a bipartisan decision, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 292-132 to repeal the IRS’s DeFi broker rule, which would have mandated decentralized finance platforms to report detailed customer transactions to the IRS starting in 2027. Critics argued that compliance would be burdensome and could stifle innovation. The Senate had previously passed the resolution with a 70-27 vote. The measure now awaits President Donald Trump’s signature, who is expected to approve it, thereby preventing the IRS from implementing similar rules in the future.
  • Ethereum’s Holesky testnet has achieved finality after experiencing disruptions following the Pectra upgrade on February 24. The issues were traced to a configuration bug in the client software, not the upgrade itself. Developers have since stabilized the network, allowing for the resumption of testing for the Pectra upgrade, which aims to introduce enhancements like gas payments in non-ETH tokens and increased staking limits
  • The prolonged legal battle between Ripple Labs and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is reportedly approaching its end, with negotiations focusing on vacating a prior ruling that imposed a $125 million penalty for institutional XRP sales. This anticipated resolution has positively impacted XRP’s market performance, reflecting investor optimism about Ripple’s future prospects.

Bitcoin Market Analysis

On March 7, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order establishing the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, marking a major shift in how the government handles seized digital assets. Instead of auctioning confiscated Bitcoin, the administration will retain 200,000 BTC (~$17 billion) as a long-term strategic asset. This move positions Bitcoin alongside gold and foreign currency reserves, reinforcing its long-term viability. The executive order also establishes the U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile, managing seized cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA),further legitimizing crypto as a state-recognized asset class.

Market reaction has been mixed, with Bitcoin initially surging to $95K after the March 3 announcement before pulling back to $81K as investors had anticipated direct U.S. purchases. While the executive order directs the U.S. Treasury to explore budget-neutral expansion, no immediate acquisitions are planned. This is in contract to Senator Cynthia Lummis’s BITCOIN Act that proposes a far more ambitious approach, accumulating 5% of Bitcoin’s total supply by revaluing gold certificates held by the Federal Reserve. If implemented, this could unlock billions for Bitcoin purchases without new taxation. As the U.S. moves to treat Bitcoin as a strategic asset, other nations may be forced to reassess its role in global finance, potentially tightening supply and reinforcing Bitcoin’s long-term investment case.

Bitcoin’s volatility continues over the past week, ranging from $91,611 to a low of $77,186, before recovering to $83,660. The sell-off was driven by ETF outflows, macro uncertainty, and profit-taking after a strong rally. The price briefly surged near $95,000 following the U.S. government’s announcement of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, but failed to sustain momentum, leading to a sharp drop below $90,000. The $86,500 level remains a key resistance, with market participants watching for a decisive break to confirm strength. If Bitcoin reclaims this level with volume, it could push toward $90,000–$92,000, while continued weakness could lead to a retest of $80,000 support or even a move down to $73,000 if sellers regain control. Despite the pullback, on-chain data shows long-term holders accumulating, indicating confidence in the larger trend.

Source: https://altfins.com/technical-analysis

Bitcoin’s momentum remains bearish but is showing early signs of recovery. The MACD line is still below the MACD signal line, suggesting potential upside momentum. The RSI across multiple timeframes (9, 14, and 25) is neutral, meaning BTC is neither oversold nor overbought. However, RSI divergence is showing both bullish and hidden bearish signals, indicating possible trend exhaustion. The Ultimate Oscillator and Momentum (MOM) indicators are bearish, reinforcing the short-term downtrend. Funding rates and open interest data suggest a potential short squeeze if Bitcoin rebounds from current levels. A confirmed reclaim of $86,500 resistance could push BTC toward $90K–$92K, while failure to hold $80K support could trigger further downside toward $74K.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

Macroeconomic trends remain a key driver for Bitcoin’s price action, particularly in light of the February CPI report, which showed a 2.8% YoY increase, slightly below market expectations. Core CPI also dropped to 3.1% YoY, indicating a gradual easing of inflation. This data supports the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on rate cuts, with analysts predicting that the Fed may hold rates steady in the short term while waiting for further economic data. However, concerns remain over new trade tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which could increase production costs and reignite inflationary pressures in the coming months. If inflation continues to trend lower, a gradual rate-cut cycle by Q3 2025 could materialize, making risk assets like Bitcoin more attractive to institutional investors. Historically, Bitcoin has performed well in low-interest-rate environments, as cheaper capital encourages risk-taking in speculative markets. If the Fed signals a dovish shift, Bitcoin could see renewed bullish momentum, potentially reigniting its pre-halving rally and driving fresh capital inflows into the crypto sector.

Raoul Pal attributes Bitcoin’s recent correction to tightening global liquidity, driven by a stronger dollar and higher interest rates in late 2024, mirroring the 2017 cycle under the Trump administration. However, M2 money supply is now rebounding, signaling that financial conditions are set to ease. Historically, Bitcoin’s price lags M2 expansion by about 10 weeks, suggesting that a recovery could be imminent. The chart from Global Macro Investor reinforces this, showing Bitcoin’s strong correlation with M2 trends. As liquidity returns, Bitcoin’s macro setup remains structurally bullish, aligning with the long-term pattern of liquidity-driven rallies following periods of contraction.

Source: https://x.com/RaoulGMI

This liquidity shift coincides with Bitcoin’s 2024 halving, a fundamental event that reduces new supply issuance, historically triggering major price expansions within 12–18 months. Every past halving has set the stage for exponential growth, and this cycle aligns with M2 expansion and potential U.S. policy shifts favoring crypto adoption. Bitcoin remains within its logarithmic regression trend, with historical targets ranging between $210K and $805K, depending on liquidity conditions and market momentum. The ISM index, a key economic cycle indicator, also suggests that risk assets like Bitcoin could benefit as economic expansion resumes into 2026. Pal’s analysis emphasizes patience—Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory remains intact, with macro forces setting the stage for the next major bull phase.

Source: https://x.com/RaoulGMI

Ethereum Market Analysis

Ethereum has remained under heavy selling pressure this week, continuing its strong downtrend within a Channel Down pattern. The price declined from $2,241 to a low of $1,852, briefly attempting to hold $1,900 as support but struggling to reclaim key resistance levels. ETH’s 200-day SMA at $2,899 remains far above current price levels, reinforcing the overall bearish trend. Technical indicators suggest momentum is weakening but could be nearing a reversal. The MACD histogram is rising, signaling a potential shift in trend, while RSI at 33.09 suggests ETH is approaching oversold territory. If ETH can break out from the Channel Down structure, it could target $2,150 as initial resistance, followed by $2,400. However, failure to hold $1,900 could expose the $1,500 support zone as the next downside target.

Source: https://altfins.com/technical-analysis

From a trade setup perspective, Ethereum remains in a strong downtrend across short, medium, and long-term timeframes, making a breakout confirmation critical before taking a bullish position. Traders looking for trend continuation trades can wait for lower high rejections near resistance, while breakout traders should watch for a move above $2,150 with increasing volume. The MACD suggests momentum may be inflecting, and RSI remains just above oversold levels, indicating potential for a short-term relief rally. Given Ethereum’s structural downtrend, risk management is key—a failed breakout could send price lower toward $1,500, where strong support exists.

On the fundamental side, Ethereum has seen $1.8 billion in exchange outflows, the largest since 2022, suggesting investors are moving ETH to cold storage for long-term holding despite price weakness. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s Holesky testnet has achieved finality after resolving issues related to the Pectra upgrade, allowing developers to proceed with testing enhancements such as gas payments in non-ETH tokens and increased staking limits. Additionally, discussions around Ethereum scaling have shifted toward hardware improvements, emphasizing the need for specialized hardware solutions to increase throughput beyond software-based Layer 2 scaling. While price action remains bearish in the short term, Ethereum’s long-term development and liquidity trends suggest continued network growth and investor confidence.

Mark Your Calendars

Economic Data Releases:

  • March 20, 2025 (Friday): Initial Jobless Claims for the week of March 15, 2025 
  • March 20, 2025 (Friday): U.S. Leading Economic Indicators for February 2025

Token Unlock

  • March 15, 2025:
    • STRK: $10.75m worth of tokens unlocking (2.33% of circulating supply).
    • SEI: $15.16m worth of tokens unlocking (1.77% of circulating supply).
  • March 16, 2025:
    • ARB: $32.62m worth of tokens unlocking (2.17% of circulating supply).
  • March 18, 2025:
    • FTN: $79.80m worth of tokens unlocking (4.66% of circulating supply).